How do you measure your handicapping?

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Overlay

I measure my handicapping by how closely the actual performance of horses or exotic combinations corresponds to the fair odds/payout that I calculate for them based on my handicapping factors and weights.

Yes and as I recall Overlay you always did very well in that contest we used to have on this board leading up to the Kentucky Derby even with a different two players on your team each year.

Your post here though begs the questions "Do you quantify whether or not your performances are matching your predictions for fair odds."
Do you have an index of variation that changes with different types of races, at different distances and on different surfaces? If so, does it change week to week or through the different seasons? If your predictions are out of whack do you change the weight of your predictors?

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Yes and as I recall Overlay you always did very well in that contest we used to have on this board leading up to the Kentucky Derby even with a different two players on your team each year.

Your post here though begs the questions "Do you quantify whether or not your performances are matching your predictions for fair odds."
Do you have an index of variation that changes with different types of races, at different distances and on different surfaces? If so, does it change week to week or through the different seasons? If your predictions are out of whack do you change the weight of your predictors?

Thanks for the positive recollection of past PAIHL performance. (I was all primed to give it another go this year, but I enjoyed the additional time off.)

I take both distance and surface variations into account, and, through compartmentalization of the factors that I use, also have a means of determining which element(s) is/are accounting for statistically-significant observed performance variances as a guide in adjusting weights.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Thanks for the positive recollection of past PAIHL performance. (I was all primed to give it another go this year, but I enjoyed the additional time off.)

I take both distance and surface variations into account, and, through compartmentalization of the factors that I use, also have a means of determining which element(s) is/are accounting for statistically-significant observed performance variances as a guide in adjusting weights.

Thank you

Greyfox

[raybo]

I track all 3 of my top 3 ranked horses by rankings method used, number of plays versus number of races, hit percentages, and ROIs. All by individual track.

I also analyze the actual listing of races played for obvious mutuel outliers, track condition, distance, surface type, class, and day of the week.

[Tom]

Day of the week is new to me the past year.
It has opened my eyes for sure.
The difference between profit and loss might depend when you play your spot plays. I have one at Aqueduct that is pretty good on weekends but dreadful during the week, going back over two years. It is based on class.

[Capper Al]

Playing in contests might be added on the OP list also.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Tom

Day of the week is new to me the past year.
It has opened my eyes for sure.
The difference between profit and loss might depend when you play your spot plays. I have one at Aqueduct that is pretty good on weekends but dreadful during the week, going back over two years. It is based on class.

Almost without fail, every time I test a track, there is one day (or maybe 2 days) in the week that simply do not pay enough to make a profit, regardless of the hit rate. Knowing that in advance automatically puts you on days that have higher average payouts, and in my game that is very important.

I track the days of the week by ">=3/1" winners and ">=6/1" winners ($8 or higher and $14 or higher). It's an eye opener, for sure!

[Poindexter]

Measuring handicapping and measuring my performance are two different things. Measuring handicapping for me has to do with comparing my opinion seeing what happened and ratingmy self. Let's take Santa Anita for Yesterday just to give an example of what I am talking about.

Skip the 1st (obvious favorite won at 1-2). Lousy race.
2nd Race. Liked winning in Fashion. Did not have much of an opinion after that. Winninginfashion paid a nice 6.80-1, got a very comfortable trip and faded. Winner at 2-1 I would not have liked at 2-1 in a million years. No excuse, just lost. One for the crowd.
3rd race. Looked like a 2 horse race to me, Ms. KJ who I liked best and went off at 5-2 and LX Sunrise who went off at 6-5. Got the order wrong as LX sunrise was first and Ms. KJ was end, but brownie points for me on having more seperation of the top two over the 3rd and 4th favorite. Did not even bet the race other than maybe daily doubles none of which hit.

4th race. Loved Two Step Flor at a very nice 5.40-1. He paid a nice 5.40-1, got the lone speed trip I was hoping for, but it was his first start off of a layoff and he obviously needed the race and faded to 3rd. I think it was a good play that just lost. One for the crowd, I will live with it.

5th race. I cut the race off with 4 contenders 1-3-6-8. They managed to run 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th, behind what likely would have been my 5th choice if I chose to go there. My key horse was Sensation Niki who I was hoping would be sent, but unfortunately wasn't the tactics employed. Don't think I was terribly off with my horses coming 2nd to 5th at odds of 7/5, 3.4-1, 9-1 and 9-1, but with the horse I did not use winning and the favorite coming second, I would call that a fairly poor result, but betting wise a disaster as it kills all doubles and pick 3's on top of whatever I lost in the race.

6th race-One of those races that makes you feel like a complete idiot. The crowd bet Forrest Chatter down to odds on and he won like an odds on horse should. I basically had the race down to 1-2-6-7 keying #6 US Citizen at 3.90-1. Not only did the 1 spoil the exotics by winning at 4-5 (took me 4 horses to get home a $3.80 winner, but my other 3 were 2nd, 3rd and 4th to last.

7th race- Then 2nd favorite Parlimentarian won at 3.90-1 and the heavy favorite Peacenik was 2nd at 1/2. Played the exacta and made a little bit, but turned out good in the double, pick 3 and pick 4 where I was able to get home the winner on a double. Nothing to brag about from a handicapping standpoint, but got the job done.

8th race-did a good job here. My top choice was winner Clever Royal my second choice was favorite Somethin unusual who came 3rd, my cover horses in the rolling pick 3 and pick 4 were the 2nd and 4th place finishers. It was just one of those situations I was stuck a lot at the time and needed Clever Royal so badly for doubles, pick 3's etc, I did not get overly involved in the race. Had the exact and tri small, a place bet on Clever royal, and he ended up keying a nice pick 3 and pick 4, but failed to bring down the easy $494.50 super. Great handicapping(it happens once every 50 races or so ) not so great betting.

9th race-had no opinion in a race loaded with 1st time starters. Went 6 deep in the pick 3 and pick 4 and was fortunate to get home a 12-1 shot 1st time starter.

Ended up being a nice day for me, but as far as the subject of the post, it is not as cut an dry as money. I hit a nice enough late pick 4, but it took me 4 horsesto get home 4/5 shot in the first leg(usually you want to single 4/5 winners if possible or at worst have them as 1 of 2). But could have been worse I could have gone 4 deep and gotten home someone else and torn up my ticket(like what happened in the 5th).

You just have to evaluate your capping race by race, day by day and take it from there.

When it comes to measuring performance it is all about record keeping. Track every bet seperately(win, place, show, exacta, trifecta....). win/loss and $ bet. As you accumulate data, you begin to see where you are. If you are losing over 15% on the bet, chances are it is a low probability event like a pick 4. 1 good score will put you in the black for months, don't worry about it. If you are are losing 15% + on Win or Place or exacta over a large number of racing days, that should concern you. You are probably betting too many undervalued plays. Bottom line is you just see where your roi is for each kind of bet, and of course what your overall profit and loss is and go from there. As your sample size gets really large you will have a better idea of what you are capable of. If you are getting rebates, you should track them seperately. Hopefully they are paying for a good portion of your losing bets or better yet adding to your profits.

[Kash$]

Steve Crist-

Bankroll start of the day
Bankroll end of the day

[bugboy]

I'm with you Kash$

[cj]

Originally Posted by Kash$

Steve Crist-

Bankroll start of the day
Bankroll end of the day

I'd change that to month, at least, maybe quarter. You measure by the day, you are asking for trouble.

[taxicab]

Keep track of every dollar you push through the windows for 24 months(or so).
If you're down less then 15% of that number.......you're really good.
The high takeout really does kill us in this game.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Keep track of every dollar you push through the windows for 24 months(or so).
If you're down less then 15% of that number.......you're really good.
The high takeout really does kill us in this game.

If you are betting every race, I agree I suppose.

But, if you are disciplined and play only those races that fit your personal criteria, -15% is NOT "really good", it's close to what the public as a whole does. If you are not positive ROI, or close enough for rebates to put you positive, then you are NOT "really good", IMO.

[LottaKash]

After 52 years at this, my game has evolved into a very simple way of wagering and kashing in on my rewards...

I am still a P&P handicapper, but my game has been reduced to about a "dozen" of tried and true angles, and a subset of another dozen or so lesser angles....My wagering rules are simple, "No Angle - No Bets"...With very little speculation in between...

I have had much, albeit, modest success, for the past 10-years or so...Modest because I have all but given up on getting rich, and just play to supplement my fixed income....But the reality is, it works for me...

Regardless of Bankroll size, I size my bets so that I have enough of a BR to insure that I always have "20-Bets"...I like 30 better, but 20 does well all the same...

Each month I take inventory, and sometimes twice a month, depending how well I have been faring lately....At the end of the Inventory, I usually am ahead...And, if having great success, I will take only half of the starting BR, and reinvest the Bankroll into a new wager-level, and bet for more....And, depending on my needs for the month or the moment, I will often withdraw the whole profit margin if the need arises....And then re-establish the new BR, and carry on with the 20-bet thing...

For an old guy this works out well for me...Of course, I only wager mostly WP and some straight cold 1-way exacts, and my wagers are quite modest as well....Most times, I just grind away never losing or winning too much, but when the Angles are clicking, and I am in the zone, that is when the profits start rolling in again...Doing it this way, I have been, after program expenses (I play at home), averaging between $1500 & $2000 a year....I am not greedy just old and needy...

The thing of it is, I haven't had to replenish the BR for a good long while now doing it this way...And I get to get those little things that the household budget does not allow for...

[raybo]

Originally Posted by LottaKash

After 52 years at this, my game has evolved into a very simple way of wagering and kashing in on my rewards...

I am still a P&P handicapper, but my game has been reduced to about a "dozen" of tried and true angles, and a subset of another dozen or so lesser angles....My wagering rules are simple, "No Angle - No Bets"...With very little speculation in between...

I have had much, albeit, modest success, for the past 10-years or so...Modest because I have all but given up on getting rich, and just play to supplement my fixed income....But the reality is, it works for me...

Regardless of Bankroll size, I size my bets so that I have enough of a BR to insure that I always have "20-Bets"...I like 30 better, but 20 does well all the same...

Each month I take inventory, and sometimes twice a month, depending how well I have been faring lately....At the end of the Inventory, I usually am ahead...And, if having great success, I will take only half of the starting BR, and reinvest the Bankroll into a new wager-level, and bet for more....And, depending on my needs for the month or the moment, I will often withdraw the whole profit margin if the need arises....And then re-establish the new BR, and carry on with the 20-bet thing...

For an old guy this works out well for me...Of course, I only wager mostly WP and some straight cold 1-way exacts, and my wagers are quite modest as well....Most times, I just grind away never losing or winning too much, but when the Angles are clicking, and I am in the zone, that is when the profits start rolling in again...Doing it this way, I have been, after program expenses (I play at home), averaging between $1500 & $2000 a year....I am not greedy just old and needy...

The thing of it is, I haven't had to replenish the BR for a good long while now doing it this way...And I get to get those little things that the household budget does not allow for...

My approach is much the same, except my win play is strictly cash flow for superfecta play. As my win bankroll increases, and reaches a level that allows a higher base superfecta wager, I will bet that higher base. When I hit a very large superfecta payout, compared to my average, I remove that excess profit from my superfecta bankroll, and continue. If my win bankroll decreases below the level at which my superfecta base bet amount becomes non-supported by the win bankroll, I will decrease my superfecta base bet amount.

Like you, my play is strictly supplemental to my fixed income. I have no preconceptions, nor fantasies, regarding getting rich via horse wagering. If I were going to become rich, it would have happened years ago, IMO. My total income is modest, and I live well below that income, because it is monetarily sound, and I am comfortable living the way I do. (just don't take away what I worked all my life for - please! I suppose, I could deal with soup lines, if everyone else is standing in those lines too - LOL)