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Old 05-15-2015, 01:42 AM   #16
Some_One
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Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
This goes against everything I was taught about show betting. Getting a measly 2.20 to 2.50 payoff on a star horse like American Pharoah is never a good idea.

You're better off going with Danzig Moon or Tale of Verve to show and hoping American Pharoah or one of the big 3 dumps his jockey.
And you are wrong, typical fav avoidence mindset.

In my db, in 8 horse fields I got favs under 3/2 running ITM at 81% for a -9% ROI, horses between 8 and 14 (the range I expect Danzig Moon to go in) come ITM at 30% for a -23% ROI clip. Plus lower winning percentage worse for your bankroll as per Kelly criterion.

It's the fav-longshot bias, you see it everyday, people rather chase the bombs, this isn't the race to chase bombs, especially when less then half the field will be below natural odds.
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Old 05-15-2015, 02:22 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by depalma113
American Pharoah should be 1/5 against this field. He is the best value in this race.
before the derby i could never bet on AMERICAN PHAROAH. he came out of a pretty blank race. this time around he comes out of a real good race that he basically spotted the other horses 7 lengths by the trip he got for the race. if you want to believe the people that are involved with this horse, they say they haven't got to the bottom of him yet. add to all this that the trainer is probably the most experienced guy alive in being able to prepare a horse for the triple crown series, it will be pretty tough to beat this horse on Saturday. i make fair odds .25 to the dollar, or payoff of $2.50.
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Old 05-15-2015, 03:00 AM   #18
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Can someone please, please, get exchange wagering OK'd pronto!
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Old 05-15-2015, 03:26 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Some_One
AP to show I think will be the best value, last year CC payed 20 cents to the dollar as a .50 fav with the top 3 choices finishing ITM, I think one of FL or Dort will run out so the payoff should be better this year with just as good as a fav.
So last year if you put $50 on CC to show, that would have paid $10?

What do you think Dortmund would pay to show?
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Old 05-15-2015, 04:08 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by ISU-horse
So last year if you put $50 on CC to show, that would have paid $10?

What do you think Dortmund would pay to show?
Social Inclusion paid 3.40 last year as a 5-1 choice, so somewhere in that ballpark.
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Old 05-15-2015, 05:48 AM   #21
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Social Inclusion paid 3.40 last year as a 5-1 choice, so somewhere in that ballpark.
Because it appears I have way too much time on my hands, for the Preakness, I looked at the charts since 2000, and took the post time fav, the 3rd choice, and the lowest longshot (so odds above natural odds and at least 4th choice, ie in a 10 horse field, looking for 10-1+) and recorded what a show bet payoff would result. And yes those longshots like Bernardini pay good, you just don't hit many

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Old 05-15-2015, 01:09 PM   #22
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To me this is a pass race also.

I might put a $10 exacta AP to Danzig Moon if I need some action as he - besides AP - is the most likely to improve the most in my mind.

Have to watch closely how the track is playing; especially if there seems to be any bias, inside or outside.
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Old 05-15-2015, 02:00 PM   #23
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how can you pass. never has a TC race looked this easy

you'll likely never see a trip or super this monkey driven easy to pick in such a high level race.
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Old 05-15-2015, 02:57 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
how can you pass. never has a TC race looked this easy

you'll likely never see a trip or super this monkey driven easy to pick in such a high level race.
serious question - what is your superfecta?

it looks tough to me. I have 2 horses that I feel are VERY strong, but then I need much of the field...
you?
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Old 05-15-2015, 03:16 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
serious question - what is your superfecta?

it looks tough to me. I have 2 horses that I feel are VERY strong, but then I need much of the field...
you?
I have to agree with what you are saying here. The race might seem simple to handicap, but the problem is that this view is shared by almost anyone who will be betting on it..

I see three possible betting options for this race:

(1)Nail it down to a cold exacta or even tri

(2)Take a contrarian stance, picking one of the longshots for the top spots

(3)Do not bother and stay out
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Old 05-15-2015, 04:47 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
I have to agree with what you are saying here. The race might seem simple to handicap, but the problem is that this view is shared by almost anyone who will be betting on it..

I see three possible betting options for this race:

(1)Nail it down to a cold exacta or even tri

(2)Take a contrarian stance, picking one of the longshots for the top spots

(3)Do not bother and stay out
You and I have similar general views here.

Given the "favorite-centric" nature of the parimutuel system, identifying a 'strong' favorite is always enough to provide big value.

In basic terms - all that means is that when we pay out winning favorites - there are a bunch of winning tickets, So... paying out all those winning tickets and the track takeout spreads the 'jackpot' relatively thin.
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Old 05-15-2015, 05:21 PM   #27
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Red face specific views with value comments

  1. American Pharaoh is my very dominant win selection! (Value?) = very little if any.
  2. Firing Line is my somewhat dominant place selection! (Value?) = very little if any.
  3. Dortmund may not be on the superfecta ticket (Value?) = Moderate. Why not great value, you ask? Because after the Win and Place positions are decided we're only talking a 6 horse field for 3rd/4th with the public typically spreading in those positions. There's value here, but not great value.
  4. Danzig Moon > Divining Rod = (Value?) =Small value. Divining Rod is a low-impact wise-guy horse here, taking money in early doubles, but not a ton of value here.
  5. Mr. Z = Divining Rod = (Value?) = Small Value. See #4. Rod has a higher hit% than Z, but the odds discrepancy calls for balanced usage.
  6. Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Mr. Z > Dortmund, Bodhissatva, Tale of Verve = (Value?) = No value. - Already counted the vs.-Dortmund Value, I don't get that twice here, and those other two are already the Public's bottom contenders.
RECAP + POSSIBLE SUITED TIX:

I'm now looking at vertical exotics which exclude Dortmund, and that are weighted toward Danzig Moon.

Example:
$2 trifecta AP /FL/ DM
$1 trifecta AP/FL /DR,MR.Z



questions/comments?
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 05-15-2015 at 05:24 PM.
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Old 05-15-2015, 05:37 PM   #28
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the value is that the pools are going to be high, and even the fav numbers should come out more than they should.

AP
FL
DORT
DANZIG/DIVINE

do the same, maybe w/ dorts 2nd and FL 3rd.

big key is how much of a lock danzig and or divine is for 4th?..and if you want to get speculative,,,could dort be 4th or worse?

since there's only a few horses maybe a wheel for 4th is best utilized under these circumstances, as danzig and divine might look to compete and that will compromise chances for 4th.

sorry to disappoint if these are the fav's str8..but what can you do. except hammer the likely outcome.

i personally want to give FL a chance to win. so i may put him on top w/ AP second and the figures right behind...if dorts wins, than whoopie for him and i'll lose
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Old 05-15-2015, 05:38 PM   #29
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should say is not

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
You and I have similar general views here.

Given the "favorite-centric" nature of the parimutuel system, identifying a 'strong' favorite is not always enough to provide big value.

In basic terms - all that means is that when we pay out winning favorites - there are a bunch of winning tickets, So... paying out all those winning tickets and the track takeout spreads the 'jackpot' relatively thin.
typo
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Old 05-15-2015, 07:13 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
the value is that the pools are going to be high, and even the fav numbers should come out more than they should.

AP
FL
DORT
DANZIG/DIVINE

do the same, maybe w/ dorts 2nd and FL 3rd.

big key is how much of a lock danzig and or divine is for 4th?..and if you want to get speculative,,,could dort be 4th or worse?

since there's only a few horses maybe a wheel for 4th is best utilized under these circumstances, as danzig and divine might look to compete and that will compromise chances for 4th.

sorry to disappoint if these are the fav's str8..but what can you do. except hammer the likely outcome.

i personally want to give FL a chance to win. so i may put him on top w/ AP second and the figures right behind...if dorts wins, than whoopie for him and i'll lose
No argument here.

If you were whale or pro with no emotion, maybe you would completely pass such a race, but hey - this is the Preakness! right? Only live once.

If you are that confident, you can still hit a $50 chalky super and hammer it.
Nothing wrong there.

And if you like Firing Line to win, you will want to do at least a few small pick-3's or pick-4s' with FL 'singled'.
He's a bigger price in those races than he will be in say a super with AP 2ND.
For some reason when you've got a Heavy Fav + a 2nd choice, reversing that order of finish doesn't pay out as big as you would think... So When you do put Firing Line on top also good to look at the mult-race sequences - particularly if you have a horse or two in the races surrounding the 2nd Jewel of the Triple Crown
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