brisnet late pace

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I loved Chrome last year......IMO, he was the fastest horse out there, & the competition was very weak. This year we have several Chrome like horses, & that spells disaster for AP, Dortmund & Firing Line.......

I liked him on paper so to speak. However, it was his pedigree that ultimately got me and being such a strong favorite I wanted to beat him. What really gets me is I couldn't find a pedigree in the field that fit for Derby horses I have had in the past. So really it was a non-angle from my point of view and I should have dropped it instead I tried dividing by zero so to speak.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Huddy Goodjob

Watching the replay he didn't appear to be running full speed at any time in the race.

Bring up gallop outs...I always appreciate a horse who closes and gallops out past the ones who finished in front of them...Madefromlucky showed this in the AK Derby.

Some horses just have high "cruising" speeds, which AP has. The fact that AP appeared to be "cruising" while turning fast fractions, and then appeared to be "cruising" in the final 1/16th, "appears" to be very impressive. But, don't get overly excited about his "apparent" lack of energy expenditure. This is a very large animal, with a very large stride (which requires a fair amount of energy expenditure to accomplish, in and of itself), carrying a lot of weight (which also, in and of itself requires a fair amount of energy expenditure compared to other lighter horses). That means that, although he doesn't "seem" to be expending as much energy as other smaller, shorter striding horses, in truth, he probably is. Liken it to a Shaquille O'Neal, in pro basketball, lumbering up and down the court, in what appears to be a lazy fashion. At the end of the game he is just as tired, if not moreso, than smaller, lighter players.

Add another 1/8 mile to that last race and AP will surely be a very tired horse at the end of the Derby.

[nads1420]

semi unrelated... maybe im ignorant but i dont believe when a jockey eases off a horse the last 100 yards that a month later he will have more energy... sounds like a bunch of hogwash to me

[raybo]

Originally Posted by nads1420

semi unrelated... maybe im ignorant but i dont believe when a jockey eases off a horse the last 100 yards that a month later he will have more energy... sounds like a bunch of hogwash to me

Well, we're not talking about a month, we're talking about 3 weeks, and the beginning of, presumably, 3 tough, long races in 5 weeks. Physical, and emotional fatigue can be cumulative, and every ounce of energy one saves can have a dramatic affect in the near future.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by raybo

Well, we're not talking about a month, we're talking about 3 weeks, and the beginning of, presumably, 3 tough, long races in 5 weeks. Physical, and emotional fatigue can be cumulative, and every ounce of energy one saves can have a dramatic affect in the near future.

until i can interview a horse and he tells me so im gonna treat it like im running a mile and a 1/4 then doing the same 3 weeks later... dont think it would bother me.... just a random thought

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by nads1420

until i can interview a horse and he tells me so im gonna treat it like im running a mile and a 1/4 then doing the same 3 weeks later... dont think it would bother me.... just a random thought

True. Need to get this info straight from the horse's mouth.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by nads1420

semi unrelated... maybe im ignorant but i dont believe when a jockey eases off a horse the last 100 yards that a month later he will have more energy... sounds like a bunch of hogwash to me

Does a NASCAR driver downshift a quarter mile from the finish line for a million dollar purse? No. So why would a jockey do it? I didn't see any easing of that horse. Maybe some cruise control at the very end. Horses simlply don't coast home a final 1/8th in 12.58 seconds. Don't get me wrong, that was a visually impressive performance which makes it hard to throw that horse from the top of tickets as the horse meets several Derby angles. Fractions, speed and stakes at 2, Raise A Native.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Does a NASCAR driver downshift a quarter mile from the finish line for a million dollar purse? No. So why would a jockey do it? I didn't see any easing of that horse. Maybe some cruise control at the very end. Horses simlply don't coast home a final 1/8th in 12.58 seconds. Don't get me wrong, that was a visually impressive performance which makes it hard to throw that horse from the top of tickets as the horse meets several Derby angles. Fractions, speed and stakes at 2, Raise A Native.

Storm Cat....

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Storm Cat....

Chip, could you post all the Storm Cat horses this year? Thanks in advance!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Chip, could you post all the Storm Cat horses this year? Thanks in advance!

It would probably be easier to post the non-Storm Cats.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I'll just copy-paste what I have from my notes.


Negative = stamina oriented
Positive = speed oriented
0 = balanced
* = 2YO Champion

Storm Cat blood






(B+I)-(C+S+P)
International Star +6
Dortmund -4
Carpe Diem -14
Frosted -1
Mubtaahij-IRE -2
Materiality -2
El Kabeir +4
Upstart +0
American Pharoah* +2
Itsaknockout -10
Firing Line +0
Danzig Moon +4
War Story -2
Tencendur +2
One Lucky Dane +2
Stanford +2
Ocho Ocho Ocho -2
Bolo -8
Far Right -4
Keen Ice -2
Madefromlucky +4
Frammento +2
Bold Conquest +2
Mr. Z +0
The Truth or Else +0
Divining Rod +0
Firespike -4
Tiznow R J -2
Toasting Master +2
Task Force Glory -6
Cross the Line +2
Another Lemon Drop -10



__________________________________________________ __

California Chrome +2
Orb +6 wet
I’ll Have Another -2
Animal Kingdom -4
Super Saver +0 wet
Mine That Bird +6 wet
Big Brown -14
Street Sense -4
Barbaro -10
Giacomo -1
Smarty Jones +4 wet
Funny Cide -6
War Emblem +4
Monarchos -10
Fusaichi Pegasus +8
Charismatic +10
Real Quiet +8
Silver Charm -14
Grindstone +4
Thunder Gulch +4
Go For Gin -16
Sea Hero -22
Lil E Tee +0

[menifee]

Why are you anti Storm Cat?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by menifee

Why are you anti Storm Cat?

Storm Cat in 44 Derby starts 0 wins, 2 place, 3 show. Even Todd Pletcher has a better record than that.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by menifee

Why are you anti Storm Cat?

44-0

But I think American Pharoah is the best shot to break that 'curse'.

[luisbe]

I think we're forgettign the most important here, KD speed pars.