American Pharoah: Triple Crown Winner: NAY or YAY?

[Secondbest]

Well. If I've learned one thing in my years of betting horses its that in the Belmont nobody knows Anything until that last 1/16. those last 6-7 seconds will tell the tale

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I think that the chances are fifty fifty or better for having a new TC winner this year.. The only obstacle I might see, has to do with the breeding of AP, but I think it is very possible to outrun his ancestors and score a big win...

His Grandad won the Belmont.

[Dahoss2002]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And I might even bet against him in three weeks. but that doesn't mean I don't think he's going to win.
.

I tried that yesterday

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Dahoss2002

I think he does. Last one I felt this way about was Big Brown. AP might have a better jockey

Big Brown had that bad foot, if not for that I think he would have won easily. If Chrome doesn't get stepped on , it's hard to imagine him losing considering how well he ran .

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I wrote on this very board prior to the Kentucky Derby that if American Pharoah wins the Kentucky Derby, he'll win the Triple Crown.

Now, I have yet to actually PICK American Pharoah on top in my analysis, but that's simply a matter of numbers, and numbers never tell the whole story. But when it comes to betting, I'm almost always a numbers man, which is probably why I still have a day job...

I'm sticking with my opinion. I paid close attention to how AP looked coming home yesterday down the stretch...what I saw was one easy going racehorse...if that was a super fast early pace and a super slow final quarter, it sure wasn't represented in his way of going...his late strides...all looked pretty damn magnificent if you ask me.

Barring some sort of Big Brown fiasco, American Pharoah is our next Triple Crown winner. And I might even bet against him in three weeks. but that doesn't mean I don't think he's going to win.

I think one of the keys to all of this was AP's injury last fall and his subsequent 168 day layoff. Yesterday was only the fourth start since they took him off the shelf. He had every right to improve or to at least not regress off the Derby. And now he has three weeks off after what appeared to me to be a fairly easy race.

No doubt in my mind my earlier prediction comes true.

Pace:
Being a numbers guy, what are your feelings on these speed figures like Bris and Beyer that have to be adjusted (up or down) five or more points after races like this?

Personally, it renders the formula useless if it is constantly adjusted after the races. For the reason, I tend to put little faith in those adjusted figures.

Think Bris changed the speed rating on the Preakness from 95 up to 100 from a post I saw on twitter.

[boys at tosconova]

desormeaux waits, desormeaux waits. desormeaux waits w/ big brown on the outside

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by RacingFan1992

Thank You! Spectacular Bid, Pleasant Colony, and Funny Cide all ran at Belmont at 2 with a total of 4 out of 5 wins. The three horse who beat them also race at Belmont at 2 with 3 out of the 6 starts being wins.

On five occasions there have been horse who were going for the Triple Crown and never raced at Belmont and they were beaten by horses who did race at Belmont at 2.

I keep telling people Belmont is DIFFERENT. It is a beast that chews you up and spits you out.

Lots of people are going to ignore what I've laid out, but I'm going to have to see it to believe that a horse can go there cold turkey and do it (especially with a rider who has at no point ridden there on a daily basis)

You have to take everything you have seen prior to this race and throw it out the window. Especially yesterday, with that rain. some of these guys need to get a grip, of course half the field was going to pull a crap race, look at the conditions. When was the last time we anointed a super horse based on how he beat 7 rivals in a hurricane.

Maybe AP will prove me wrong, I'm just one guy from California, but seeing that track in person I won't believe that a horse can win a race of this magnitude first time over that track until I see it.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

desormeaux waits, desormeaux waits. desormeaux waits w/ big brown on the outside

What about Desormeaux on Real Quiet?
He didn't wait long enough.

Now, that was a heart breaker.

[sbcaris]

RexPhinny: Your sample size is exceedingly small. To say that on 5 occasions horses going for the Triple crown that did not race at Belmont were beaten by a horse that did run over the Belmont track.

The Belmont is a big race every year and it has been won MANY times by a horse that never ran there until Belmont day. Here are a few examples of Belmont winners that never raced at Belmont Park until the Belmont stakes:

2011-Ruler on Ice
2009-Summer Bird
2007-Rags to Riches
2002-Sarava
2000-Commendable
1998-Victory Gallop
1997-Touch Gold
1988-Risen Star
1990-Go and Go

Certainly based on the data above-- running at Belmont Park in a race is certainly NOT required for a horse to win the Belmont Stakes.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Why there are so many nay sayers?

American Pharoah is a GRET RACE HORSE and I rooting for him to win the TC..

It is going to be good for the sport and for everyone else involved..

I am so surprised from the negativity I can see when we talk about a possible next TC winner that I wrote a blog post about

What is your definition of a great race horse?

I wont consider him great until he wins the TC AND beats older horses in the Breeders Cup. Plus, if his final times are never that impressive, he will have to win multiple races as a 4 year old like the other great ones did. He is far from great at this point.

[BlinkersOn]

I would like to think we are going to have a TC winner. If it went on looks alone, AP is the best muscled horse I've seen in years. If anyone can do it, I think he can. That being said, I know there are well rested horses that could well spoil it. I'm going to keep on hoping he can do it though. He's certainly a gorgeous specimen of a horse. He will be retiring to stud whether he wins or not. Today's horses are bred for speed, and not stamina. I hope he proves to be the horse to break the hex that has been winning the TC for the first time in years.

[Robert Goren]

He was a fresh horse going into the derby and Neither the derby or the Preakness was especially tiring. He looks like he wants more distance. It all depends if he was injured in the Preakness or he gets injured in between races. I think he has about a 60% chance if he is healthy. It is tough to run 3 races in 5 weeks while on Lasix.

[MutuelClerk]

A Triple Crown winner would be good for the game obviously. I just wish it wasn't Baffert or Pletcher training. That's why I wanted CC to really win last year. In hindsight hearing the CC owner spout off the way he did I'm glad he didn't win either. I think Materiality might be AP's biggest challenge. I believe he'll handle the distance and I don't think we've seen his best yet. The huge field in the derby will give him experience and hopefully make him a better racehorse. MY other sleeper is Keen Ice. I liked the way he finished the Derby. I usually root for a TC winner but knowing it's Baffert. I just can't do it.

[horses4courses]

AP strikes me as having an ideal running style for Belmont.
High cruising speed on, or near, the lead.

Forget about closers in the Belmont - unless there's
an insanely fast pace that causes the race to fall apart.

Should it come up wet there on June 6th - look out

Frosted and Materialty appear to be the main competition.
I'm just not sure that they can hang with this horse, though.

[Zaf]

I voted Yes ! A triple crown winner is long overdue. Haven't seen anything in this crop yet that can run with him.