Making money with Pharoah in The Preakness: Hit The Super

[five-eighths]

Is the .10 Super an option in the Preakness? Can't recall from last year.

Also, noticed there was no mention of Carpe Diem. I know he had a lousy post in the Derby, would think he could have a decent shot to finish in the money.

[Robert Fischer]

Chrome's Preakness isn't a perfect example, but a good one to look at:


Chrome (1/2 Heavy Fav)
Ride On Curlin (3rd Choice, in a group of three like-priced 10.30-1)
Social Inclusion (2nd Choice , a clear 2nd choice 5.3-1)
General A Rod (7th Choice, in a group of longer shots 20.1-1)

$1payout = $173.80

$60 invested = pays $173.80
(1/234/234567/234567)=$60

lets say nads thought Social Inclusion was good, so he keyed him in the 3 spots:

1/ 2/34567/34567 =$20
1/ 34/2/234567 =$8
1/ 34/34567/2 =$8
total = $36
or $2 Super = $72 ($12 extra cost) , and now returns $347.60

So he had little additional opinion (he just 'keyed' the clear 2nd public choice in all 3 underneath spots), but he almost doubled his value, and did double his pay.

There is a lot more he could do, and there are different angles, but that is a good 'concrete' example.

[letswastemoney]

Maybe Tale of Verve can clunk his way into 4th.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Chrome's Preakness isn't a perfect example, but a good one to look at:


Chrome (1/2 Heavy Fav)
Ride On Curlin (3rd Choice, in a group of three like-priced 10.30-1)
Social Inclusion (2nd Choice , a clear 2nd choice 5.3-1)
General A Rod (7th Choice, in a group of longer shots 20.1-1)

$1payout = $173.80

$60 invested = pays $173.80
(1/234/234567/234567)=$60

lets say nads thought Social Inclusion was good, so he keyed him in the 3 spots:

1/ 2/34567/34567 =$20
1/ 34/2/234567 =$8
1/ 34/34567/2 =$8
total = $36
or $2 Super = $72 ($12 extra cost) , and now returns $347.60

So he had little additional opinion (he just 'keyed' the clear 2nd public choice in all 3 underneath spots), but he almost doubled his value, and did double his pay.

There is a lot more he could do, and there are different angles, but that is a good 'concrete' example.

Good advice, except he thinks he can get $400 for $1, with AP winning and Dortmund or Firing Line finishing 2nd, and one of those also getting 3rd. I would bet that that bet won't even pay $300 for $1 if it comes in that way, and $300 is my minimum expected payout (and I don't bet $60 to get $300, usually between $12 and $36 with a minimum expected payout of $300), or I pass the super.

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by nads1420

So I wanted to start a thread yalking about hitting the super. The super usually seems to pay in the Preakness. Last year on the IBN Preakness preview there was a good snap shot of all the exotics payouts in the Preakness of recently. http://www.ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1600

So I do think Pahroah wins. So Im all about constructing a good super ticket. Here is what Im thinking as of now.


American Pharoah W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge

Thats a $60 ticket per every $1.... And if Pharoah does win the odds of that ticket not hitting id say are better then 50%...



thoughts?


I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

Most of the good Preakness supers are due to a top Derby horse not landing in the super. Recent examples are Pioneer of the Nile, Super Saver, Mucho Macho Man. I think your type of ticket is what creates those big payouts. If you can't toss one of the Derby top 3 or find a good price horse to come in 2nd I don't think the super is worth it.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by raybo

Good advice, except he thinks he can get $400 for $1, with AP winning and Dortmund or Firing Line finishing 2nd, and one of those also getting 3rd. I would bet that that bet won't even pay $300 for $1 if it comes in that way, and $300 is my minimum expected payout (and I don't bet $60 to get $300, usually between $12 and $36 with a minimum expected payout of $300), or I pass the super.

The $1 Florida Derby super only paid something like $22 with straight chalk. I don't think the Preakness would pay so little but something to be cautious of. If it's AP/FL/DORT/whatever it conceivably might not pay more than $60. I will probably make that bet a few times but knowing my luck something goofy will happen.

[charm city whizz]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

You went "1/ 234/234567/234567" with the favorite on top and almost every horse in order of public odds.

You have a solid chance at hitting should the result be logical, however, you don't have any value built into your ticket.

It's a good ticket for trying to 'have' the super, but it's a long-term losing proposition.

If AP wins and the other choices comes 2nd would you get back more then the 180 you get back with the 100 win?

That saying AP is 4/5 which I can't see anything but 4/5, nothing higher nothing lower

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by charm city whizz

If AP wins and the other choices comes 2nd would you get back more then the 180 you get back with the 100 win?

That saying AP is 4/5 which I can't see anything but 4/5, nothing higher nothing lower

good point

Super could be real low if Firing Line / Dortmund fill out the ticket.

[boys at tosconova]

i just can't see FL worse than 3rd here.

he should be your key under AP for 2nd/3rd in the super

no need to diminish your returns w/ a 60 bet

[Rex Phinney]

I think this is a great race to throw a few bucks on exactas featuring Dortmund and Firing Line on top.

Throw those two on the top and pick 4 or 5 you really like for second (including AP) and let it rip. I'm just a little too unsure of AP to throw together a super ticket with him the only horse on top.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There is only one guaranteed thing about the superfecta: You will never make a profit betting it if your opinion in the win and place slots does not deviate from the opinion of the general public's.

That's an interesting rule of thumb - do you have similar rules for the other verticals?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by OCF

That's an interesting rule of thumb - do you have similar rules for the other verticals?

An obvious rule is, if the favorite is not on your ticket at all, bet it no matter what!

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

I think this is a great race to throw a few bucks on exactas featuring Dortmund and Firing Line on top.

Throw those two on the top and pick 4 or 5 you really like for second (including AP) and let it rip. I'm just a little too unsure of AP to throw together a super ticket with him the only horse on top.

dortmund doesn't deserve to be put on top of anything. he was lucky to get 3rd in the derby and you can't rule out an off the board finish here.

FL seems like he's the only one that might do it..and i still have my doubts that he can do it. but it does seem like he can take another step forward

[raybo]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

dortmund doesn't deserve to be put on top of anything. he was lucky to get 3rd in the derby and you can't rule out an off the board finish here.

FL seems like he's the only one that might do it..and i still have my doubts that he can do it. but it does seem like he can take another step forward

I guess we'll see if your 'opinion' is worth anything on Saturday, even though you didn't state it as opinion, but as 'fact'.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

dortmund doesn't deserve to be put on top of anything. he was lucky to get 3rd in the derby and you can't rule out an off the board finish here.

FL seems like he's the only one that might do it..and i still have my doubts that he can do it. but it does seem like he can take another step forward

LOL ok man whatever you say.

This one loves the front end, heading to a track that always likes speed.

AP looked nothing like Chrome in winning the derby. At some point people have to be realistic that AP has a pretty good chance of coming up short after all he had todo to win at Churchill. That was no walk in the park.

Dortmund and Firing line are both good enough to beat AP. they remind me of Shackleford and Oxbow. Just need the right trip on the right day.