American Pharoah splashes home first in Preakness

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by depalma113

The race was run in a bog and had one of the fastest half miles in Preakness history.

I really don't get this obsession with final times without perspective.

That's 65 years of perspective. Rain, sun, clouds, fog, whatever. It was a slow finish. The winner would have likely been beat by open lengths in an average year with that time.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

That's 65 years of perspective. Rain, sun, clouds, fog, whatever. It was a slow finish. The winner would have likely been beat by open lengths in an average year with that time.

but it wasn't an average year, so what are you comparing it to really??

[pandy]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

That's 65 years of perspective. Rain, sun, clouds, fog, whatever. It was a slow finish. The winner would have likely been beat by open lengths in an average year with that time.

The reality is, it was essentially a 3 horse race, one of the contenders had an impossible wide trip and the other was trained by the same trainer, so he wasn't about to go up and challenge his stablemate, and the winner loved the slop. Let's not forget, he won by 5 lengths but with the exception of Dortmund, who had no rally, the other horses weren't top colts so he drew away from nothing. To me, it was deceiving. It looked better than it was. However, that doesn't mean that he can't win the Belmont, if he faces a weak field again he can.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by pandy

The reality is, it was essentially a 3 horse race, one of the contenders had an impossible wide trip and the other was trained by the same trainer, so he wasn't about to go up and challenge his stablemate, and the winner loved the slop. Let's not forget, he won by 5 lengths but with the exception of Dortmund, who had no rally, the other horses weren't top colts so he drew away from nothing. To me, it was deceiving. It looked better than it was. However, that doesn't mean that he can't win the Belmont, if he faces a weak field again he can.

I really cannot follow what you are saying here Pandy..

AP won impressively the Preakness (which was an eight and not three horse race) continuing his stellar career in the most convincing way... To me he was not deceiving at all, as he looked as exactly what he is: The best 3yo in training

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Not sure about greatness, well let me put it to you a different way. There have been four horses that have entered the Belmont having won at least 5 Grade Ones.

Secretariat (7), Seattle Slew (5), Affirmed (5), Spectacular Bid (8)

American Pharoah (5) is now the 5th.

The company he is keeping is the Mt. Rushmore of horse racing over that last four decades.

Come on. American Pharoah on racing's Mt. Rushmore, alongside Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Spectacular Bid? Grade 1 wins aren't the end-all...especially when they are restricted.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Come on. American Pharoah on racing's Mt. Rushmore, alongside Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Spectacular Bid? Grade 1 wins aren't the end-all...especially when they are restricted.

Seattle Slew was considered by MANY to be slow and unworthy...raced against nothing as a 3yo...all through his Triple Crown victories. Correct me if I'm wrong here.

Do you consider Seattle Slew to be unworthy of racing's Mt. Rushmore?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

To me he was not deceiving at all, as he looked as exactly what he is: The best 3yo in training

There have been other 3 year-olds who towered over their competition, and who won the first two legs of the TC while recording much faster ratings than AP. They strutted onto the Belmont strip surrounded by all kinds of optimism and accolades...but they were all defeated by horses who could not get anywhere near them previously.

One more time, I say...

[Appy]

NOW a number of people are saying AP's competition wasn't much. But pre-Derby this has been touted as one of the highest quality 3 yr old crops in years. AP is the one who has excelled, and looks entirely capable of doing the TC deed. There is a different feel to this Derby/Preakness winner's attempt than in previous years.
I didn't get to see the Preakness until replays after our storms let up, but two things about the race stood out to me more than anything else. One was the fact that this time Espinoza RODE the horse, using his crop only for a cue giving devise. Not once did he use it as a whip. Great to see that.
The second thing was Firing Line nearly going down coming out of the gate. Same problem Materiality had in the Derby. I see that as a valid excuse for sub-par performances from these two horses.
Sincere congrats to all AP connections, but especially to Espinoza on a job very well done.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Seattle Slew was considered by MANY to be slow and unworthy...raced against nothing as a 3yo...all through his Triple Crown victories. Correct me if I'm wrong here.

Do you consider Seattle Slew to be unworthy of racing's Mt. Rushmore?

No, I consider Slew to be worthy...that's why I placed him right between Secretariat and The Bid. But American Pharoah isn't of the same caliber, IMO.

The number of Grade 1 wins doesn't tell the whole story...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Seattle Slew was considered by MANY to be slow and unworthy...raced against nothing as a 3yo...all through his Triple Crown victories. Correct me if I'm wrong here.

I don't think Slew was considered slow by "MANY". Beyer was the most vocal one, and he was one-dimensional in his horse racing opinions at that time...but he was ridiculed by other, more experienced players. I doubt that Beyer would make the same mistake today.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Seattle Slew was considered by MANY to be slow and unworthy...raced against nothing as a 3yo...all through his Triple Crown victories. Correct me if I'm wrong here.

Do you consider Seattle Slew to be unworthy of racing's Mt. Rushmore?

I do. He isn't close to the top 4 all time. Quite good though.

But you are correct that there was a lot of skepticism when he was in the TC. He didn't really seal his reputation until he beat Affirmed.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

These are independent trials.

Not totally. The conditions of the Belmont Stakes for a triple crown attempt are fixed. Tge horses are different though.

[pandy]

I was at the Belmont for Slew's win and I didn't talk to a single person that didn't think he was a lock. Everyone was just there to watch him seal the deal. Slew and Secretariat were the only two horses that won the first two legs that I felt were locks in the Belmont. I thought the Derby was definitely a solid win for A.P. but the Preakness was not a good field, overall. As I said, once Firing Line got that wide trip, A.P. only had one horse, his stablemate, to beat.

[DeltaLover]

[QUOTE=thaskalos]There have been other 3 year-olds who towered over their competition, and who won the first two legs of the TC while recording much faster ratings than AP. They strutted onto the Belmont strip surrounded by all kinds of optimism and accolades...but they were all defeated by horses who could not get anywhere near them previously.

One more time, I say...[/QUOTEt

(1) I am not a firm believer about ratings and I am reluctant to judge a classic horse based on them (see Zenyata)

(2) We should not compare ratings across historical results. What really counts is how AP compares to his rivals (and he is clearly the best).

I think it is a coin flip if we are going to have a TC winner this year

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

These are independent trials.

So true. This historical handicapping theory is like saying that if you toss a coin 9 times and get all heads then the 10th toss cannot come up tails. Each toss is an independent trial just as each independent year is with horses. Elementary law of probability. Something handicappers should familiarize themselves with.