Storm Cat

[sbcaris]

Does anyone have a list of horses that had Storm Cat in their pedigrees over the last 10 years or so and where they finished in the KY Derby?

[sammy the sage]

0-44....if you want the list of names...I ain't going that far...

ps...that's for winning...not placing or showing...

[sbcaris]

One point about Carpe Diem is as follows:

Although he has storm cat as his paternal grandsire he has Giant's Causeway as his sire and Giant Causeway is a son of Storm Cat who does not transmit sprinting speed as did Storm Cat. Giants Causeway average win distance as a sire is 8.3 (he is predominantly transmitting stamina to his foals).

So even though Carpe Diem carries Storm Cat on his sire line he probably inherited the stamina part of that sire line to a greater extent than the speed craziness that usually comes from Storm Cat (miler or middle distance type).

I think its wrong to rule out all horses that carry Storm Cat in their pedigrees in the Derby. Not all Storm Cats are just sprinter /middle distance types.

Dortmund is another runner that carries Storm Cat and he is scary because he has dominant classicity a dosage profile that usually spells stamina. Not all Storm Cats are sprinter/middle distance types.

[BlueChip@DRF]

All 44 starters had Storm Cat somewhere in theier blood in various positions. Closest to winning was Bluegrass Cat who came in 2nd.

[sbcaris]

Here are the ones that raced second in the Derby with Storm Cat in their pedigree:

Bodemeister- led the first 6 furlongs in an insane 1:09 and change and still stayed on for second behind Ill Have Another. His broodmare sire was storm cat.

Menifee, with Storm Cat on the Sire Line lost the 1999 Derby by a neck behind Charismatic.

Lion Heart with Storm Cat on the sire line ran second behind Smarty Jones in the slop of 2004.

Ice Box with Storm Cat in the pedigree was a fast closing second behind Super Saver in 2010.

Commanding Curve with Storm Cat in his pedigree was a closing second last year behind California Chrome.

Bluegrass Cat ran second in the 2006 Derby behind Barbaro and also ran second in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes that year. He certainly was not just a middle distance runner like most of the Storm Cats.

These above horses who ran second in the Derby certainly did not lack stamina even though they carried Storm Cat in their pedigrees.

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

One point about Carpe Diem is as follows:

Although he has storm cat as his paternal grandsire he has Giant's Causeway as his sire and Giant Causeway is a son of Storm Cat who does not transmit sprinting speed as did Storm Cat. Giants Causeway average win distance as a sire is 8.3 (he is predominantly transmitting stamina to his foals).

So even though Carpe Diem carries Storm Cat on his sire line he probably inherited the stamina part of that sire line to a greater extent than the speed craziness that usually comes from Storm Cat (miler or middle distance type).

I think its wrong to rule out all horses that carry Storm Cat in their pedigrees in the Derby. Not all Storm Cats are just sprinter /middle distance types.

Dortmund is another runner that carries Storm Cat and he is scary because he has dominant classicity a dosage profile that usually spells stamina. Not all Storm Cats are sprinter/middle distance types.

Carpe Diem is also from female family 23-b.

[sbcaris]

I still think it is wrong to rule out all horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees. Not all horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees are the same. Just because they are O-44 in the win position of the Derby does not necessarily mean that the trend will definitely continue. How many of those 44 were real contenders to begin with? I would love to know how many of those 44 qualified on fast final 3/8 in a big 5 prep race.

I really doubt that having storm cat in one's pedigree is the kiss of death in the Derby.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

I still think it is wrong to rule out all horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees. Not all horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees are the same. Just because they are O-44 in the win position of the Derby does not necessarily mean that the trend will definitely continue. How many of those 44 were real contenders to begin with? I would love to know how many of those 44 qualified on fast final 3/8 in a big 5 prep race.

I really doubt that having storm cat in one's pedigree is the kiss of death in the Derby.

But they do fill out the Exacta nicely.

[f2tornado]

Sire side:

2010: Make Music For Me 4th
2008: Denis of Cork 3rd and Tale Of Ekati 4th
2006: Bluegrass Cat 2nd
2004: Lion Heart 2nd
1999: Menifee 2nd and Cat Thief 3rd

[sbcaris]

Here is an interesting fact: I looked over the last 20 years of my KY Derby data regarding all the qualifiers on my final fraction indicator. ONLY 6 of the last 103 carried Storm Cat in their pedigree and ran out of the money. The six I found that had Storm Cat and ran out of the money in the Derby were:

Ride On Curlin
Verrazano
Vyjack
Creative Cause
Comma To the Top
West Side Bernie

It might be true to say that 44 runners with Storm Cat lost the Derby. But how many lost the Derby that qualified on my final fraction indicator? That number is the 6 above here and the 6 that ran second. Thats 12 of 103 that lost the Ky Derby with Storm Cat in their pedigrees who also achieved a 37 4/5 in a big 5 prep race.

Note: I did not include the 6 horses who ran second in the Derby with Storm Cat in their pedigree.

Main Point: Only 6 horses who carried Storm Cat in their pedigree qualified on my final fraction indicator and ran out of the money. I do not know who the other 32 horses were but these were not contenders to begin with since they did not finish fast in a big 5 prep race.

[SecretAgentMan]

The Storm Cat trend is strong enough by itself. What you're trying g to say is a trend isn't strong w/o your indicator, which is false.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Does anyone have a list of horses that had Storm Cat in their pedigrees over the last 10 years or so and where they finished in the KY Derby?

Last 3 years:

2014:
5) Samarat
7) Ride on Curlin
9) Chitu
12) Intense Holiday
16) Harry's Holiday
18) Wildcat Red
19) Vicar's Trouble

2013:
10) Giant Finish
14 Verrazano
17) Frac Daddy
18) Goldencents
19) Vyjack
20) Falling Sky

2012:
2) Bodemeister
5) Creative Cause
9) Hansen
10) Daddy Nose Best
15) Sabercat
17) Trinneberg
20) Daddy Long Legs

The last 4 years the SC line has accounted for the last place finisher in the Derby{2011-Comma To The Top}.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Last 3 years:

2014:
5) Samarat
7) Ride on Curlin
9) Chitu
12) Intense Holiday
16) Harry's Holiday
18) Wildcat Red
19) Vicar's Trouble

2013:
10) Giant Finish
14 Verrazano
17) Frac Daddy
18) Goldencents
19) Vyjack
20) Falling Sky

2012:
2) Bodemeister
5) Creative Cause
9) Hansen
10) Daddy Nose Best
15) Sabercat
17) Trinneberg
20) Daddy Long Legs

The last 4 years the SC line has accounted for the last place finisher in the Derby{2011-Comma To The Top}.

I've been skeptical, but that is grim.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Just think of all the Derby winners you have missed out on while holding on to long standing Derby myths over the past 15 years:

Charasmatic
War Emblem
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Giacomo
Street Sense
Mine That Bird
Animal Kingdom
California Chrome

Materiality and Carpe Diem on the docket to potentially bust some more long standing Derby myths in 2015.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Just think of all the Derby winners you have missed out on while holding on to long standing Derby myths over the past 15 years:...

It's obvious a handicapper cannot play every single angle. There would be nothing left to wager on. Angle players need to key in on a couple of those angles that provide a solid impact value. Perhaps the can make a stronger wager in years when the counter angles are few or weak. I've seen enough of Stanley's sheets from AT to know American Pharoah (Fractions, RAN) and Carpe Diem (Fractions, 23b) are at or near top of that checklist this year but with this goofy Storm Cat angle going against them. I did appreciate the note about six of the 12 Storm Cat horses with solid fractions finishing second so one could argue they are overrepresented in the exacta. I'm not convinced Storm Cat is the kiss of death but 0-44 is ugly and 0-12 with fractions is still ugly. That said, it would appear AP and CD are strong contenders to hit the board at a minimum. Stanley, what does your final fractions indicator say about Todd Pletcher? His winning percentage (1-40) is one Super Saver above Storm Cat.