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05-11-2015, 11:18 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
I guess we'll see if your 'opinion' is worth anything on Saturday, even though you didn't state it as opinion, but as 'fact'.
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i don't even understand what this means. if you think dortmund is deserving on being put on top be my guest.
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05-11-2015, 11:47 PM
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#32
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
i don't even understand what this means. if you think dortmund is deserving on being put on top be my guest.
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Hmmm - I thought I was quite understandable. You stated, as fact, that Dortmund has no chance of rebounding from a very non-typical finish in the Derby. You mean, as fact, that nothing except a poor performance can happen with Dortmund. You mean, as fact, that his Derby race signals that he is declining in form. And, you mean, in fact, that he was just lucky to get 3rd in the Derby.
In my opinion, Dortmund ran a very "atypical" stretch run, and possibly could have been the victim of a dead or deep rail path. In my opinion, there is a good chance that he reverses things on the Preakness surface, and at the 1/16th mile shorter distance. In my opinion, both AP and Firing Line could very well have exerted excessive energy in that stretch run and the battle to the wire, and could both show it in the Preakness only 2 weeks later.
And, the most important thing, IMO, is that the odds on Dortmund will be much better than AP or Firing Line. How often will you get those kinds of odds on a horse as talented as Dortmund?
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05-12-2015, 12:02 AM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Hmmm - I thought I was quite understandable. You stated, as fact, that Dortmund has no chance of rebounding from a very non-typical finish in the Derby. You mean, as fact, that nothing except a poor performance can happen with Dortmund. You mean, as fact, that his Derby race signals that he is declining in form. And, you mean, in fact, that he was just lucky to get 3rd in the Derby.
In my opinion, Dortmund ran a very "atypical" stretch run, and possibly could have been the victim of a dead or deep rail path. In my opinion, there is a good chance that he reverses things on the Preakness surface, and at the 1/16th mile shorter distance. In my opinion, both AP and Firing Line could very well have exerted excessive energy in that stretch run and the battle to the wire, and could both show it in the Preakness only 2 weeks later.
And, the most important thing, IMO, is that the odds on Dortmund will be much better than AP or Firing Line. How often will you get those kinds of odds on a horse as talented as Dortmund?
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i don't believe there is good chance of dortmund reversing anything and winning this race
he was pretty soundly beaten by the top 2 and both materality and frosted didn't have the best trips..if they did, they would have caught dorts as well.
it's more likely he runs worse than better
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05-12-2015, 12:45 AM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,540
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
i don't believe there is good chance of dortmund reversing anything and winning this race
he was pretty soundly beaten by the top 2 and both materality and frosted didn't have the best trips..if they did, they would have caught dorts as well.
it's more likely he runs worse than better
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If the horse's last race told the entire story...then I would agree with your assessment. But the game is a lot more complicated than that...
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05-12-2015, 01:07 AM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
If the horse's last race told the entire story...then I would agree with your assessment. But the game is a lot more complicated than that...
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i'll give you that. but the horse had little excuse to run the way he did. he has to be knocked because of it.
set modest pace,
beaten easily by top 2
lucky to get third
considering all that, the preakness doesn't scream win/rebound for him...
if interested parties feel the shorter distance will help him, they should not dismiss that it will help AP and FL as well..
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05-12-2015, 01:19 AM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,540
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
i'll give you that. but the horse had little excuse to run the way he did. he has to be knocked because of it.
set modest pace,
beaten easily by top 2
lucky to get third
considering all that, the preakness doesn't scream win/rebound for him...
if interested parties feel the shorter distance will help him, they should not dismiss that it will help AP and FL as well..
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The shorter distance of the Preakness works to the advantage of all three of the main contenders, that's true...but there might be a reason to expect Dortmund to rebound with a better effort in the Preakness. Undefeated horses often bounce back with a better effort after suffering their lone defeat. A horse is allowed a misstep somewhere down the line...no?
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05-12-2015, 01:27 AM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
The shorter distance of the Preakness works to the advantage of all three of the main contenders, that's true...but there might be a reason to expect Dortmund to rebound with a better effort in the Preakness. Undefeated horses often bounce back with a better effort after suffering their lone defeat. A horse is allowed a misstep somewhere down the line...no?
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I agree with Toscanova on this one. Dortmund had no excuse. I don't buy the dead rail. One more jump and Frosted gets him too, with Dort off the board. I don't like horses getting passed in the Derby coming back. It's not as if he had any trouble. I guess the colic is an angle if you like him, but there is no doubt he's going to get hooked by Firing Line and AP at the top of the lane. I think he fights but gives in again.
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05-12-2015, 01:35 AM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,540
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunday Silence
I agree with Toscanova on this one. Dortmund had no excuse. I don't buy the dead rail. One more jump and Frosted gets him too, with Dort off the board. I don't like horses getting passed in the Derby coming back. It's not as if he had any trouble. I guess the colic is an angle if you like him, but there is no doubt he's going to get hooked by Firing Line and AP at the top of the lane. I think he fights but gives in again.
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You may not like to see horses getting passed in the Derby...but you won't see many winning the Derby wire-to-wire either. Being on the lead in the Derby isn't exactly an advantageous place to be, even when the pace is modest...unless the pace-setter is one of those "special" horses. I don't think Dortmund will win the Preakness...but I think he'll run a better race than he did in the Derby.
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05-12-2015, 01:38 AM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunday Silence
I agree with Toscanova on this one. Dortmund had no excuse. I don't buy the dead rail. One more jump and Frosted gets him too, with Dort off the board. I don't like horses getting passed in the Derby coming back. It's not as if he had any trouble. I guess the colic is an angle if you like him, but there is no doubt he's going to get hooked by Firing Line and AP at the top of the lane. I think he fights but gives in again.
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Like he did the first two times Firing Line came for him? LOL
You guys are putting too much weight in the Derby. It's not the only race in the galaxy. And since when does the horse who sets the pace get knocked so hard? He did all the heavy lifting and still hit the board, I like that.
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05-12-2015, 01:42 AM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,540
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OCF
That's an interesting rule of thumb - do you have similar rules for the other verticals?
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Yes.
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05-12-2015, 01:43 AM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
i'll give you that. but the horse had little excuse to run the way he did. he has to be knocked because of it.
set modest pace,
beaten easily by top 2
lucky to get third
considering all that, the preakness doesn't scream win/rebound for him...
if interested parties feel the shorter distance will help him, they should not dismiss that it will help AP and FL as well..
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Where are you getting this "lucky to get third" BS?????
Frosted passed him and he re rallied to get back in front of Frosted.
He wasn't "lucky" to set the pace and still beat 15 horses on Derby Day.
I can't remember the last time I heard so many people naive to the fact that horse races are not carbon copies of each other. Different tracks, different pace scenarios mean different outcomes.
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05-12-2015, 01:55 AM
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#42
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex Phinney
Where are you getting this "lucky to get third" BS?????
Frosted passed him and he re rallied to get back in front of Frosted.
He wasn't "lucky" to set the pace and still beat 15 horses on Derby Day.
I can't remember the last time I heard so many people naive to the fact that horse races are not carbon copies of each other. Different tracks, different pace scenarios mean different outcomes.
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Yup, and after looking at the horses in the Preakness field so far, the Brisnet running styles and Quirin points assignments put the Pace Pressure Gauge at 44 x 0. That's a huge pressure number! No E horses and only one S horse, the rest are all E/P horses. Anything, literally anything, can happen in this race!!
We could have a blistering pace 45/1:09, or we could have everyone laying together and running 48/1:13, or we could have anything in between.
Last edited by raybo; 05-12-2015 at 01:59 AM.
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05-12-2015, 01:58 AM
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#43
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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These are good horses.
Dortmund controlled a moderate pace, but Stevens went for the win there approaching the turn.
American Pharaoh and Espinoza had to go then also, and match strides with a horse(Firing Line) he felt he could go with and out-grind.
That isn't easy, deep rail or not, to have 2 big contenders take your lead like that approaching the turn. If Dortmund has any weakness, it's maybe that his cruising speed on the backstretch can be on the slow side for a Graded pace-setter.
I don't know what Dortmund can do differently, but he ran a good race. Firing Line deserves credit for recency, but there's no guarantee about that matchup in Baltimore. That was a hard drive for Firing Line. His footwork wasn't as solid as in other races, but it was a big performance. He has room to improve if he bounces back, or he could have left his race in Kentucky....
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05-12-2015, 02:08 AM
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#44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
These are good horses.
Dortmund controlled a moderate pace, but Stevens went for the win there approaching the turn.
American Pharaoh and Espinoza had to go then also, and match strides with a horse(Firing Line) he felt he could go with and out-grind.
That isn't easy, deep rail or not, to have 2 big contenders take your lead like that approaching the turn. If Dortmund has any weakness, it's maybe that his cruising speed on the backstretch can be on the slow side for a Graded pace-setter.
I don't know what Dortmund can do differently, but he ran a good race. Firing Line deserves credit for recency, but there's no guarantee about that matchup in Baltimore. That was a hard drive for Firing Line. His footwork wasn't as solid as in other races, but it was a big performance. He has room to improve if he bounces back, or he could have left his race in Kentucky....
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Yeah, lots of "ifs" and "maybes" in this one. All 3 could fight it out again, or they could all lay back and let the other E/Ps fight it out early, or one of the 3 might have actually gotten some further conditioning from the Derby and take off out of the gate or come on like a locomotive in the stretch, etc.. I wouldn't even attempt to project the early running in this race!
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05-12-2015, 11:59 AM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 332
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex Phinney
Where are you getting this "lucky to get third" BS?????
Frosted passed him and he re rallied to get back in front of Frosted.
He wasn't "lucky" to set the pace and still beat 15 horses on Derby Day.
I can't remember the last time I heard so many people naive to the fact that horse races are not carbon copies of each other. Different tracks, different pace scenarios mean different outcomes.
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Frosted never passed Dortmund. Not sure where this re rally theory started.
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