How do you measure your handicapping?

[Greyfox]

Traynor - Consider the following example.

Handicapper A - goes to the track and wagers $1000 and earns back $1200 over the course of an afternoon.
He treats his wife two supper and drinks and spends $150 back, going home with $50 extra in his pocket.

Handicapper B - Goes to the track and bets $500. He gets back $550 and walks out of the track, not spending a nickel on food, drink, programs etc.
He leaves the track ahead with $50 extra in his pocket.

If we were measuring handicapping ability Handicapper A has done better on his wagering, with an ROI of 1.20, but with costs his Profit is the same.

Handicapper B , a cheapskate, walked out with the same Profit because he didn't spend a nickel. He's done so with weaker handicapping ability.

So when we ask "How do you measure your handicapping?" introducing extra costs and actual profit is superfluous to this discussion.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Traynor - Consider the following example.

Handicapper A - goes to the track and wagers $1000 and earns back $1200 over the course of an afternoon.
He treats his wife two supper and drinks and spends $150 back, going home with $50 extra in his pocket.

Handicapper B - Goes to the track and bets $500. He gets back $550 and walks out of the track, not spending a nickel on food, drink, programs etc.
He leaves the track ahead with $50 extra in his pocket.

If we were measuring handicapping ability Handicapper A has done better on his wagering, with an ROI of 1.20, but with costs his Profit is the same.

Handicapper B , a cheapskate, walked out with the same Profit because he didn't spend a nickel. He's done so with weaker handicapping ability.

So when we ask "How do you measure your handicapping?" introducing extra costs and actual profit is superfluous to this discussion.

That is comparing apples and oranges. ROI calculations involve direct costs associated with generating the return, not unrelated expenditures. However, if Handicapper A is forced to spend $x in order to gain the return, then the cost of dinner and drinks should accurately be considered a necessary expense.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by traynor

That is comparing apples and oranges. ROI calculations involve direct costs associated with generating the return, not unrelated expenditures. However, if Handicapper A is forced to spend $x in order to gain the return, then the cost of dinner and drinks should accurately be considered a necessary expense.

My point is the question was "How do you measure your handicapping?"

You should start a thread entitled "How do you measure your profit from horse racing?"

You are the one that added oranges to the apples, as lifestyle preferences would have to be included in answers to profits (eg. purchase of box seats, dining, drinks.)

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

True, but when at the track if you are asking handicappers their ROI they will strictly refer to monies on wagering.

If you have a company that is interested in Profit (loss) margins then they will use what you have presented above.

The specific question of this thread was "How do you measure your handicapping?"
It was most reasonable that horse players here would respond with ROI as defined by Deltalover, as we are not in a company boardroom meeting with Directors.

I think that your response simply complicates the issue for most horse players as you are focusing on net profits and total investment as a businessman would.

Again, I think you are making my point. As a group, handicappers are disinclined to measure their handicapping in any real world terms. Other bettors--who view racing as income generation--use what seems superficially to be the same metric (ROI), but definitely is NOT--to "measure their handicapping."

I can think of few sillier comments than someone declaring "profitability" in their handicapping based on the paper results of wagers not made.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

My point is the question was "How do you measure your handicapping?"

You should start a thread entitled "How do you measure your profit from horse racing?"

You are the one that added oranges to the apples, as lifestyle preferences would have to be included in answers to profits (eg. purchase of box seats, dining, drinks.)

Profit is directly related to return--not a "separate issue." Lifestyle preferences are an unrelated issue.

ROI = actual return/investment.

POI = (actual return - investment)/investment.

No creative definitions or alternative (subjective) definitions necessary.

[thaskalos]

I don't measure my handicapping; I measure the results of my entire play. And I find that my bi-monthly profit/loss record provides a pretty accurate portrayal of how well I am doing. ROI and hit rates may have their place...but, IMO, they don't really tell me enough about the important things that I need to know.

I wish I could provide a more thoughtful answer, but I couldn't come up with anything more creative. Or, maybe I misunderstood the questions asked in the original thread. Capper Al does that to me sometimes...

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

My point is the question was "How do you measure your handicapping?"

You should start a thread entitled "How do you measure your profit from horse racing?"

You are the one that added oranges to the apples, as lifestyle preferences would have to be included in answers to profits (eg. purchase of box seats, dining, drinks.)

I think there is an easier way to clarify, given the prevalence of "winners" on this forum. Change the question to: "How do you measure your handicapping--when reporting your additional income to the IRS?"

There are few areas in which self-deception and denial exert as much influence as in horse race handicapping. I don't really care, other than I think people would do way better if they were a bit more honest with themselves. If one doesn't realize (or refuses to accept) that something is broken, there is little motivation to fix it.

I think a LOT of bettors could win a lot more if they bypassed the ego-saving interpretations of "profitability" and concentrated on making money. The ego-saving ploy of declaring costs and directly related expenses as "entertainment" or "having fun" or whatever is a costly one. Not for me. For them.

[cj]

Money.

[DeltaLover]

What's going on boys? You don't bet?

[thaskalos]

When you run a deli, how do you measure your operation?

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

When you run a deli, how do you measure your operation?

Money.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

Money.

Okay then. Does anything more need to be said?

[Capper Al]

First of all, I asked, "How do you measure your own handicapping." So there is no right or wrong here. Second, I didn't even try to come up with all the possible ways. I listed 5 or 6 popular methods for a conversation starter. Third, Gus I'll get back to you in my next reply. And fourth and not last, I see value in all the methods that I listed. For example, the UDR method produced numbers like batting averages. The UDR's value was that we intuitively have an understanding for these numbers. UDR most likely is not the best method, but it is listed for discussion. We all need measures to perfect our game.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don't measure my handicapping; I measure the results of my entire play. And I find that my bi-monthly profit/loss record provides a pretty accurate portrayal of how well I am doing. ROI and hit rates may have their place...but, IMO, they don't really tell me enough about the important things that I need to know.

I wish I could provide a more thoughtful answer, but I couldn't come up with anything more creative. Or, maybe I misunderstood the questions asked in the original thread. Capper Al does that to me sometimes...

This question of how one measures may be more important to computer types. A lot of what we do is measure the impact of one factor against another in producing our final formula or selection. If what is important to you is not seen by numbers directly or in an angle then this discussion is not of importance to you. You're not going to ask yourself how well does your class or speed figures do or in what combination.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Okay then. Does anything more need to be said?

Thanks to both you and cj for succinctly expressing something I have been trying to express (and using WAY too many words).