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05-14-2015, 11:07 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
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Bet Against American Pharoah
My oddsline doesn't even have him 50% to win this race. Have you guys forgot Shackleford? How about Oxbow?Let's go back a bit. How about Red Bullett? I admit that I do have a bad case of "Bet against the Favorite". Had it for years. There is money to be made in this race. Afraid you'll miss out on a $7.40 win ticket and a $12 exacta?
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There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
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05-15-2015, 01:17 AM
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#2
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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There are several ways that Pharoah can get beat. The two most likely are there is a speed favoring track which allows the front runner to wire to wire and something physically happens to Pharoah during the race. Off the Derby, Pharoah looks to be the best horse by quite a bit.
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Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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05-15-2015, 07:23 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by maddog42
My oddsline doesn't even have him 50% to win this race. Have you guys forgot Shackleford? How about Oxbow?Let's go back a bit. How about Red Bullett? I admit that I do have a bad case of "Bet against the Favorite". Had it for years. There is money to be made in this race. Afraid you'll miss out on a $7.40 win ticket and a $12 exacta?
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I'm guessing your oddsline didn't have him at even money in the Derby either.
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05-15-2015, 09:07 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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haa .........my oddsline has him at 90% and my color coded numbers chart has him in the red/orange zone indicating a strong play situation
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05-15-2015, 11:14 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 121
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All of those you mentioned beat Derby winning closers. Types like Pharoah rarely lose the Preakness.
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05-15-2015, 12:09 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 278
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watch Danzig Moon at nice odds.
Mark
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05-15-2015, 12:24 PM
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#7
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Tale Of Verve for a piece of the pie.
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Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-15-2015, 12:24 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 6,371
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I think the top three Derby finishers repeat... but the order is shuffled.  /  /  . 
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Remember To Help Old Friends Thoroughbred Retirement Center.
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05-15-2015, 02:51 PM
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#9
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by maddog42
My oddsline doesn't even have him 50% to win this race. Have you guys forgot Shackleford? How about Oxbow?Let's go back a bit. How about Red Bullett? I admit that I do have a bad case of "Bet against the Favorite". Had it for years. There is money to be made in this race. Afraid you'll miss out on a $7.40 win ticket and a $12 exacta?
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If you have that insight based what you see, and your knowledge of the game, you are looking at a good opportunity here.
For about as much as I would root for someone else in a parimutuel game (and only because I will not be betting this race heavily - i genuinely will mildly root for you).
If you don't have any insight on this, then it's just a low% random luck gamble. Nothing wrong with that either .
I sure don't see him as a bet-against. He's the best horse we've seen in years, and he's fundamentally sound, and has a top trainer, and appeared sound in Kentucky and in his jog @ Baltimore. Looks like a legitimate favorite from my perspective.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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05-15-2015, 03:45 PM
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#10
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
If you have that insight based what you see, and your knowledge of the game, you are looking at a good opportunity here.
For about as much as I would root for someone else in a parimutuel game (and only because I will not be betting this race heavily - i genuinely will mildly root for you).
If you don't have any insight on this, then it's just a low% random luck gamble. Nothing wrong with that either .
I sure don't see him as a bet-against. He's the best horse we've seen in years, and he's fundamentally sound, and has a top trainer, and appeared sound in Kentucky and in his jog @ Baltimore. Looks like a legitimate favorite from my perspective.
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Yeah... He still "floats" over the dirt.....
American Pharoah jogs at Pimlico
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Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-15-2015, 03:53 PM
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#11
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GARY
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Florida
Posts: 1,339
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American Pharoah
It is now the time to shine for the Zayat family and their incredible
Colt who truly breathes different air as stated by many
Well connected horsemen.
Toss your numbers aside and enjoy the ride, which i I envision
Will run like Big Red in the Belmont.
If I'm wrong,I'll be very wrong;that said ,check the mighty
Trainers who elected not to run in this race..
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05-15-2015, 04:37 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Mukwonago, WI
Posts: 3,208
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NY BRED
If I'm wrong,I'll be very wrong;that said ,check the mighty
Trainers who elected not to run in this race..
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Why run your closer on a track that is essentially made to order for horses like AP and the others.
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05-15-2015, 04:45 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Canonsburg, Pa
Posts: 1,945
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I am sure that there are a couple trip scenarios that AP could lose; but since I am taking my shot at Belmont, I would love to see him win tomorrow. All the hype once again about the Triple Crown attempt will help out greatly at the toteboard odds.
My horse for the Derby was Mubtaahij and will be my pick once again in the Belmont. (BTW Mubtaahij shipped to Belmont yesterday so he will three weeks to get accustomed to it.
With Dortmund racing just off of AP, I have to watch closely how Dortmund breaks from the box as Martin Garcia has a habit of breaking to this left at the gate come hell or high water. He will either do that again like he did in the Derby cutting off Mubtaahij or like Bayern in the Classic taking out three or four horses at the break. If he breaks straight, we will know that those two mentioned races were intentional. If he breaks into his stablemate, I have to give Garcia credit for being consistent.
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05-15-2015, 05:06 PM
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#14
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Although I am not very enthusiastic about betting it
Here you can see my analysis for the Preakness..
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whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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05-15-2015, 05:10 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by depalma113
I'm guessing your oddsline didn't have him at even money in the Derby either.
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Nope. I had him about 7/2 in the Derby. And i thought he should be the Fav in the Derby. Dortmund is the horse that bounced in the Derby. I am keying him every which way with Danzig Moon and Firing Line and AP. The shorter Distance will help Dortmund. I will take a small exacta and put Danzig Moon over AP and Dortmund.
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There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
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