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04-14-2015, 05:58 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 297
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Frosted
While we continue to decompress from AP's AR Derby ...
What's not to like about Frosted's Wood Memorial? He closed in a dominant manner into a dead honest pace (TimeformUS has a 100 for the 3/4 pace).
Per my calc's he had the fastest final 3/8 of any horse in the 9 furlong preps, and again, that was into an honest pace.
Maybe he breaks the Wood Memorial's jinx?
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04-14-2015, 06:07 PM
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#2
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by OCF
While we continue to decompress from AP's AR Derby ...
What's not to like about Frosted's Wood Memorial? He closed in a dominant manner into a dead honest pace (TimeformUS has a 100 for the 3/4 pace).
Per my calc's he had the fastest final 3/8 of any horse in the 9 furlong preps, and again, that was into an honest pace.
Maybe he breaks the Wood Memorial's jinx?
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More like a drought than a jinx.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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04-14-2015, 07:04 PM
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#3
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Mike Schultz
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 2,234
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by OCF
While we continue to decompress from AP's AR Derby ...
What's not to like about Frosted's Wood Memorial? He closed in a dominant manner into a dead honest pace (TimeformUS has a 100 for the 3/4 pace).
Per my calc's he had the fastest final 3/8 of any horse in the 9 furlong preps, and again, that was into an honest pace.
Maybe he breaks the Wood Memorial's jinx?
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I hope not, or I will be trashing all my tickets.
__________________
I attract money, I attract money...
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04-14-2015, 07:18 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 379
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to play devils advocate i will say this against him
Regardless of pace he only beat a horse that will be a 40-1 shot by 2 lengths for only his second win. The other was a maiden win which it took him 3 shots to break.... AP r Big dort puts 10 lengths on Tencendur
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04-14-2015, 07:26 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 297
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nads1420
to play devils advocate i will say this against him
Regardless of pace he only beat a horse that will be a 40-1 shot by 2 lengths for only his second win. The other was a maiden win which it took him 3 shots to break.... AP r Big dort puts 10 lengths on Tencendur
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Granted, but the prep season was such a chalkfest that horses that beat well-regarded horses, much less well-regarded fields, are few and far between.
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04-14-2015, 07:49 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 379
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he did get smoked by Upstart who is an average horse and couldnt close out a joke of a field back in November in the Remsen
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04-14-2015, 07:57 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nads1420
to play devils advocate i will say this against him
Regardless of pace he only beat a horse that will be a 40-1 shot by 2 lengths for only his second win. The other was a maiden win which it took him 3 shots to break.... AP r Big dort puts 10 lengths on Tencendur
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Frosted wasn't in the best of health, he had breathing problems, & still came in 4th by 4 lengths in the FOY vs Upstart.......he was gonna beat Upstart easily in that race if he didn't have the breathing problem & was on a dull & sandy deep track.
Good luck betting on AP & Dortmund.......
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04-14-2015, 07:58 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nads1420
he did get smoked by Upstart who is an average horse and couldnt close out a joke of a field back in November in the Remsen
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seems like there was an excuse for that..albeit there are excuses for quite a bit of stuff when you want there to be one. his hard fought win was a lil' unexpected for me. but does put credence in the excuse. but if you want to make a case for him in the derby, you really have to make a case for the warhorse of king charlemagne as well. and i don't think many will do that. i wouldn't use one w/o the other...trherefor i prolly won't use either
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04-14-2015, 08:02 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 297
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nads1420
he did get smoked by Upstart who is an average horse and couldnt close out a joke of a field back in November in the Remsen
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That's a different approach than we usually we see - toss the good race rather than the bad ones. 
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04-14-2015, 08:03 PM
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#10
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Frosted wasn't in the best of health, he had breathing problems, & still came in 4th by 4 lengths in the FOY vs Upstart.......he was gonna beat Upstart easily in that race if he didn't have the breathing problem & was on a dull & sandy deep track.
Good luck betting on AP & Dortmund.......
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we are all just assuming of this breathing problem tho right? In the fountain of youth its more obvious then the holy bull.... i guess... but who really knows.. again i do like Frosted but this time of year I like to play devils advocate to make people think... namely myself...lol
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04-14-2015, 08:17 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nads1420
we are all just assuming of this breathing problem tho right? In the fountain of youth its more obvious then the holy bull.... i guess... but who really knows.. again i do like Frosted but this time of year I like to play devils advocate to make people think... namely myself...lol
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The trainer suggested it was his breathing, so hence the throat surgery? Then he made sure to change other things like the jockey, shaved a bit off the blinkers so the horse has more of a view of the track.
Alysheba received the same surgery before the derby as well.......he went on to win the KD.
The Wood drought is somewhat of a concern tho......then again, all trends were made to be broken.
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04-14-2015, 08:51 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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Joel Rosario is a huge plus. When in doubt, bet on previous Derby winning jockeys.
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04-14-2015, 11:33 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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I would not place too much emphasis on what Frosted did as a presser, if he's going to go for his Wood Memorial strategy.
Sometimes horses are completely different with a change in tactics.
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04-15-2015, 12:15 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 217
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by OCF
While we continue to decompress from AP's AR Derby ...
What's not to like about Frosted's Wood Memorial? He closed in a dominant manner into a dead honest pace (TimeformUS has a 100 for the 3/4 pace).
Per my calc's he had the fastest final 3/8 of any horse in the 9 furlong preps, and again, that was into an honest pace.
Maybe he breaks the Wood Memorial's jinx?
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You can never discount a horse that wins a race. "Who did he beat?", the detractors will say. He beat who he was supposed to. Now, I wouldn't put too much credence into his final fractions as that race was run like a turf race - plod around for 3/4 and then gun for the last 1/4. I will discount the speed figure he earned in that race, but by how much is the question.
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04-15-2015, 02:07 AM
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#15
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Scum Bum!
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,889
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nads1420
he did get smoked by Upstart who is an average horse and couldnt close out a joke of a field back in November in the Remsen
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Started on the far outside and ran against a huge bias that day finishing second. 11 hole at 1 1/8 at AQU isn't the best post there.
Upstart is not an average horse. Migliore has called him his derby horse since January. 
Last edited by Tall One; 04-15-2015 at 02:09 AM.
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