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05-06-2015, 01:45 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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value play from another point of view
Let's say that you are looking for natural or random odds horse and don't have a value play in your top three. And let's say that your A horse is going off at even money, your B horse is going at 2/1, and your C horse is going off at 9/2. Do you see the C horse as the action bet to show? I think I'm going that way because 3 for a third divided into 9/2 is 1.5 higher than my A or B selections.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-06-2015, 04:03 PM
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#2
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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I know this is difficult to do but, why not pass the race. Save your money for another time unless you have different betting and separate BR's.
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05-06-2015, 05:17 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
I know this is difficult to do but, why not pass the race. Save your money for another time unless you have different betting and separate BR's.
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Can't pass a race. This is the best that I can do.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-06-2015, 05:31 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,546
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Can't pass a race. This is the best that I can do.
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You mean to tell me that you were profitable at the track for five straight years, without being able to ever pass a race?
__________________
Live to play another day.
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05-06-2015, 07:03 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,541
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Let's say that you are looking for natural or random odds horse and don't have a value play in your top three. And let's say that your A horse is going off at even money, your B horse is going at 2/1, and your C horse is going off at 9/2. Do you see the C horse as the action bet to show? I think I'm going that way because 3 for a third divided into 9/2 is 1.5 higher than my A or B selections.
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Let me ask you this, your third choice wins a race how often in the average 8 horse field, 10-12% Pick numbers out of a hat and how often does it win? Same thing. Probably not fertile ground for chasing overlays and show betting makes things worse not better.
Last edited by MJC922; 05-06-2015 at 07:05 PM.
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05-06-2015, 07:10 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Let's say that you are looking for natural or random odds horse and don't have a value play in your top three. And let's say that your A horse is going off at even money, your B horse is going at 2/1, and your C horse is going off at 9/2. Do you see the C horse as the action bet to show? I think I'm going that way because 3 for a third divided into 9/2 is 1.5 higher than my A or B selections.
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Betting the fav to show is the best value
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05-06-2015, 07:18 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,568
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
You mean to tell me that you were profitable at the track for five straight years, without being able to ever pass a race?
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I was thinking the same thing.......hmmm.......that would be nice
__________________
Want to know what's wrong with this country?
Here it is, in a nutshell: Millions of people are
pinning their hopes on a man who has every
chance of returning to the WH, assuming that
he can manage to stay out of prison. Think about it.
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05-06-2015, 07:23 PM
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#8
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Let's say that you are looking for natural or random odds horse and don't have a value play in your top three. And let's say that your A horse is going off at even money, your B horse is going at 2/1, and your C horse is going off at 9/2. Do you see the C horse as the action bet to show? I think I'm going that way because 3 for a third divided into 9/2 is 1.5 higher than my A or B selections.
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Typical example of a PASS
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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05-07-2015, 05:54 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
You mean to tell me that you were profitable at the track for five straight years, without being able to ever pass a race?
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Passed very few and would, at least, make an action bet for $2.00.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-07-2015, 08:00 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 239
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Action bets get me in trouble--take a break and get a coffee. Patience is a virtue.
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05-07-2015, 10:20 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,629
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Passed very few and would, at least, make an action bet for $2.00.
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how about $5,3,2 for $10 win on fav, 2/1, 9/2 if you must bet action
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05-07-2015, 10:45 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by davew
how about $5,3,2 for $10 win on fav, 2/1, 9/2 if you must bet action
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The idea here is that your third choice is possibly paying better than your first two choices, plus you have two more spots where your third choice could finish.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
Last edited by Capper Al; 05-07-2015 at 10:46 AM.
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05-07-2015, 10:53 AM
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#13
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
The idea here is that your third choice is possibly paying better than your first two choices, plus you have two more spots where your third choice could finish.
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Al, is this really the point of the post you started here? Or are you looking for something else that's a better option besides passing the race?
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05-07-2015, 11:18 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,656
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Al, I'm gonna put it to ya straight. I wouldn't get outta the bed to bet show on a 9-2
If this is your idea of action. You gotta problem... 
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05-07-2015, 12:51 PM
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#15
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Let's say that you are looking for natural or random odds horse and don't have a value play in your top three. And let's say that your A horse is going off at even money, your B horse is going at 2/1, and your C horse is going off at 9/2. Do you see the C horse as the action bet to show? I think I'm going that way because 3 for a third divided into 9/2 is 1.5 higher than my A or B selections.
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It is not a bet I would make. The money moves around too much in the show pools. Value in the show pool very often disappears after the gates open. I think it is likely that there are computer programs at work at most major tracks that are doing a balancing acts.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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