The gift of greatness as a horse player.

[Stillriledup]

Do you feel you have a special gift to handicap horses or do you think that any expertise that you learned is something that anyone could have learned if they put in the man power hours ?

Ive had people tell me in my life that i have a "gift" as a handicapper (usually after i released a winner to them and they made money!) and i didnt want to tell them that they're not correct, so i just said thank you and moved on. But i've always wondered if any of us who have spent decades grinding on these races have any "gifts" that not just anyone who spends this much time following the races carefully can get.

I've always just thought that the very best players didn't really have any kinds of gifts, but they were the ones who have a good clue and just outwork most people.

Do you feel you have a gift, or, do you feel that whatever crumbs fall your way is strictly because of decades of hard core experience combined with general intelligence and some hard work sprinkled in for good measure?

[acorn54]

probably not black and white in my life
i developed my brain to do well in the logical sphere, earned a b.s. in accounting, and that aptitude i use in my approach to evaluating the horses in a horse race.
i use my strengths in data analysis, and statistics for wagering on horseraces.
of course others may use the visual or more creative approach. i don't know if that works, but apparantly from some of the posters on this website, they say that they have success.
so it seems one can succeed at this occupation whether they are left or right brain oriented.

[Overlay]

I've known (and envied) skilled handicappers who operated in an intuitive fashion, being able to reliably judge just from a glance at the past performances or by inspection of horses in the walking ring or the post parade, not only which horses were likely to perform well, but also what the acceptable odds on them would be. I suppose that comes to a certain degree from experience, but I always thought that there was also a personality component that could not be taught or completely passed on from one person to another.

Thankfully (for me, at least!), handicapping is a big tent, accommodating and offering the possibility of consistent success to players who come at the game from many different perspectives, including skills that can be replicated and mastered through instruction.

[lamboguy]

i lose on a consistent basis. i am so good at not picking winner's that i am thinking about opening up a service that charges , for giving out losers.

there are people on this board that claim to have a 10-15% positive roi. the problem with those guys are they never post in advance.

i will guarantee 90% losers and post them ahead of time. if for some reason i fail to accomplish this i will give back double the amount of money you pay to get losers.

[Ocala Mike]

What lamboguy said.

Whatever special talents I may have for logical analysis of a given race are dwarfed by my irrational propensity to bet into races where I have no clue and to bet all kinds of "savers" in races where I do have it right.

"The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves" - The Bard of Avon

[acorn54]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i lose on a consistent basis. i am so good at not picking winner's that i am thinking about opening up a service that charges , for giving out losers.

there are people on this board that claim to have a 10-15% positive roi. the problem with those guys are they never post in advance.

i will guarantee 90% losers and post them ahead of time. if for some reason i fail to accomplish this i will give back double the amount of money you pay to get losers.

i for one don't claim to have a consistent positive roi from year to year (i don't)
after 35 years of wagering on the ponies i still only wager with my "thrill money", so that speak volumes on my performance.
lambo, i thought you were highly successful wagering on the ponies.
anyway as far as anyone who is successful with their wagering, considering the fact, that in horseracing we are wagering into a zero-sum parimutuel system, it would be counter-productive to publicize one's selections for wagering, other that for self-aggrandizement, which i doubt would be the greater preference over making money.

[PaceAdvantage]

Instead of a gift, this game often times leaves me feeling the exact opposite...cursed...

[olddaddy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

.

i will guarantee 90% losers and post them ahead of time. if for some reason i fail to accomplish this i will give back double the amount of money you pay to get losers.

I only dream of a 10% strike rate.

The only time I feel gifted are the days when I control myself not to play.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by acorn54

i for one don't claim to have a consistent positive roi from year to year (i don't)
after 35 years of wagering on the ponies i still only wager with my "thrill money", so that speak volumes on my performance.
lambo, i thought you were highly successful wagering on the ponies.
anyway as far as anyone who is successful with their wagering, considering the fact, that in horseracing we are wagering into a zero-sum parimutuel system, it would be counter-productive to publicize one's selections for wagering, other that for self-aggrandizement, which i doubt would be the greater preference over making money.

i have lost money each of the last 3 years after the rebate. the smaller pools have killed me, i am betting way to many races to keep my volume up to get a big rebate. i am betting on lesser chances and worse prices.

[acorn54]

Originally Posted by olddaddy

I only dream of a 10% strike rate.

The only time I feel gifted are the days when I control myself not to play.

well the present state of the racing industry on the gambling side anyway, dissuades me from forking over my money to the races.
with such small fields and very few large fields to bet into my wagering has been dramatically reduced.
i know that they now try to entice with the pik 3-4-5-6 and other tremendously low percentage bets, but i don't like the "long time between drinks", on collecting with such tickets and the outflow of cash before i hit.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Do you feel you have a special gift to handicap horses or do you think that any expertise that you learned is something that anyone could have learned if they put in the man power hours ?

Only in the distant past and not any more.

The more you are involved with this HUMBLING GAME, the more you realize that there is only so much amount of skill you can develop and you should (at least try) to never brag about your abilities when you hit a big score.

In cases where you seem like a “great player” you should keep a low profile, remembering of how many loses it took you to get there and thank God that you eventually got lucky and the photo finish was on your side...

To generalize, the older I grow the more convinced I become, that I am not great in any of the activities I am involved with.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm a bit of a different animal. I find things such as handicapping and the markets, come naturally. I do struggle just as much as the next man with irrational 'gambling' behaviors such as compulsion or chasing losses. However, when it comes to the 'real world' I am a misfit in a lot of everyday stuff.

While I am pretty good at handicapping and reading the markets and wagering in a vacuum, I certainly wouldn't honestly call my 'horseplaying' record 'greatness'. I'm a lifetime loser, and i've had periods of profitable play ruined by fits of frustration. This game has sparked another interest in me which is the study of 'behavioral finance'.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I'm a bit of a different animal. I find things such as handicapping and the markets, come naturally. I do struggle just as much as the next man with irrational 'gambling' behaviors such as compulsion or chasing losses. However, when it comes to the 'real world' I am a misfit in a lot of everyday stuff.

While I am pretty good at handicapping and reading the markets and wagering in a vacuum, I certainly wouldn't honestly call my 'horseplaying' record 'greatness'. I'm a lifetime loser, and i've had periods of profitable play ruined by fits of frustration. This game has sparked another interest in me which is the study of 'behavioral finance'.

Robert, I think the most tangible question would be:

Can a horse bettor achieve greatness

rather than

Do you consider yourself to be a great horse bettor

In other words, does the domain cultivates the creation of greatness or simply can allow a certain level of expertise that can be achieved relatively easy without leaving any room for further development... I tend to believe the latter over the former.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Robert, I think the most tangible question would be:

Can a horse bettor achieve greatness

rather than

Do you consider yourself to be a great horse bettor

In other words, does the domain cultivates the creation of greatness or simply can allow a certain level of expertise that can be achieved relatively easy without leaving any room for further development... I tend to believe the latter over the former.

Those plateaus are very interesting.
Some are literally systemic. Meaning that they are built into the system and provide 'physical' barriers, impossible to penetrate. Others are simply increased levels of difficulty, be it in terms of obtaining 'information/insight' or in terms of your 'behavior'.


As long as you are somewhat responsible, and are not ruining your finances in the process, it's an entertaining game. You can get your highs and lows, you can get your mental stimulation, you can get your challenges...

[Fingal]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Do you feel you have a special gift to handicap horses or do you think that any expertise that you learned is something that anyone could have learned if they put in the man power hours ?

On a sports program I heard Coach K say he asks this to potential recruits during every visit he makes -
" Are you willing to pay the price of preparation ?"

And there is a price to pay but most people aren't willing to do that. All you have to do is look at the number of losing tickets on the ground at the end of the day. Besides becoming a grinder, doing the post mortems, maybe a willingness to look at things a bit differently instead of straight on, aka maybe tweak it a bit off center. For example a trainer may be 18% with a particular move, but I'll turn it around in that also means he/she has 82% losers with it too. Two plus two may equal four, but horses & the people that ride or take care of them aren't just a mathematical equation.

I don't know if Albert Einstein bet on the ponies, but he said it best-

Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.

Horses are not motorcycles
They're made of muscles, bones, tendons
And heart