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04-18-2015, 08:10 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Days Matter
The topics have been so boring recently that cappers are discussing handicapping in threads like the one about the professional gambler. Let's spice this up a bit with a very simple topic-- Days Since Last Raced (DSLR).
What will make this topic interesting are not the facts, but the capper's beliefs. Back in the day horses ran every week or every other week. If they missed their routine a handicapper could reasonable suspect something might be wrong. Else wise, why would a barn miss a paycheck? Fast forward to recent times with less horses, less races, more effective training methods, and now days appear not to matter anymore. And here's my point, most cappers today will argue that DSLR is meaningless now. Value players will point out that long layoffs are a good source of profit. And this is mostly true. But guess what you must do with horses coming back after a layoff or horses that haven't been on the track the last 30 days? (Answer below)
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Handicap!
Yea, you have to figure them out. Starting off by looking at the trainer's success rate with returning horses might help. Looking at the race conditions as it applies to the laid off horse might help. Figuring by the horse's age and race type might help. (A three year old in a claimer is a different scenario than a three year in a graded race.) Most laid off horses are still duds. But some just might pay well. What are your thoughts on DSLR?
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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04-18-2015, 08:53 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,230
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Form/condition are one of the three main criteria for me.
As to lay offs, I believe, as have many authors I've read, that if a horse has not raced in 4 weeks (28 days), I consider the horse a lay off horse.
I have set my Bris pp generator to draw the lay off lines at 28 days. The default for the program is 45 days.
Stakes, and other quality race horses are in a different class and can win more frequently than cheapies off lay offs, so my ratings of older races have more relevance.
I will always make a pace line off the most recent race if within 28 days. If the race is not reflective of todays race, say higher class, different distance, and other reasons, I may go back to other races. If I do, I will write the recent figures, and underneath will write the figures for the pace line I use in parentheses.
If off a lay off, I will use the best/fastest line, and will write that pace line in parentheses.
A strong key is if a lay off horse's best race is slower than a horse with a current race, that horse has a low probability to win.
And for horses off 6 months or more I look up the breeding in Sire Stats for FTS breeding and write the letter on my worksheet. After losing to long lay off horses I decided these are similar to a first start. but this definitely is not a prime factor for me.
But a horses with recent races trumps lay off horses most, but not of the time for me.
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04-18-2015, 09:22 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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First thing is to determine why the trainer kept the horse out of the races. Was it a freshening, or did the horse have an issue? Trainers have been using layoffs as a method to get the best out of their racers for some time now. It's not unusual for a horse to run it's best race in some time fresh off the layoff. If a horse was running well at short odds, meaning there was expectations, and a trainer gives the horse 50-60 days away from the races, I can usually tell by the work out pattern that the break is being used to crank the horse just a little tighter. If there was a problem, the work out pattern will usually disclose that also. Then again, it's important to know the trainers. RMandella is outstanding tweaking a horse with a short layoff, whereas BAbrams only lays them off if it's absolutely necessary for the horse's well being. He's been quoted as saying if the horse is feeling fine, let it run, even if it's not ready to give it's very best. BBaffert usually has them ready to give a peak performance right off the layoff, whereas JSadler usually wants to get one in them. Sadler is probably one of the very least successful layoff trainers in SoCal. REllis is the master of the "45 day tweak".
Layoffs are a training strategy now, whereas in the 80s when I started handicapping it almost always meant the horse had been dealing with a health issue.
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04-18-2015, 09:59 AM
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#4
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Days Since Last Race is one of those factors that is a holdout from a bi-gone era that needs to be taken out and shot.
In my book, Percentages & Probabilities 2012 I presented PROOF of how wrong the old premise was.
Again and again, I have heard horse players say, "Well, I don't care. I am still not going to bet a horse coming off a layoff."
This, despite the fact that they have a higher hit rate AND a better $net than horses coming back in any other time frame.
From my book, I present Quirin's data from 1979 and then my data from a much larger and much new sample.
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04-18-2015, 10:02 AM
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#5
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Just to prove that this is no fluke, here is a study from 2008-2010 that is a little more granular.
I do not have a snapshot of this handy but if you looked close, you would find that 31-45 days is the sweet spot, producing the highest hit rate and the highest $Net.
And the high-of-the-high would be 30-35 days.
Code:
2010-all.
224-Days
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1-5 1,230 146 11.9 $1.85 0.93 1.15 1.10
6 1,832 219 12.0 $1.39 0.94 1.06 0.99
7 4,952 555 11.2 $1.50 0.89 1.02 0.97
8 4,530 524 11.6 $1.69 0.93 1.05 1.03
9 4,817 562 11.7 $1.32 0.93 1.03 0.96
10 5,017 597 11.9 $1.41 0.95 1.01 0.97
11 5,836 678 11.6 $1.42 0.93 0.98 0.95
12 7,558 889 11.8 $1.44 0.95 0.98 0.96
13 11,420 1,365 12.0 $1.42 0.97 0.99 0.97
14 23,040 2,865 12.4 $1.53 1.02 1.02 1.01
15 13,546 1,638 12.1 $1.52 1.00 1.00 1.00
16 10,339 1,287 12.4 $1.52 1.02 1.01 1.01
17 8,557 1,049 12.3 $1.51 1.01 0.99 0.99
18 8,457 1,059 12.5 $1.49 1.02 1.00 1.00
19 9,960 1,269 12.7 $1.43 1.04 1.02 1.00
20 13,861 1,765 12.7 $1.47 1.06 1.01 1.01
21 18,570 2,329 12.5 $1.52 1.04 0.99 1.00
22 11,180 1,389 12.4 $1.52 1.02 0.97 0.98
23 7,488 1,014 13.5 $1.57 1.12 1.04 1.05
24 5,845 705 12.1 $1.35 0.99 0.93 0.93
25 5,536 692 12.5 $1.49 1.02 0.98 0.99
26 6,460 860 13.3 $1.42 1.09 1.02 1.01
27 8,336 1,087 13.0 $1.59 1.08 1.00 1.03
28 12,038 1,528 12.7 $1.46 1.05 0.98 0.99
29 7,161 928 13.0 $1.56 1.07 1.01 1.02
30 4,803 599 12.5 $1.54 1.03 0.96 0.99
60 68,684 9,081 13.2 $1.55 1.09 1.02 1.03
90 14,733 1,717 11.7 $1.56 0.98 1.00 1.00
120 6,688 702 10.5 $1.41 0.89 1.01 0.95
150 4,538 447 9.9 $1.38 0.83 0.99 0.92
180 3,892 400 10.3 $1.53 0.86 1.00 0.96
210 3,649 332 9.1 $1.31 0.75 0.89 0.84
240 2,770 254 9.2 $1.17 0.75 0.89 0.82
above 1,153 117 10.1 $1.11 0.84 1.00 0.88
Total 328,476 40,648 12.4 $1.50 1.02 0.98
2009-all.
224-Days
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
5 1,344 146 10.9 $1.48 0.87 1.03 0.97
6 2,003 222 11.1 $1.49 0.90 1.06 0.99
7 4,749 568 12.0 $1.71 0.97 1.12 1.08
8 4,798 523 10.9 $1.32 0.89 1.01 0.94
9 4,982 584 11.7 $1.38 0.95 1.02 0.97
10 5,185 624 12.0 $1.51 0.98 1.05 1.01
11 6,236 717 11.5 $1.36 0.94 0.98 0.94
12 8,172 982 12.0 $1.41 0.98 1.01 0.98
13 12,672 1,538 12.1 $1.49 1.00 1.02 1.00
14 23,767 2,896 12.2 $1.51 1.02 1.02 1.01
15 14,931 1,787 12.0 $1.43 1.00 1.00 0.98
16 11,154 1,323 11.9 $1.56 1.00 0.98 0.99
17 9,590 1,126 11.7 $1.43 0.97 0.94 0.94
18 9,379 1,171 12.5 $1.45 1.03 1.00 0.99
19 10,409 1,261 12.1 $1.48 1.00 0.97 0.97
20 13,875 1,708 12.3 $1.51 1.03 0.99 1.00
21 18,173 2,290 12.6 $1.45 1.05 0.99 0.99
22 11,586 1,427 12.3 $1.43 1.02 0.97 0.97
23 7,889 1,008 12.8 $1.50 1.06 0.99 1.00
24 6,437 763 11.9 $1.46 0.98 0.94 0.95
25 6,233 791 12.7 $1.44 1.05 0.98 0.98
26 6,739 881 13.1 $1.55 1.08 0.98 1.01
27 8,723 1,133 13.0 $1.52 1.08 1.01 1.02
28 12,381 1,576 12.7 $1.51 1.07 0.99 1.01
29 7,614 962 12.6 $1.50 1.06 0.98 1.00
30 4,891 675 13.8 $1.65 1.14 1.05 1.08
60 70,971 9,363 13.2 $1.56 1.10 1.03 1.04
90 15,511 1,785 11.5 $1.51 0.97 1.01 0.99
120 6,698 635 9.5 $1.36 0.81 0.93 0.89
150 4,467 415 9.3 $1.48 0.80 0.94 0.91
180 3,915 371 9.5 $1.34 0.80 0.94 0.88
210 3,596 351 9.8 $1.38 0.82 1.00 0.92
240 2,920 245 8.4 $1.22 0.70 0.86 0.80
above 1,232 114 9.3 $1.30 0.77 0.94 0.87
Total 343,222 41,961 12.2 $1.49 1.02 0.97
2008-all.
224-Days
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
5 1,393 163 11.7 $1.71 0.94 1.13 1.07
6 1,909 223 11.7 $1.71 0.93 1.11 1.06
7 4,468 482 10.8 $1.37 0.87 0.99 0.93
8 4,642 527 11.4 $1.56 0.91 1.01 0.98
9 4,985 605 12.1 $1.50 0.97 1.03 1.00
10 5,895 722 12.2 $1.44 1.00 1.04 1.00
11 6,458 784 12.1 $1.59 0.98 1.03 1.02
12 8,511 1,034 12.1 $1.53 0.99 1.01 1.00
13 12,284 1,512 12.3 $1.54 1.01 1.02 1.01
14 22,734 2,822 12.4 $1.53 1.02 1.02 1.01
15 14,607 1,800 12.3 $1.51 1.01 1.01 1.00
16 11,355 1,359 12.0 $1.48 0.98 0.97 0.97
17 9,405 1,218 13.0 $1.53 1.05 1.04 1.03
18 9,366 1,186 12.7 $1.64 1.03 1.00 1.02
19 10,906 1,359 12.5 $1.53 1.02 0.99 1.00
20 13,715 1,735 12.7 $1.53 1.04 1.00 1.01
21 17,830 2,223 12.5 $1.49 1.03 0.98 0.99
22 12,401 1,558 12.6 $1.54 1.04 1.00 1.01
23 8,420 1,093 13.0 $1.49 1.07 1.00 1.01
24 6,824 860 12.6 $1.54 1.04 0.97 0.99
25 6,364 832 13.1 $1.57 1.07 0.98 1.01
26 6,911 919 13.3 $1.48 1.09 1.01 1.02
27 8,467 1,138 13.4 $1.55 1.10 1.01 1.03
28 12,045 1,591 13.2 $1.49 1.10 1.01 1.02
29 7,302 915 12.5 $1.41 1.03 0.96 0.96
30 5,120 675 13.2 $1.63 1.10 1.00 1.04
60 73,055 9,506 13.0 $1.54 1.08 1.01 1.02
90 15,362 1,734 11.3 $1.52 0.96 0.99 0.98
120 6,941 706 10.2 $1.37 0.86 0.98 0.92
150 4,673 410 8.8 $1.24 0.75 0.91 0.84
180 4,143 415 10.0 $1.74 0.84 1.02 1.00
210 3,541 336 9.5 $1.55 0.78 0.96 0.92
240 2,952 270 9.1 $1.33 0.75 0.93 0.86
above 1,304 115 8.8 $1.16 0.72 0.87 0.80
Total 346,288 42,827 12.4 $1.52 1.02 0.98
Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 04-18-2015 at 10:04 AM.
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04-18-2015, 10:12 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnGalt1
Form/condition are one of the three main criteria for me.
As to lay offs, I believe, as have many authors I've read, that if a horse has not raced in 4 weeks (28 days), I consider the horse a lay off horse.
I have set my Bris pp generator to draw the lay off lines at 28 days. The default for the program is 45 days.
Stakes, and other quality race horses are in a different class and can win more frequently than cheapies off lay offs, so my ratings of older races have more relevance.
I will always make a pace line off the most recent race if within 28 days. If the race is not reflective of todays race, say higher class, different distance, and other reasons, I may go back to other races. If I do, I will write the recent figures, and underneath will write the figures for the pace line I use in parentheses.
If off a lay off, I will use the best/fastest line, and will write that pace line in parentheses.
A strong key is if a lay off horse's best race is slower than a horse with a current race, that horse has a low probability to win.
And for horses off 6 months or more I look up the breeding in Sire Stats for FTS breeding and write the letter on my worksheet. After losing to long lay off horses I decided these are similar to a first start. but this definitely is not a prime factor for me.
But a horses with recent races trumps lay off horses most, but not of the time for me.
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Good example. You draw a line like in the old days, but then take a second look at the laid off horses.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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04-18-2015, 10:15 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
First thing is to determine why the trainer kept the horse out of the races. Was it a freshening, or did the horse have an issue? Trainers have been using layoffs as a method to get the best out of their racers for some time now. It's not unusual for a horse to run it's best race in some time fresh off the layoff. If a horse was running well at short odds, meaning there was expectations, and a trainer gives the horse 50-60 days away from the races, I can usually tell by the work out pattern that the break is being used to crank the horse just a little tighter. If there was a problem, the work out pattern will usually disclose that also. Then again, it's important to know the trainers. RMandella is outstanding tweaking a horse with a short layoff, whereas BAbrams only lays them off if it's absolutely necessary for the horse's well being. He's been quoted as saying if the horse is feeling fine, let it run, even if it's not ready to give it's very best. BBaffert usually has them ready to give a peak performance right off the layoff, whereas JSadler usually wants to get one in them. Sadler is probably one of the very least successful layoff trainers in SoCal. REllis is the master of the "45 day tweak".
Layoffs are a training strategy now, whereas in the 80s when I started handicapping it almost always meant the horse had been dealing with a health issue.
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Another good example. Handicap by know thy trainers.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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04-18-2015, 10:23 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Dave,
I like and recommend your book Percentages and Probabilities 2012. Lots of good stats in it. From your book, I check for how many times a horse has worked in a sprint race, and when was the last time the horse was on the track. The late Danny Holmes used to demand twice on the track in the last 30 days. But here is where we part ways. I handicap instead of eliminate a horse based on the stats. And the stats are in your favor, but the profit is in my favor.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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04-18-2015, 12:31 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,700
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I can remember thoroughbreds on the California fair circuit racing every 3-4 days if on form in the late 70's. It does seem that Harness horses are still racing every week like they were 35 years ago. Since I first went to the track in 1975 higher class horses always had long gaps between races, it was "Old Glue Factory" a lifetime $3200 claimer that had 100 lifetime starts at the age of 5, the Spectacular Bids of the world were racing every 6 weeks or so.
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04-18-2015, 01:03 PM
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#10
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Even with the changes in racing frequency, I still find "days since last 'good' race" (per Quirin's definition), as opposed to just "days since last race", to be a useful metric.
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04-18-2015, 01:16 PM
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#11
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Unreconstructed
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Appalachia
Posts: 6,646
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Dirt
I can remember thoroughbreds on the California fair circuit racing every 3-4 days if on form in the late 70's.
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Barry Abrams still does that, although he did it more at Pomona. I think he would like his horses to have something to do at night. A lot of his stock are overraced.
__________________
Deo Vindice
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04-18-2015, 01:46 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Overlay
Even with the changes in racing frequency, I still find "days since last 'good' race" (per Quirin's definition), as opposed to just "days since last race", to be a useful metric.
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Days Since Last Good Race is a good one.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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04-18-2015, 03:31 PM
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#13
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Quote:
And the stats are in your favor, but the profit is in my favor.
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That is all that matters.
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04-18-2015, 06:53 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 22
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Recency
I would like to a see a study on recency that excludes 2 year olds and all Maiden and Stakes races.
I then think the 30 day rule would work better.
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04-18-2015, 07:11 PM
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#15
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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I wish the PP's would incorporate info if the horse was on the vets list and why. I've seen a vets list published by the CHRB. If the horse was off and not on the vets list nothing needs to be noted.
Al, a good topic.
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