View Poll Results: Will he win it?
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Yes
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114 |
54.29% |
No
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96 |
45.71% |
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05-17-2015, 10:05 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,956
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Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113
When American Pharoah made his first appearance at Pimlico there was one guy in the stands watching with great interest. He had a one solemn word response when the horse passed by.
"F**k."
That guy was Gary Stevens.
He knew his horse was beat days before the race.
It's about time you all start to realize the same. If the horse you are backing on top is not American Pharoah, you are beat.
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Same thing was said about CC,I'll have another,Big Brown, Smarty Jones The 1 1/2 miles gets them
He beat probably one of the worst fields in Preakness history-4 of the horses didn't belong & one of those ran 2nd
I'll be betting against
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05-17-2015, 10:07 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Michigan
Posts: 726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Chrome worshipers said the same last year. Problem is I cannot find a Tonalist this year so you might be right. Slowest Preakness in 65 years so there is still a chance something is better than AP out there.
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My pick is Frosted or Mubtaahij. Frosted ran at Belmont and Mubtaahij took down older horses so those are my picks. You never know Madefromlucky might get a jump on AP who he has faced before in the Rebel Stakes. This might be redemption for Madefromlucky Here's to TAP and DWL entering their horses. i hope they run him into the ground.
Last edited by RacingFan1992; 05-17-2015 at 10:09 AM.
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05-17-2015, 10:09 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,732
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Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113
Why will he win the Triple Crown? He's far and away better than anything he's going to face. He'll get a work over the track. That is all he needs.
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right after the race i was thinking how is going to get beat in New York. i went back and watched the replay and saw the first quarter of the race and then the last quarter. he put MR Z away pretty fast and once again down the lane it looked like he plenty left along with the gallop out. for a horse i hated 2 weeks ago, i really can't find any fault with him. if the horses that sat out the Preakness wanted any shot at him by waiting for the Belmont, they just blew their chances, AMERICAN PHAROAH got better after the Preakness. if it was my choice i wouldn't run against him with those fresh horses, and they might be looking at it the same way.
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05-17-2015, 10:27 AM
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#19
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Chrome worshipers said the same last year. Problem is I cannot find a Tonalist this year so you might be right. Slowest Preakness in 65 years so there is still a chance something is better than AP out there.
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Madefromlucky?
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-17-2015, 10:28 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Kansas
Posts: 1,833
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I sure didn't think Chrome would do it....but I have a different feeling about AP. What a horse! I voted yes.
__________________
D. Wayne Lukas-- "People have opinions - horses have the facts."
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05-17-2015, 10:36 AM
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#21
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upthecreek
Same thing was said about CC,I'll have another,Big Brown, Smarty Jones The 1 1/2 miles gets them
He beat probably one of the worst fields in Preakness history-4 of the horses didn't belong & one of those ran 2nd
I'll be betting against
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Most of the triple crown winners also raced against horses that didn't belong..Have you looked at some of the horses Seattle Slew,Count Fleet,Sir Barton,Assault,Omaha beat?
Before the Kentucky Derby this was considered one of the best crop of 3 year Olds in a long time....AP is making it look easy now the tune has change about who he's running against.
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05-17-2015, 10:37 AM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,898
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I get the time in the Preakness may have been due to the weather but the Derby time was just terrible and they went very slow late I think. For that reason, I think a fresher horse like Materiality or Frosted can get him at the longer distance.
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05-17-2015, 10:44 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kash$
Before the Kentucky Derby this was considered one of the best crop of 3 year Olds in a long time....AP is making it look easy now the tune has change about who he's running against.
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Refer to my post prior to the Derby when I clearly stated this crop is grossly overrated. Most of these cannot even eclipse a 100 BSF. It's kind of a joke. AP runs the slowest Preakness in 65 years beating a nw2 and is now a super horse.
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05-17-2015, 10:59 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 332
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uncbossfan
Before yesterday I was thinking he'd win the Preakness and fall sort in the Belmont. After that race though, I think he is going to do it. He just exudes greatness.
Most importantly tho, I hope people finally start getting the narrative right about this triple crown drought. It is not that these derby and Preakness winners aren't as great as past winners or that the 3 races in 5 weeks is too much, although it is very challenging. It has more to do with Belmont field size than anything else. No disrespect to some of the TC winners from much earlier yrs, but if smarty jones or cal chrome would've run against 3 and 4 horse fields like some of them did we'd have had many more TC winners the past decade.
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And not just the Belmont. The Ky Derby field was smaller for many of the TC winners; the average Derby field for a TC winner is ~ 13.5.
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05-17-2015, 10:59 AM
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#25
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Why there are so many nay sayers?
American Pharoah is a GRET RACE HORSE and I rooting for him to win the TC..
It is going to be good for the sport and for everyone else involved..
I am so surprised from the negativity I can see when we talk about a possible next TC winner that I wrote a blog post about
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whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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05-17-2015, 11:16 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,540
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Why there are so many nay sayers?
American Pharoah is a GRET RACE HORSE and I rooting for him to win the TC..
It is going to be good for the sport and for everyone else involved..
I am so surprised from the negativity I can see when we talk about a possible next TC winner that I wrote a blog post about
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I feel that it's erroneous to compare soccer to horse racing in this instance...because -- unlike horse racing -- soccer's recent stars have eclipsed the superstars of yesterday. In fact...Lionel Messi is hailed as the greatest soccer player of all time.
As far as doubting American Pharoah as a TC winner, I must confess to being one of the doubters...but it isn't my fault. My long memory is to blame.
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Live to play another day.
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05-17-2015, 11:22 AM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
In fact...Lionel Messi is hailed as the greatest soccer player of all time.
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That's because younger generations have forgotten the great Pele.
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05-17-2015, 11:27 AM
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#28
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
As far as doubting American Pharoah as a TC winner, I must confess to being one of the doubters...but it isn't my fault. My long memory is to blame.
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I think that the chances are fifty fifty or better for having a new TC winner this year.. The only obstacle I might see, has to do with the breeding of AP, but I think it is very possible to outrun his ancestors and score a big win...
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whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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05-17-2015, 11:29 AM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 8,429
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The Belmont is a tough tricky race but I think he'll win it. He's already soundly beaten the horses he'll face and under a variety of circumstances. Plus he's a fast, graceful, and athletic mover with great composure on the track.
I don't take the historical approach to handicapping, I look at these as discrete events. It takes a special horse to win the triple crown and I think we have one this time.
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05-17-2015, 12:30 PM
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#30
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,479
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I wrote on this very board prior to the Kentucky Derby that if American Pharoah wins the Kentucky Derby, he'll win the Triple Crown.
Now, I have yet to actually PICK American Pharoah on top in my analysis, but that's simply a matter of numbers, and numbers never tell the whole story. But when it comes to betting, I'm almost always a numbers man, which is probably why I still have a day job...
I'm sticking with my opinion. I paid close attention to how AP looked coming home yesterday down the stretch...what I saw was one easy going racehorse...if that was a super fast early pace and a super slow final quarter, it sure wasn't represented in his way of going...his late strides...all looked pretty damn magnificent if you ask me.
Barring some sort of Big Brown fiasco, American Pharoah is our next Triple Crown winner. And I might even bet against him in three weeks. but that doesn't mean I don't think he's going to win.
I think one of the keys to all of this was AP's injury last fall and his subsequent 168 day layoff. Yesterday was only the fourth start since they took him off the shelf. He had every right to improve or to at least not regress off the Derby. And now he has three weeks off after what appeared to me to be a fairly easy race.
No doubt in my mind my earlier prediction comes true.
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 05-17-2015 at 12:33 PM.
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