Storm Cat

[OCF]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Last 3 years:

2014:
5) Samarat
7) Ride on Curlin
9) Chitu
12) Intense Holiday
16) Harry's Holiday
18) Wildcat Red
19) Vicar's Trouble

2013:
10) Giant Finish
14 Verrazano
17) Frac Daddy
18) Goldencents
19) Vyjack
20) Falling Sky

2012:
2) Bodemeister
5) Creative Cause
9) Hansen
10) Daddy Nose Best
15) Sabercat
17) Trinneberg
20) Daddy Long Legs

The last 4 years the SC line has accounted for the last place finisher in the Derby{2011-Comma To The Top}.

This list appears to omit Commanding Curve, IMHO he makes a big difference in the takeaway.

[sbcaris]

This discussion parallels another pedigree pattern that existed for years: From the time of Raise A Native 1965 until 2006 there were ZERO Derby winners that carried the Raise A Native broodmare sire line. Whereas up to 2006 there were 13 Derby winners that carried the RAN sire line.

It was something like 45-50 horses that ran in the Derby with the RAN broodmare sire line up to 2005 and NONE of them won the roses until Barbaro in 2006 who carried Carson City as his brood mare sire and therefore the RAN broodmare sire line. This is very similar to the Storm Cat 0-44 stat.

Since 2006 we have two more RAN on the broodmare sire line Derby winners: Mine That Bird and California Chrome.

To say that the presence of one horse anywhere in a pedigree is a clear cut detriment for winning the Derby is a misunderstanding of the statistic.

Once again, every horse is an individual. Not all Storm Cats are created equal and if 6 raced second in the Derby its just a matter of time when one will win the roses. It could be this year.

Do I toss Dortmund and American Pharaoh and Carpe Diem because they have Storm Cat in their third generation where the influence is only 12.5% of the genes? If I do not use them in my exacta box it will not be because of the presence of Storm Cat. There are many other reasons to ponder before final decisions will be made.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by OCF

This list appears to omit Commanding Curve, IMHO he makes a big difference in the takeaway.

You are correct.
I missed Commanding Curve.
How I missed a horse out of one of the best broodmare names ever is beyond me.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Does anyone have a list of horses that had Storm Cat in their pedigrees over the last 10 years or so and where they finished in the KY Derby?

The list I came up with is attached below.

I don't know a lot about statistics, but I'm pretty sure 28 under-performing to 25 out-performing their win odds would not be considered statistically significant. Maybe somebody with more statistical knowledge could weigh in.

I'm leaning towards this putting the idea of a Storm Cat curse to rest, but I'd still be interested in differing opinions.

The only way that I knew to put together this list was highly manual, so if somebody wants to offer a similar list for comparison purposes (to check for errors) that would be greatly welcomed.

[sbcaris]

OCF: Thanks for the data. The following is an interesting take on the data for the 10 year period 2005-2014:

55 runners carried Storm Cat in their pedigrees of 196 total starters in the above time frame. This translates into 28.6% of the starters with the Storm Cat factor. Since in the last 10 years 4 of the above 55 ran second in the Derby:

Commanding Curve in 2014
Bodemeister in --------2012
Ice Box-----------------2010
Bluegrass Cat----------2006

The impact value for running second in the Derby over the last 10 years is 1.40. (40% place finishers divided by 28.6% of the starters. This means that horses with Storm Cat anywhere in their pedigree are running second 40% more often than statistical expectation.

Of course, the impact value to win the roses for Storm Cat horses is ZERO.

However, who wagers on all the Storm Cat horses?. There were 45 Storm Cat horses on OCF's list that did not qualify on my final fraction indicator. Only 10 qualified on a fast final time. Generally, i do not wager on any of these that did not qualify on my final fraction time. Its like my Buckpasser angle. Last year there were 10 Derby horses who carried Buck in the X. I wagered only on the 4 that fit my final fraction indicator and one of the 4 won (Cali Chrome) and one of the four qualifiers was second (Wicked Strong). The purpose of handicapping is to fine tune the data that is significant. Many horses with Buckpasser in the X cannot run a lick. Similarly, many Storm Cat horses cannot run a lick. Those that show us they can by either running fast final times or high Beyer figs or something else that is commendable are the ones to take a risk on.

From the standpoint of those that achieved a final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less we get an entirely different picture. There were only 5 years in the last 10 where at least one Storm Cat horse achieved a final fraction of 37 4/5 or less:

2014 Ride On Curlin
2013 Verrazzano and vyjack
2012 Bodemeister (2nd) and El Padrino
2011 Comma To the Top
2010 Ice Box (2nd) and Line of David

So thats 8 horses qualifying on both factors which is approx 8% of the starters and since there were 2 place finishers in that 5 year period the impact value to place is a humongous 5.00. Horse with storm cat plus final fraction time are running second in the Derby 5 times more often than statistical expectation.

Now I realize the above is such a small sample of data that it is to be taken with a grain of salt.

Some handicappers will still say they will omit Dortmund, American Pharaoh and Carpe Diem because they carry Storm Cat in their pedigrees. I take that idea also with a grain of salt.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

OCF: Thanks for the data.

My pleasure sbcaris. You've been generous with a lot of data that had to have taken you a lot of time to compile.

[Dad4Gloria]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Last 3 years:

2014:
5) Samarat
7) Ride on Curlin
9) Chitu
12) Intense Holiday
16) Harry's Holiday
18) Wildcat Red
19) Vicar's Trouble

2013:
10) Giant Finish
14 Verrazano
17) Frac Daddy
18) Goldencents
19) Vyjack
20) Falling Sky

2012:
2) Bodemeister
5) Creative Cause
9) Hansen
10) Daddy Nose Best
15) Sabercat
17) Trinneberg
20) Daddy Long Legs

The last 4 years the SC line has accounted for the last place finisher in the Derby{2011-Comma To The Top}.

Nice call on Pharoah you human anchor.