comparing derby Speed Ratings

[Secondbest]

I only took the top numbers.Unless I missed one he wasn't in the top 7 or so figures.

[raybo]

Don't have stats to back it up, but big figures don't seem to relate to Derby wins, IMO. The Derby is unlike any other race a horse has run, or will ever run. That in itself would seem to mean that "traditional" data research and its comparisons don't count for too much regarding predicting the winner of the Derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by raybo

Don't have stats to back it up, but big figures don't seem to relate to Derby wins, IMO. The Derby is unlike any other race a horse has run, or will ever run. That in itself would seem to mean that "traditional" data research and its comparisons don't count for too much regarding predicting the winner of the Derby.

Ray, who have you zeroed in on for the KD?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Ray, who have you zeroed in on for the KD?

Won't know that until I get the data file, and see the tote board close to the start of the race.

Most probable winner? AP or Dortman, but that is based on what I have seen thus far, not on what I will have to decide when it's time to bet.

I'll add that post positions, start abilities/tendencies, running styles and those inside and outside each horse, actual early speed (not just running style and early speed points, but actual velocities), perceived prospective pace battles, perceived late ability versus the probable pace scenario, weather and condition of the surface, etc., all come into play for me.

[raybo]

My "probable winner" horses are based on my "Class" ratings and "Distance" ratings. I think those 2 things, more often than not, are the two most important qualities in the Derby (aside from current form of course).

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by Stoleitbreezing

Not at all, because it was the way he won it. The derby favorites like AP, Dortmund and Carpe Diem also haven't beat anyone of note which was why we didn't see any high mutuels during the prep races. Since we've not seen many of the stronger contenders go against one another during the preps I can only evaluate how they won.

Dortmund beat Firing Line twice who, himself, is a top contender.