Bounce Theory: The Most Fallacious Modern Fandicapping Idea

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Anyway, there is a whole other aspect to the "bounce" theory that predates Ragozin but does not apply in the case of AP. That is the case where a horse ran a peak race AFTER a very long layoff, and now returns on relatively short rest. The conventional wisdom is that he's now a "play against" because:

1. He will be "overbet" due to the line he shows in the "peak" race and -
2. He has not fully recovered from the wear and tear of the "peak" effort.

OK.. This adds another parameter to the theory, which we can easily test and verify how applicable it is...

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Anyway, there is a whole other aspect to the "bounce" theory that predates Ragozin but does not apply in the case of AP. That is the case where a horse ran a peak race AFTER a very long layoff, and now returns on relatively short rest. The conventional wisdom is that he's now a "play against" because:

1. He will be "overbet" due to the line he shows in the "peak" race and -
2. He has not fully recovered from the wear and tear of the "peak" effort.

Hmmm.. Out of curiosity, I added the factor you are suggesting: second of a long layoff, on top of candidate to bounce (LL is > 180 days while current days off are between 20 and 40.

Guess what?? In this case the (much small of course) sample is presenting a 1.21 ROI a 3.4 IV and 42% win%... Of course in the database I am using there were only 50 matching horses, while in the other categories there were a few hundred of them

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

OK, so we are saying the same think Thask... From what you are saying here, I cannot see how you are a follower of the bounce theory...

Thask is saying AP didn't run a peak race in the Derby, if anything (my thoughts) he regressed.

You define a Derby win alone as a peak race, I assume, from your comments?

Also, thanks for those stats - very interesting.

[PhantomOnTour]

I'm beginning to think that you database guys are more programmers than handicappers.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

OK, so we are saying the same think Thask... From what you are saying here, I cannot see how you are a follower of the bounce theory...

How are we saying the same thing, DL? You deny the existence of the "bounce theory" as a handicapping factor...and I have relied on my understanding of this "bounce theory" for some of my biggest scores. Do you see any common ground in our thought processes here?

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

You define a Derby win alone as a peak race, I assume, from your comments?

You are correct Mike.. By default, I consider any "major destination" race (like the Derby or the BC) to be the peak, at ,least for the winner..

[proximity]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I admit that I was considering Dortmund to be a more possible KD winner than AP.

Also, even if I consider Andy Beyer to be the Patriarch of the American handicappers and his figures, the most influential handicapping concept ever, I no longer pay any attention to them (and pretty much to any other commercial figure)...

his top two figure horses were materiality (6th) and upstart (last).

dortmund (106-104-104) looked better than american pharoah (105-100-101-101).

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

You are correct Mike.. By default, I consider any "major destination" race (like the Derby or the BC) to be the peak, at ,least for the winner..

Ok, I didn't understand your definition. I would only consider AP a bounce candidate if he ran a huge Beyer in the Derby, well above his past trend (he didn't). Even then, I'd take into account his trainer and the success Baffert's had at keeping horses at peak form throughout the Triple Crown.

[RXB]

American Pharoah finished farther ahead of Far Right and Mr Z in the Ky Derby than at Oaklawn so I highly doubt that he bounced on Saturday. The quality of competition stiffened immensely; did people really think that he'd win the Ky Derby in a cakewalk?

[RXB]

Originally Posted by proximity

dortmund (106-104-104) looked better than american pharoah (105-100-101-101).

Those two 101's were delivered as a 2YO in Aug & Sept.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I'm beginning to think that you database guys are more programmers than handicappers.

You use Quirin type figs, right?
Do you use the new pace top with an increase in final time as a bounce category? I find a lot of horses that just fail after that event.

[tophatmert]

the bounce theory :The most misunderstood modern handicapping idea

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by RXB

American Pharoah finished farther ahead of Far Right and Mr Z in the Ky Derby than at Oaklawn so I highly doubt that he bounced on Saturday. The quality of competition stiffened immensely; did people really think that he'd win the Ky Derby in a cakewalk?

This isn't the question that is being asked in this thread. The topic here is whether or not American Pharoah's performance in the Derby is the sort that usually leads to a "bounce" in the horse's subsequent start. DeltaLover does not subscribe to the "bounce theory" himself...but presumes to know how the "bounce theorists" make their "bounce" determinations. He has classified AP's performance in the Derby as an upcoming "bounce" indication...and he will come back here after AP wins the Preakness, to again tell us about the inadequacy of the bounce theory as a handicapping idea.

IMO, the bounce theory is a valid handicapping idea...assuming it is properly defined. Everything depends on the definition. And, in my opinion, AP's last race does not qualify as a bounce indication...regardless of how many times the horse was whipped in the race.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Tom

You use Quirin type figs, right?
Do you use the new pace top with an increase in final time as a bounce category? I find a lot of horses that just fail after that event.

Best bounce definition that I've ever seen or heard. I thought I was the only one who shared this opinion, until I saw Cary Fotias mention it in his book Blinkers Off . Now I know that there were at least 3 of us who had noticed this.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

This isn't the question that is being asked in this thread. The topic here is whether or not American Pharoah's performance in the Derby is the sort that usually leads to a "bounce" in the horse's subsequent start.

I should've used the Quote button to make my response more specific, as it had been suggested that his Ky Derby win was a regression from his Ark Derby win.