Learning From Derby History

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Roughly 1:10 and 4

so sub 1:10.4 you consider fast or deadly? then do you have a moderate range before slow

[menifee]

Since they have gone to the point system, they've eliminated all the sprinters trying to stretch out. My instinct is that we will have more moderate paces going forward than in years past. The exception to that was PM who they put blinkers on and became rank.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by nads1420

so sub 1:10.4 you consider fast or deadly? then do you have a moderate range before slow

Anything under 1:10 is suicidal.

Around 1:11 horses can hang. Anything above that, speed will hold.

[nads1420]

What about the fact that Firing Line went the first 6 in 1:09 flat in Sunland then finished at 1:47.2 and didnt really look like he was weakening much... granted against no one.. but im just talking vs teh clock.. thats gotta be a plus for him, no?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by menifee

Since they have gone to the point system, they've eliminated all the sprinters trying to stretch out. My instinct is that we will have more moderate paces going forward than in years past. The exception to that was PM who they put blinkers on and became rank.

Yep.

PM was just crazy. I was in near tears when he was on the lead at 1:09 and change holding my WPS ticket on him.

One of the most absurd Derby rides I've ever seen. I figured maybe blinkers was a good thing, and then having Mike Smith on board is always a bonus, right?

At least I got paid in the Belmont.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by nads1420

What about the fact that Firing Line went the first 6 in 1:09 flat in Sunland then finished at 1:47.2 and didnt really look like he was weakening much... granted against no one.. but im just talking vs teh clock.. thats gotta be a plus for him, no?

Firing Line is a serious contender. As is his nemesis in Dortmund.

As for Sunland Park? Not gonna pay much attention to those numbers. It is known as a fast track favoring speed.

Either way, FL ran very well that day. For me, FL's works over the track in Louisville will be one of the more important horses I'll be paying attention to. He will either take to it, or not. If he does take to it, look out.

[Matt Bryan]

Originally Posted by clocker7

I wouldn't attribute last year's KD solely to pace. No, I believe that last year's crop featured colts that had bona fide 10f capabilities, and even decency at 12f.

I'm not sold on this crop. I think it tends to be more like the two previous to the 2014 guys.

I don't really agree. Aside from aforementioned running styles, this crop seems better than last year to me...for the distance. Considering Wildcat Red, Samraat, et al. I don't know, of course, but the race shape seemed more clear last year.

[f2tornado]

Dortmund always seems to run around 1:10.4. That horse seems to have one gear only and it's full speed ahead. Most of these probably cant hang with him so I figure 1:10 and change is gonna be a rough pace estimate. He's gonna slow down a little late but probably not off a cliff if the SA Derby is any guide. I'm thinking stalkers over deep closers if that's how it shakes out.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Don't be surprised if you see Standford on the lead...and stick around for 4th. Shackleford style. First thing I thought of after watching the LA Derby.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by nads1420

What about the fact that Firing Line went the first 6 in 1:09 flat in Sunland then finished at 1:47.2 and didnt really look like he was weakening much... granted against no one.. but im just talking vs teh clock.. thats gotta be a plus for him, no?

Sunland is hard as a rock with little resistance.

Edit:
Just for fun, did a little Brohammer style %Early numbers for a couple of contenders in their prep

Firing Line 52.54%
Materiality 52.37%
Dortmund 52.04%
American Pharaorh 51.71%
Frosted 49.66%

So it appears your assertion that FL wasn't weakening much appears to be wrong.