Mubtaahij

[nads1420]

here is a mile and a quarter for Sir Fever at 2:02.82

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Vkr0dIS2rs


no clue about run off timing and things like that

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by nads1420

anyone know where i can find the pps from the UAE derby i wanna dig into the horses he beat

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/UAEDerby15.pdf

[f2tornado]

Looks like Mabtaahij has a double dose of Blue Larkspur via Green Dancer. Also Princequillo-x via Mill Princess. The horse also has the Raise A Native line on top which was red hot in the Derby prior to the last two years. He has an RPR of 118 which roughly compares to a Roman's PF of -81 which would be best of the bunch if a person deems Racing Post reliable. Hard to throw this one out. It's not like we have a large sample size of Dubai busts to go on.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Looks like Mabtaahij has a double dose of Blue Larkspur via Green Dancer. Also Princequillo-x via Mill Princess. The horse also has the Raise A Native line on top which was red hot in the Derby prior to the last two years. He has an RPR of 118 which roughly compares to a Roman's PF of -81 which would be best of the bunch if a person deems Racing Post reliable. Hard to throw this one out. It's not like we have a large sample size of Dubai busts to go on.

the deeper I dive the more I like this horse...

[nads1420]

Mubtaahij, who trained in Dubai over a Tapeta surface, will ship to Conor Murphy's training center near Churchill and train on Polytrack.

https://twitter.com/SteveHaskin/stat...12055816437760

good comments if you read the entire thread

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by nads1420

Mubtaahij, who trained in Dubai over a Tapeta surface, will ship to Conor Murphy's training center near Churchill and train on Polytrack.

https://twitter.com/SteveHaskin/stat...12055816437760

good comments if you read the entire thread

So he wants to go from polytrack to dirt? Hmm......

[BlueChip@DRF]

How do Golden Gate runners fare over the Churchill surface?

[nads1420]

It's nothing new for him, Mubtaahij trained on the Tapeta surface in Dubai and did pretty well running on the dirt.


think we can get 20-1 on him?

Gotta Figure at a minimum the following horses have lower odds....
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
Firing Line
Frosted
Materiality

[minethatbird08]

What keeps popping in my head was how close Declaration of War and Toast of New York were to winning the Breeders Cup Classic. Declaration of War just shipped in and was super close with no US dirt experience; although he took a decent amount of money so I guess it wasn't shocking. Then Toast of New York had a couple races in the US on turf and poly but no dirt experience and was right there at the end.

Mubtaahij
Pros:
- Getting the distance is less of a question mark than the rest of the field
- Won in an easy fashion
- Status on dirt better than previous UAE derby horses
- Right Trainer/Connections to pull this off

Cons
- How will he handle being shipped over?
- UAE Derby trends against him even getting top 4
- How good was the field he beat? More so than the US horses who have at least faced one of the other 20

There are probably others but I hope he was one work over CD just to get an idea of how he is handling the surface.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by nads1420

It's nothing new for him, Mubtaahij trained on the Tapeta surface in Dubai and did pretty well running on the dirt.


think we can get 20-1 on him?

Gotta Figure at a minimum the following horses have lower odds....
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
Firing Line
Frosted
Materiality

What are you talking about? I've seen several places that have KD odds up.......Mubtaahij is the 4th choice at 10-1........Materiality at 15-1.......Frosted at 18-1.....Firing Line at 17-1

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

What are you talking about? I've seen several places that have KD odds up.......Mubtaahij is the 4th choice at 10-1........Materiality at 15-1.......Frosted at 18-1.....Firing Line at 17-1

thats kinda shocking... 17-1 on Firing Line and im in on that

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by nads1420

thats kinda shocking... 17-1 on Firing Line and im in on that

It is shocking.......I think the Churchill odds will be something like this:

AP 7-2

Dortmund 4-1

Carpe Diem 6-1

Mubtaahij 12-1

Firing Line 15-1

Materiality 15-1

Frosted 15-1 or 20-1

Upstart 20-1

Danzig Moon 40-1

MadefromLucky 40-1

Far Right 30-1

El Kabeir 30-1

OchoOcho 50-1

Keen Ice 50-1

ItsKnockOut 50-1

Frammento 50-1

Mr Z 50-1

Tencendur 50-1

Stanford 50-1

War Story 50-1

OneLuckyDane 50-1

[BlueChip@DRF]

Someone is being ignored and ignored badly. A weird feeling that a bomb is going to find its way to the front and everybody will be like:

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Someone is being ignored and ignored badly. A weird feeling that a bomb is going to find its way to the front and everybody will be like:

who Upstart?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by nads1420

who Upstart?

I think he's talking about a 40-1 or 50-1