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04-14-2015, 12:58 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
From 1992 to Present:
Giacomo is the only winner who had won nothing else other than his maiden.
The rest of the winners have at least 2 wins on their record before running in the Derby.
Derby winners with 2 wins (including maiden) before The Derby: Animal Kingdom, Super Saver, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Grindstone
Danzig Moon, Tencendur, Mr. Z, Keen Ice, Frammento, Bold Conquest, The Truth Or Else,and Task Force Glory will attempt the same feat as Giacomo.
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Chip, in the back of my mind, got this feeling we may see another Giacomo this year.
Only ones that I like to pull it off are Danzig Moon & Frammento.......
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04-14-2015, 01:04 AM
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#17
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Chip, in the back of my mind, got this feeling we may see another Giacomo this year.
Only ones that I like to pull it off are Danzig Moon & Frammento.......
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Strong front runners this year. No more Giacomo or MTB odds. We might see a "curse" broken this year: Apollo, Storm Cat, Dubai import, a winning ticket I get to cash in….
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04-14-2015, 01:05 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
Didn't they copy the Churchill surface on the new Meydan track?
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Geometrically comparing Meydan Racecourse with Churchill Downs, Meydan have a better layout with larger turns , longer straight-aways , and a more generous banking angle on the turns, but its surface is too "Sandy" and doesn't hold moisture well.
Therefore take your pick if you want good surface resistance go with Churchill and if you want less side-force resistance go with Meydan.
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04-14-2015, 01:11 AM
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#19
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Cratos
Geometrically comparing Meydan Racecourse with Churchill Downs, Meydan have a better layout with larger turns , longer straight-aways , and a more generous banking angle on the turns, but its surface is too "Sandy" and doesn't hold moisture well.
Therefore take your pick if you want good surface resistance go with Churchill and if you want less side-force resistance go with Meydan.
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Speaking of which, what if the track comes up "cuppy" at race time?
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04-14-2015, 01:17 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,601
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Taxi, what do you like about Mubtaahij that has you settled on playing him on top if you don't mind me asking?
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I forgot to mention in message 15 that Mubtaahij failed to change leads in the stretch of his UAE tour de force.
If jockey Soumillon can get him to switch leads when he's supposed to it can only help.
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04-14-2015, 01:26 AM
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#21
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by taxicab
I forgot to mention in message 15 that Mubtaahij failed to change leads in the stretch of his UAE tour de force.
If jockey Soumillon can get him to switch leads when he's supposed to it can only help.
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Only the U.S. cares about lead switches and trains them that way. Everywhere else they don't care as long as the horse runs fast. Plus, they run on different turns (both left and right) and non-level courses.
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04-14-2015, 01:53 AM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,601
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
Only the U.S. cares about lead switches and trains them that way. Everywhere else they don't care as long as the horse runs fast. Plus, they run on different turns (both left and right) and non-level courses.
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Proper lead changes are all about balance.
A well balanced horse is a better horse( have you ever heard Mike Smith talk about the balance Shared Belief has ? .......he says SB has the best balance of any horse that he has ever ridden).
Here's an exert from an article discussing lead changes:
Why is lead switching critical ? A horse will get very tired if it remains on one lead for too long. It is also important for a rider to note if a horse is switching normally, a little late or a little early or too often. A change in behavior regarding lead switching is a signal that something is not well with the horse.
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04-14-2015, 06:17 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,956
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Wasn't his last 2 races @ 1 3/16? THE Bris PP's @ Kentucky Derby .com show them @ 1 1/8
I'm pretty sure the UAE Derby was 1 3/16 miles
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04-14-2015, 07:32 AM
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#24
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,086
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by taxicab
He absolutely took apart a strong field.....and made it look easy.
He's royally bred to get the trip (his sire Dubawi is on a massive heater).
He hails from a barn (Mike deKock) that has had success on multiple continents in many top races.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=677rgOnAbOw |
I kind of like him too. For the same reasons. That field had a couple of really good horses, this trainer is the kind that wins where ever he goes. I have a feeling that race was harder than many of these preps in the US this year. People are saying that was a weak field what about some of our preps? It seems like there was one good horse at each region with the exception of Florida. I don't really consider Far Right or Mr. Z to be very good and the Wood, Blue Grass and SA Derby were sort of "walk overs" too with the injuries that came up. One thing I've learned over the years, this thing of "that has not happened in ? years." Always eventually gets broken.
Last edited by burnsy; 04-14-2015 at 07:35 AM.
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04-14-2015, 07:41 AM
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#25
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
I wish no injury on any horse, but I do wish they would scratch Mubtaahij because he brings more uncertainty than the other horses........& he was bet down from 30-1 to 8-1 in Futures Pool 4.......& IMO, that money wasn't public money.
So he has my head spinning......I will have him underneath my top horse, & I'm debating if I should key him on top with my top horse. I like to bet only 1 horse on top always, with several for 2nd & 3rd.......but with Mubtaahij, I may have to place him on top as well.
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is it safe to say he is the ultimate derby wildcard this millenium? he can finish first and he can finish dead last... we just dont know enough about him
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04-14-2015, 08:59 AM
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#26
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Mubtaahij
In keeping with the spirit of the thread….
Maiden Win @ 8.0F - 1st start on dirt; he had two prior starts on turf, a surface he didn't seem to care much about
2000 Guineas Trial @ 7.0F - finished 1st
2000 Guineas al Tayer (G3) @ 8.0F - finished a game 2nd to Maftool
Al Bastakiya (G2) @ 9.5F - finished 1st
UAE Derby (G2) @ 9.5F - finished 1st
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Last edited by BlueChip@DRF; 04-14-2015 at 09:01 AM.
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04-14-2015, 09:07 AM
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#27
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 379
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UAE Derby winners in the Kentucky Derby and how they finished
2000 China Visit 6th
2001 Express Tour 8th
2002 Essence Of Dubai 9th
2009 Regal Ransom 8th
So it isnt like they are finishing 18th, 19th, and 20th and Mubtaahij is supposed to be the best one
There was also a tweet I posted somewhere on here yesterday that stated anytime Mike de Kock has shipped a horse into the USA he has finished 1st or 2nd so de Kock should not be under estimated
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04-14-2015, 09:21 AM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,178
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nads1420
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And this being his first on the dirt here.
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04-14-2015, 09:21 AM
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#29
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 379
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Sir Fever winning the Uruguay Triple Crown - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcbW6Ib3JBg
Runs 2500 meters in 2:37 which is 1.55 miles
dont know if that helps anything at all
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04-14-2015, 09:50 AM
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#30
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nads1420
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Oh crap! That camera angle in the stretch is like Kentucky Downs. Just when I thought it was finished, there was a furlong left to go.
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