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Old 04-15-2015, 07:53 PM   #1
nads1420
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Learning From Derby History

One thing I always try to do is learn from derby past history but the one thing I cant crack the code on is what separates a Bellamy Road to a California Chrome... Both looked equally impressive in the prep season but Chrome closed the deal and Bellamy Road lost to Giacomo...
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Old 04-15-2015, 08:31 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by nads1420
One thing I always try to do is learn from derby past history but the one thing I cant crack the code on is what separates a Bellamy Road to a California Chrome... Both looked equally impressive in the prep season but Chrome closed the deal and Bellamy Road lost to Giacomo...
Pace. Pace. Pace.

In 2005 when Giacomo won, they went out in :22.38, :45.38, and 1:09.59. Bellamy Road was right there and took the lead (or was right there) at a mile, or just after; and he was cooked.

Chrome got the benefit of :23.04, :47.37, and 1:11.80 before he took over at the top of the stretch. The 2F to 4F split was huge for him as they took over :24 to run that part of the race followed by another :24 plus fraction from 4F to 6F.

Those are massive differences in pace, and he had plenty left when Commanding Curve, Danza, and Wicked Strong came after him. Keep in mind CC did have a 5 length lead, and only won by 1 3/4 lengths when all was said and done.

The part I'm struggling with most right now (as in every Derby), is what pace are we really going to get? Just when you think it will be average, it becomes brutally fast (2013 with Palace Malice and Normandy's Invasion basically taking each other out of nearly all my tickets), and then paces like last year where you expect solid fractions and don't get it.

This year is particularly tough because it looks like it should be speed induced with almost all the chalk being frontrunner speed types. You need about 3 to 4 to hook up in some form or fashion to really push the pace. Will they all commit? I highly doubt it, but there are other horses without much chance coming from off the pace as well that will show up on the front end and surprise everybody.

What also makes the old burning paced Derby's of year's past difficult to project today, is the new points standings method of getting in. The horses that have done well in the longer distance races are the horses that will line up in the starting gates. We no longer see 5 or 6 7F to 8F max horses that have to blitz to the lead to win. We now have a much more competitive Derby field without any "rabbits", so to speak, who don't have any real chance.

One thing is for sure. There are about a half dozen horses that will absolutely be no part of the early speed, and are purely handed (good or bad) the result of the early pace without much choice.

(Sorry, for such a long and ridiculous response.)
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Old 04-15-2015, 11:03 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Pace. Pace. Pace.

In 2005 when Giacomo won, they went out in :22.38, :45.38, and 1:09.59. Bellamy Road was right there and took the lead (or was right there) at a mile, or just after; and he was cooked.

Chrome got the benefit of :23.04, :47.37, and 1:11.80 before he took over at the top of the stretch. The 2F to 4F split was huge for him as they took over :24 to run that part of the race followed by another :24 plus fraction from 4F to 6F.

Those are massive differences in pace, and he had plenty left when Commanding Curve, Danza, and Wicked Strong came after him. Keep in mind CC did have a 5 length lead, and only won by 1 3/4 lengths when all was said and done.

The part I'm struggling with most right now (as in every Derby), is what pace are we really going to get? Just when you think it will be average, it becomes brutally fast (2013 with Palace Malice and Normandy's Invasion basically taking each other out of nearly all my tickets), and then paces like last year where you expect solid fractions and don't get it.

This year is particularly tough because it looks like it should be speed induced with almost all the chalk being frontrunner speed types. You need about 3 to 4 to hook up in some form or fashion to really push the pace. Will they all commit? I highly doubt it, but there are other horses without much chance coming from off the pace as well that will show up on the front end and surprise everybody.

What also makes the old burning paced Derby's of year's past difficult to project today, is the new points standings method of getting in. The horses that have done well in the longer distance races are the horses that will line up in the starting gates. We no longer see 5 or 6 7F to 8F max horses that have to blitz to the lead to win. We now have a much more competitive Derby field without any "rabbits", so to speak, who don't have any real chance.

One thing is for sure. There are about a half dozen horses that will absolutely be no part of the early speed, and are purely handed (good or bad) the result of the early pace without much choice.

(Sorry, for such a long and ridiculous response.)
Great analysis. And pace analysis is even more complicated in this day and age. Trainers and jockeys are analyzing pace now also, so if you see a meltdown pace, so do they and nobody sends. If you see a lone early, so do they and some clunker that has never ran closer than 10 lengths back at the first call is suddenly wiring the field. I think anymore you have to what if analysis at least two pace scenarios. That becomes even more difficult in a race such as the Kentucky Derby when you have multiple talented horses that can use their speed at a moments notice.
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Old 04-15-2015, 11:27 PM   #4
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Great analysis. And pace analysis is even more complicated in this day and age. Trainers and jockeys are analyzing pace now also, so if you see a meltdown pace, so do they and nobody sends. If you see a lone early, so do they and some clunker that has never ran closer than 10 lengths back at the first call is suddenly wiring the field. I think anymore you have to what if analysis at least two pace scenarios. That becomes even more difficult in a race such as the Kentucky Derby when you have multiple talented horses that can use their speed at a moments notice.
Yep.

What I'm scared of is that EVERYBODY is expecting a hot pace. We may not get one, and then all the Derby Prep Race chalk rolls home to roost again. (We've seen it before..., just last year..).

I have to go against speed in the Derby. Too much history tells me so.
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Old 04-15-2015, 11:42 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Yep.

What I'm scared of is that EVERYBODY is expecting a hot pace. We may not get one, and then all the Derby Prep Race chalk rolls home to roost again. (We've seen it before..., just last year..).

I have to go against speed in the Derby. Too much history tells me so.


IMO, there will be a ton of speed, some lower tier speed from.Stanford, Tencendur, Firing Line, & Materiiality will be right there on their heels & might go up to the front as well......Dort, AP, Upstart & Carpe will stalk the pace.......& coming around the final turn, a collapse of all the horses up front, & here come the closers!

Every article I read from supposed experts has them saying they all think it will be a modest pace, I beg to differ......

Do NOT compare last years horses with this year......there is no comparison at all!
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Old 04-15-2015, 11:47 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
IMO, there will be a ton of speed, some lower tier speed from.Stanford, Tencendur, Firing Line, & Materiiality will be right there on their heels & might go up to the front as well......Dort, AP, Upstart & Carpe will stalk the pace.......& coming around the final turn, a collapse of all the horses up front, & here come the closers!

Every article I read from supposed experts has them saying they all think it will be a modest pace, I beg to differ......

Do NOT compare last years horses with this year......there is no comparison at all!
Definitely not comparing one crop to the next crop from year to year to get scared about that.

Just taking in past history, and like yourself, trying to figure it out.

Because when all is said and done PACE will be the most key factor in this race, just like every other KD race.
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Old 04-15-2015, 11:59 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Definitely not comparing one crop to the next crop from year to year to get scared about that.

Just taking in past history, and like yourself, trying to figure it out.

Because when all is said and done PACE will be the most key factor in this race, just like every other KD race.

My statements about the pace is hypothetical......if I really knew how the pace would be run, the derby would be easier to predict. There are so many aspects to predicting the derby, that we over think the situation, & our minds become scrambled.

Only possible way in solving & capping the KD easier, is to write a computer program, & place these 20 horses into the program, run a simulation of the race 10,000 times, & then you should get the possible winner w/o scrambling the brain, haha!
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Old 04-16-2015, 12:55 AM   #8
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I to believe the pace will be hot based on run styles in the race and speed points it should be fast.
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Old 04-16-2015, 02:21 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
My statements about the pace is hypothetical......if I really knew how the pace would be run, the derby would be easier to predict. There are so many aspects to predicting the derby, that we over think the situation, & our minds become scrambled.

Only possible way in solving & capping the KD easier, is to write a computer program, & place these 20 horses into the program, run a simulation of the race 10,000 times, & then you should get the possible winner w/o scrambling the brain, haha!
I guarantee the computer will be more wrong than right. Hell, it would fail miserably.
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Old 04-16-2015, 04:27 AM   #10
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I wouldn't attribute last year's KD solely to pace. No, I believe that last year's crop featured colts that had bona fide 10f capabilities, and even decency at 12f.

I'm not sold on this crop. I think it tends to be more like the two previous to the 2014 guys.
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Old 04-16-2015, 09:42 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
IMO, there will be a ton of speed, some lower tier speed from.Stanford, Tencendur, Firing Line, & Materiiality will be right there on their heels & might go up to the front as well......Dort, AP, Upstart & Carpe will stalk the pace.......& coming around the final turn, a collapse of all the horses up front, & here come the closers!

Every article I read from supposed experts has them saying they all think it will be a modest pace, I beg to differ......

Do NOT compare last years horses with this year......there is no comparison at all!
well except for Chrome he was special. i consider him one of the best 4 Derby winners in this millenium. In random order Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Barbaro, California Chrome. I cant wait to see this derby winner hopefully square off against chrome down the line. we rarely ever get to see that.
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Old 04-16-2015, 09:48 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Definitely not comparing one crop to the next crop from year to year to get scared about that.

Just taking in past history, and like yourself, trying to figure it out.

Because when all is said and done PACE will be the most key factor in this race, just like every other KD race.

Well can we identify which horses benefit from a fast pace, slow pace, and which horses the pace has no effect on? And can every horse be put in one of those 3 categories. Then can we identify what fractions what fractions constitutes a fast or slow or moderate pace in this race... think that makes sense... just confused myself
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Old 04-16-2015, 09:56 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by nads1420
Well can we identify which horses benefit from a fast pace, slow pace, and which horses the pace has no effect on? And can every horse be put in one of those 3 categories. Then can we identify what fractions what fractions constitutes a fast or slow or moderate pace in this race... think that makes sense... just confused myself
The toughest nut to crack in every Derby ever, is figuring out the 4F and 6F splits.

Just between 2013 and 2014, we had 2+ second differences on those splits which had a monster impact on the outcome.

You can throw track variant stuff at me all day, but when they go out in 1:09 and change, nobody within 3 to 4 lengths of that lead is getting home unless it is a very special horse.

If you can guarantee me those splits within a half second this year, then I'm all ears.
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Old 04-16-2015, 10:07 AM   #14
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what is that cutoff for you? 1:10, 1:11, 1:12 etc
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Old 04-16-2015, 10:13 AM   #15
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what is that cutoff for you? 1:10, 1:11, 1:12 etc
Roughly 1:10 and 4
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