Pre-Market ES Up 10 Points in One Minute

[barn32]

The S&P e-mini was up 4.25 points at 5:30 a.m. this morning. I had an order in to purchase one contract four ticks below the current price. I came within 2 ticks of getting filled and the next time I looked at the quote screen the e-mini was + 15 points. This all happened in less than a minute. It went back and forth there for a short time then shot up to +20 points.

Things like this are usually news related so I looked around for some reason this might be happening. I'm more accustomed to this happening on the downside than the upside.

A week or two ago the Dow was down a couple hundred points, and I couldn't find any reason for it. Then I stumbled on an article that said the Bloomberg systems were down around the world. I figured that was an overreaction and faded it profitably. But this time I'm not so sure.

I didn't have to look very hard to see that the jobs are up two hundred thousand plus, unemployment is down and wages are up.

I never really paid much attention to the news. I guess I should start.

[badcompany]

Jobs report, on the first Friday of the month, except when the 1st is on a Friday, is usually the biggest market mover of all the economic indicators.

The problem is that up you never know what the market will do as a result. In this case, the market shot up, but it just as easily could've gone down with the rationalization being that a good jobs report might speed up a rate rise from the Fed.

I've found the market reacts according to the technical position. In this case, the market had sold off pretty hard early in the week. So, a good jobs report was an opportunity to squeeze the shorts.

[PaceAdvantage]

Trading news events is probably the toughest thing in the world for a retail trader...you're way up against it versus the big boys...

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, if you look at a daily chart (of SPY for instance), there have been many, many days were the market has approached an all-time top only to sell off and leave a big fat tail...this is not a positive sign in my opinion...the rare time where the market closed near the high on these types of days was represented by relatively low volume. April 23 and May 4 are two recent examples.

And now we have a big fat gap-up today...which will be filled in the short run no doubt.

I think the big boys have been getting out near the top since the end of February...I think we're going to get a false breakout to the upside one of these days, and then the real selling will begin as everyone else starts heading to the exists once they realize the party is over for a while...

[badcompany]

Cramer was saying that it was too late to get in the market after today's big move. Ironically, in early April, he was telling people to wait for a better entry point which has never arrived.

He also mentioned ACT, which was one of my top picks for the year and is reporting earnings before the market opens on Monday. Of course, if Cramer really wanted to do his viewers a solid, he could've mentioned the stock on Thurs when people could've bought the stock for a possible earnings bump. If the stock does pop, I'm sure he will be taking bows.

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

BTW, if you look at a daily chart (of SPY for instance), there have been many, many days were the market has approached an all-time top only to sell off and leave a big fat tail...this is not a positive sign in my opinion...the rare time where the market closed near the high on these types of days was represented by relatively low volume. April 23 and May 4 are two recent examples.

And now we have a big fat gap-up today...which will be filled in the short run no doubt.

I think the big boys have been getting out near the top since the end of February...I think we're going to get a false breakout to the upside one of these days, and then the real selling will begin as everyone else starts heading to the exists once they realize the party is over for a while...

Looks like you're gonna be right. The FTSE has given back the election pop, and the Dow is on the verge of giving back the employment report pop.

ACT had a 3% pop yesterday but that just brought it back to the middle of its recent trading range.

That said, I'm still not seeing signs of a big decline. The present state of the market is range bound with long term still bullish.

[lamboguy]

gaps always get filled

[barn32]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

gaps almost always get filled

Fixed your post.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

gaps always get filled

Why?

[barn32]

Originally Posted by lamboguy
gaps always get filled

Why?

They don't. Unless of course they do. It's selective reasoning, which is kind of like technical analysis. It works...of course...unless...it doesn't work.