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04-12-2015, 12:56 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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A rating system for Trainers @AQU
Took a try at putting a number on trainers as a measure of their success as an alternative to just using their earnings.
I am giving 5 points for a win, 4 points for a place and 3 points for a show finish similar to a fantasy style point system. I am calling this Points In The Money.
Also brought in the win, place and show money accumulated for all starts and divided that number by the total cost of a $2 win, place and show wager for each start calling this the Return Per Dollar and I am giving each trainer 1 point for every percentage point over $1.
So any trainer with a return of $12 based on a $2 win, place and show wager would get 100 points since it's a return of 100% on $6.
The results are pretty interesting among those with 4 or more starts since April 1, 2015.
D Schettino, L Rice and D Jacobson are at the top of the list on points but K P McLauglin is 23rd on the list with just 360 points he is only giving you an 18% return per dollar across the board.
 
I will be following L Rice and D Jacobson today and for the remainder of the season!!
I will also be following D Jacobson in claiming races I think his point totals will begin to decline as he will be bet more heavily giving less of a return per dollar.
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04-12-2015, 01:10 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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D Jacobson has these 4 Claimers today let's see what happens!!
1st race #6 Percussion (KY) Claiming One Mile D Jacobson
3rd race #2 Subtle Humor (FL) Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D Jacobson
3rd race #6 Ridingwiththedevil Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D Jacobson
7th race #2 Possilicious (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs D Jacobson
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04-12-2015, 01:56 PM
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#3
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,915
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I like your approach but prefer different weights. I use 6-3-1.
7-3-1 or 7-4-1 might be better.
Dave
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04-12-2015, 05:04 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,567
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I like your approach but prefer different weights. I use 6-3-1.
7-3-1 or 7-4-1 might be better.
Dave
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I prefer 5-2-1
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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04-12-2015, 11:15 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,915
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LOL - I raise...
How about 7-2-1?
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04-12-2015, 11:58 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,567
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
LOL - I raise...
How about 7-2-1?
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Okay.
6-2-1 it is. 
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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04-13-2015, 04:03 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,764
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TheOracle
Took a try at putting a number on trainers as a measure of their success as an alternative to just using their earnings.
I am giving 5 points for a win, 4 points for a place and 3 points for a show finish similar to a fantasy style point system. I am calling this Points In The Money.
Also brought in the win, place and show money accumulated for all starts and divided that number by the total cost of a $2 win, place and show wager for each start calling this the Return Per Dollar and I am giving each trainer 1 point for every percentage point over $1.
So any trainer with a return of $12 based on a $2 win, place and show wager would get 100 points since it's a return of 100% on $6.
The results are pretty interesting among those with 4 or more starts since April 1, 2015.
D Schettino, L Rice and D Jacobson are at the top of the list on points but K P McLauglin is 23rd on the list with just 360 points he is only giving you an 18% return per dollar across the board.
I will be following L Rice and D Jacobson today and for the remainder of the season!!
I will also be following D Jacobson in claiming races I think his point totals will begin to decline as he will be bet more heavily giving less of a return per dollar. |
i will be following Schettino this year in 2 year old New York breds especially those that are owned by Rosenthol, they look like rocket ships to me and i think they are going to start landing in New York sometime this week.
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04-13-2015, 05:50 AM
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#8
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Registered Loser
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 2,633
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I don't know about you, but I'd rather have the guy you have rated on the bottom training my horses than some of the 5% trainers you have near the top, Milliron, Henry,Parker? 
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04-13-2015, 09:33 AM
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#9
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Irrationally exuberant
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 740
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I think this is a post that would relate to betting and making money rather than the quality of the trainer....
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04-13-2015, 10:01 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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I used to use harness' UDR formula which is 9-5-3. After observation, agree with Quirin and use 6-3-1.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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04-13-2015, 01:03 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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in my rating system for trainers or jockeys, I use average odds per start. You must ask "what are they up against" going into the race? You must keep your own records as I have never seen this in any of the rankings.
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04-13-2015, 11:59 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
i will be following Schettino this year in 2 year old New York breds especially those that are owned by Rosenthol, they look like rocket ships to me and i think they are going to start landing in New York sometime this week.
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Hey Lambo you might be on to something 2 of Schettino's last 3 Maiden races have had $20+ win prices but I don't know how long he can keep this up!!
Those 2 big prices pushed him up to the top in my rankings with trainers having 4 starts or better at Aqueduct this April.
Let's see what his Maidens do for the remainder of the season!!!
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04-14-2015, 09:30 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Interesting to note, that for D Jacobson, 7 of his last 8 wins have come in Sprint races for the month of April at Aqueduct.
His Morning Line favorites have all won their Sprint races with the exception of Subtle Humor on April 12th. You really have to play his horses to win since their average win price is around $5.50. It just doesn't make sense to wager for place and show with his horses.
Also, when his horses win, the place and show prices for other horses decline significantly so you are compelled to play those horses to win and hope that his horses lose if you bet against them in Sprint races with this current trend.
However, despite all of that evidence I will try to beat him with J A Jerkens and J T Ryerson's horses #5 Spark and #6 Town Kitty respectively.
He has a horse entered in the 3rd race tomorrow #3 Room for Me. He is listed at 3-5 in the Morning Line.
Let's see what happens!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 04-14-2015 at 09:32 PM.
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04-14-2015, 11:32 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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The latest rankings as of April 12th 2015 at Aqueduct for trainers with 4 or more starts is quite interesting.
I would think that J A Jerkens and J T Ryerson would be in the top 10 but their returns have been in the negative. I am hopeful that they will emerge very quickly since there are only 2 weeks left in the Aqueduct season!!!
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04-18-2015, 12:56 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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L Rice has taken over the top spot for Trainers with the highest Return Per Dollar across the board!! D Schettino's horses have been struggling lately.
Right now she is giving you a solid 71% return per $2 wager to win, place and show.
I didn't think Beautiful Brown was going to hit the board today on the Turf but she did finishing 2nd and paying $11.90 across the board!!
She also has a streak of 5 in a row across the board since April 12th however, that will probably get snapped tomorrow as she has 4 entered for Saturday.
She has these for tomorrow
race 2
#4 La Verdad
race 7
#2 Jackie Black
race 8
#4 Mischieviously
#6 Erik the Red
Let's see what happens!!!
Interesting to note D Jacobson fell off the list of highest returns very quickly!!
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