Making money with Pharoah in The Preakness: Hit The Super

[horses4courses]

It's going to be very hard to make money in the Preakness.
Only seven runners going to post.

http://www.drf.com/news/preview/mate...skip-preakness

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

It's going to be very hard to make money in the Preakness.
Only seven runners going to post.

http://www.drf.com/news/preview/mate...skip-preakness

The Belmont for Materiality is the correct choice. Agree this race looks like a total pass. I will give Divining Rod a chance to hit the board but he is a good step below any of the top 3.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by minethatbird08

Frosted never passed Dortmund. Not sure where this re rally theory started.

Skip to 12:43 on the video and watch. At the wire Dortmund is actually running stronger than Frosted and FL.

You can also watch what happens to Carpe Diem, another horse in the 1 path the entire race, he tires like a quarter horse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV8aA2A34Rw

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Skip to 12:43 on the video and watch. At the wire Dortmund is actually running stronger than Frosted and FL.

You can also watch what happens to Carpe Diem, another horse in the 1 path the entire race, he tires like a quarter horse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV8aA2A34Rw

At 12:43 Frosted is about 4 or 5 lengths behind Dortmund. Now at about 13:02 mark Dortmund passes him again but they are already well past the finish line. So I still don't see any "re rally for 3rd place."

[Robert Fischer]

public's pyramid

1st/2nd,3rd/2nd,3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th/2nd,3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th

Pharaoh/Firing,Dort/Firing,Dort,Danzig,Divining,Verve,Bhodisatva/Firing,Dort,Danzig,Divining,Verve,Bhodisatva


finding value
1. Use a longer shot 2nd
1st/4th/2nd,3rd/2nd,3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th

Pharaoh/Danzig/Firing,Dort/Firing,Dort,Divining,Verve,Bhodisatva

2. reverse the pyramid

example:
1st/2nd,3rd/2nd,3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th/6th
Pharaoh/Firing,Dort/Firing,Dort,Danzig,Verve,Bhodisatva/Divining

3. combine both
1st/6th/2nd,3rd/4th
Pharaoh/Danzig/Firing,Dort/Divining

so now we've got a cheap superfecta (what does this cost $2 for a $1 wager?), and we've got a horse 2nd that isn't impossible, that will be off many of the fan's tix, and we've singled a logical horse 4th where the public will have used 6 horses.

We can spend $60 bucks on this and if it hits (and it may pay around $70 or so) we'd have it 30 times.


Just an example.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Sunday Silence

I agree with Toscanova on this one. Dortmund had no excuse. I don't buy the dead rail. One more jump and Frosted gets him too, with Dort off the board. I don't like horses getting passed in the Derby coming back. It's not as if he had any trouble. I guess the colic is an angle if you like him, but there is no doubt he's going to get hooked by Firing Line and AP at the top of the lane. I think he fights but gives in again.

Dortmunds excuse WAS being on the lead. Dortmund, IMO, is a much, much better horse when he has a target in front of him. The way the Preakness is shaping up, Dortmund should sit just off of Firing Line on the outside. He will beat Firing Line with this tactic. Leading wire to to wire in the Derby is hard enough, especially when that is not the preferred running style.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

It's going to be very hard to make money in the Preakness.
Only seven runners going to post.

http://www.drf.com/news/preview/mate...skip-preakness

I guess it depends what you mean by making money. I assume you thought the same way on the SA Derby. There, you had an easy winner in Dortmund and only three other horses with any ability. The super came back 52 dollars. Not bad at all. For all the people on this board that play the super 3x4x5x6, or something like that, yes there is no money to be made. However, if someone has a strong opinion on how the top three will finish, there is a ton of money to be made if you got enough to bet. Not to mention if you can get the 4th horse behind the big three, then you can make thousands off the Preakness.

[davew]

gl nads

when I do bets like that, I usually get back between $45 and $60 when I cash. I have done better just betting the $60 show - we will see in 4 days.

[jtschmidt]

Is there no super hi-5 this year? I do not see it listed. If they did away with it I am guessing due to small field.

[thespaah]

With the three top horses and with AP going to be on almost every vertical ticket, there not much value there. I think P3 and P4 are the way to go.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by thespaah

With the three top horses and with AP going to be on almost every vertical ticket, there not much value there. I think P3 and P4 are the way to go.

yeah ur right and those races have large fields... thats were the money is at

[davew]

Originally Posted by davew

gl nads

when I do bets like that, I usually get back between $45 and $60 when I cash. I have done better just betting the $60 show - we will see in 4 days.

I stuck too much in the pick4 and missed 3rd leg, should have just put it all to show

did you get the super? paid well $1906.90 /$

[raybo]

Originally Posted by davew

I stuck too much in the pick4 and missed 3rd leg, should have just put it all to show

did you get the super? paid well $1906.90 /$

Yes, the super paid well, as it should with the 2nd and 3rd horses that were in it. Firing Line not being in the super caused lots of people to miss it also.