How much "ammo" you plan on using for the Derby?

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Is that for $2?

1 dollar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by nads1420

ever hit the super? and if you do hit the super how do you cash that? do they just hand you 20k thru the window straight cash?

Last year I had the tri and super multiple times. The wagers were placed online. They take 25% off the top and credit your account with the rest.

[SecretAgentMan]

Only thing I ever box is Exactas.......if I play tris & supers, I like to key 1 to 3 horses on top, with 5 to 7 in 2nd, 3rd & 4th.......way too expensive to box them.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Last year I had the tri and super multiple times. The wagers were placed online. They take 25% off the top and credit your account with the rest.

It really is a shame that horses & the lottery tax us do much off our winnings......would be nice if they gave us back 25% of our losses at the end of the year as well, its only fair.

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by Stoleitbreezing

I'm available for adoption Jim. Lol.

Are they mostly keys or will you be constructing big part wheels for high noms?

Jim had a pretty good day with the exotics last Derby..

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY

Is the increased play a function of conviction or a matter of hedging?

It will be a sad outcome if the winner has Baffert for a trainer. His top two in the money makes for short exacta and trifecta payoffs. The only way to cash big is for a monster price to show up in the super. But with the big payoffs of recent years, many people spread in the win pool knocking down the true longshots below 40-1.

A very good year for a strong contrarian opinion. But think too long and ultimately think wrong. My tendency this year maybe to focus on the Oaks-Derby Double.

Best of luck and turn that 3-4K into 20+K.

I've had a good run last four years with the derby and become more confident each year with my selection method. I'm not a win pool player. I spread a fair amount but usually focus on two key horses. I rank my opinions and really hammer my prime plays to the extent that if I'm right I get rewarded big time. Each year I've raised my sites.
I also do a bit of hedging against horses that concern me, but my hedging is designed only to recover my bankroll or make a small profit should one of my key plays not win.

I find myself spending more and more time each year determining how to play the race. I go through numerous iterations and normally the final version is produced early derby morning!

Of course a chalky outcome would be a downer but the history of the race shows that it only takes a little disruption in the finish order to spike a nice payout.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I've had a good run last four years with the derby and become more confident each year with my selection method. I'm not a win pool player. I spread a fair amount but usually focus on two key horses. I rank my opinions and really hammer my prime plays to the extent that if I'm right I get rewarded big time. Each year I've raised my sites.
I also do a bit of hedging against horses that concern me, but my hedging is designed only to recover my bankroll or make a small profit should one of my key plays not win.

I find myself spending more and more time each year determining how to play the race. I go through numerous iterations and normally the final version is produced early derby morning!

Of course a chalky outcome would be a downer but the history of the race shows that it only takes a little disruption in the finish order to spike a nice payout.

who you like at this point for this year?

[ultracapper]

Been doing the same thing for years. I take all the winners of the big 4 G1s, SA derby, Wood, FLA Derby, and whatever they call the other one now, I still call it the Bluegrass, and find a 5th horse that either ran well in one of those or a winner from one of the other graded preps, do a $2 5 horse exacta box and a $1 5 horse tri box. $100. I'm way up on the Kentucky Derby lifetime.

[Ocala Mike]

This is to have $1 on every possible super combination. If you eliminate only 4 horses who couldn't possibly finish as high as fourth, you can have $1 on it for "only" $43,680.

Not for me, though - I like to bet a little to win a lot, so I will probably invest around $100 into the race, mostly on tris/exactas/Oaks-Derby DD.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Stoleitbreezing

I'm curious to see how others approach their bets for the derby.

I would had been happy if I had been passing the Derby every year! In a period of over twenty years, I managed to hit it only twice (Real Quite X Victory Gallop and Big Brown X Eight Bells) something that results to a really miserable ROI (my Preakness Record is even worse)..

I have arrived to the conclusion that the Derby is a very bad betting race that should be avoided as much as possible. Surely this is easier to say than do, since I have also learned that the urge to bet the Derby is impossible to avoid and the best I can do is to try to at least not get crazy and limit my bets within a reasonable size.

As far as strategy, I will try to detect the most competitive of the prep races and if its winner is in the Derby, I will decide if I will give credit to him for a possible repeat or even improve. Ideally, I would prefer to find more negatives than positives to him as in most of the other obvious contenders, something that will shift my interest to some of the more obscure contenders.

In a race like the Derby, I would try to invest somewhere within the range of $300 - $400, looking for a horse that will crash his career top by a huge margin. I will try to hook it in some form of a horizontal exotic, something like a double or a pick three, ideally combining with another high value spot. I will only bet my pick only in the top two, spots, leaving at least one of the obvious horses completely out of my tickets....

From the handicapping scope of view, I will be more inclined to pick a horse, who will present an obvious flaw for the judgement of a classical handicapper. It might be a horse who does not have started as a two year old or has a speedy pedigree or anything else that will make average bettors reluctant to bet on him...

[spiketoo]

Going to Vegas. 1K to win on Mubtaahij @ 12-1 or better then parlay it on Pacquiao.

Or not...

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by spiketoo

Going to Vegas. 1K to win on Mubtaahij @ 12-1 or better then parlay it on Pacquiao.

Or not...

Who is Mayweather betting on? I need help eliminating some contenders.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Who is Mayweather betting on? I need help eliminating some contenders.

Since Mayweather is getting paid the highest payout ever in boxing, he will probably place $1 million on 5 horses each, & if he wins, post the ticket, haha!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Since Mayweather is getting paid the highest payout ever in boxing, he will probably place $1 million on 5 horses each, & if he wins, post the ticket, haha!

I hope so! Anti-bet the guy who bet on the Broncos in the Super Bowl.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by nads1420

who you like at this point for this year?

still finalizing things but I'm nearly positive that I'll be using American Pharaoh and Frosted as keys, with more weight on AP.