American Pharoah/Dortmund

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by OCF

Which way do you want it with Sunny's Halo?

AP is either the next Sunny's Halo the pull off the Rebel-Ark-KY Derby trifecta or he's not. His Brisnet LP figure is mildly disconcerting. His Rebel and Ark EP and LP numbers essentially flip flopped. Can he achieve a high number in both? Such a nice looking effortless stride but can this horse improve? I'm gonna be using on top with others but not with my usual authority.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

AP is either the next Sunny's Halo the pull off the Rebel-Ark-KY Derby trifecta or he's not. His Brisnet LP figure is mildly disconcerting. His Rebel and Ark EP and LP numbers essentially flip flopped. Can he achieve a high number in both? Such a nice looking effortless stride but can this horse improve? I'm gonna be using on top with others but not with my usual authority.

What more did you want to see out of him? Both of his prep races he was underwraps in the lane. AP was still within himself to draw away by several lengths against each field with no encouragement so the late LP figure you're looking for won't be as high.

I went into the race hoping for two things. See him rate off the pace. Which he did. Run a fast final time for the distance. Which he also did.

Did AP beat much? No, but then again who did Dortmund beat other then Firing line? Who did International Star, Firing line at Sunland, Frosted in the Wood, Materiality in the FLA Derby other then Upstart actually beat? Lots of questions about competition. I'm looking at the horse. To me his last race geared down I have a lot of confidence he'll get the derby distance and that his brilliance is at the very least worthy of my tris and supers.

Can this horse improve? Does he really need to? His last race in the Ark Derby was one of the best preps this year. That alone is enough for me. To answer your question. I believe we do see him improve his 3rd start back from the injury. I believe this because he's not been asked of yet and there is every indication he's got more left which is scary thought.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Stoleitbreezing

What more did you want to see out of him?

Nothing. He passed my eye test and the fractions were good. I'm simply left wondering about his Brisnet LP figure which only Mine That Bird had lower in past 15 years to still win the Derby. I know the horse was not exactly urged but makes me wonder if my eyes are deceiving. In the Ark he had nice EP figures and a dull LP number despite decent fractions. In the Rebel and Front Runner he had dull EP figures and solid LP figures (see link). Maybe I'm thinking too hard, maybe not. Maybe the Bris figure is not correct. The colt has a couple other oddball Derby angles against him so it's not like I'm grabbing air here. He's got the dreaded Storm Cat underneath. His DamSire AWD is weak. He'd be the first Rebel-Ark-Derby winner since 1983. I do plan on using the horse on top and bottom of tickets among others but am simply not gonna bet heavy this year. None of the contenders meet my typical angles.

http://static.kentuckyderby.com/site...roah5044_1.pdf

[OCF]

Was AP really more impressive than Dortmund or did he just happen to be the last one we saw?

Yeah, I know his SA Derby LP figure wasn't that good, but he was ahead by 4 lengths at the top of the stretch. Why wear the horse out when a second consecutive stretchout is ahead in 4 weeks?

Like the extra week of rest.

Love the win on the CD dirt strip back in November. That takes care of one nagging question that still is there for most of the other horses. You can bet Baffert didn't ship him back there just to see if he could steal a purse.

He's been battled tested and came out ahead - Firing Line is no slouch to say the least. Can that be said about AP?

He looks flexible - can win on the lead or from just off it. All he's ever done is WIN.

I kinda hope AP keeps getting all the love because I'm leaning Dortmund's way.

http://static.kentuckyderby.com/site...mund5044_1.pdf

[boys at tosconova]

since we're talking about oddball angles.

lets not forget it’s the color of the jockey's silks that determines where they finish. the silliest horse name merits consideration as well. ocho x3 is a strong across the board play.

stupidest names never run well. mubtaahiji wins that honor bringing it w/ the double whammy of worst trainers name "de kock" training the horse

[Viruss]

After looking at his E-2 pace rating, with it being 14 points better then any
previous E-2 rating he had. I feel he may bounce so he is out for me.


Earl J

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by OCF

Was AP really more impressive than Dortmund or did he just happen to be the last one we saw?

Yeah, I know his SA Derby LP figure wasn't that good, but he was ahead by 4 lengths at the top of the stretch. Why wear the horse out when a second consecutive stretchout is ahead in 4 weeks?

Like the extra week of rest.

Love the win on the CD dirt strip back in November. That takes care of one nagging question that still is there for most of the other horses. You can bet Baffert didn't ship him back there just to see if he could steal a purse.

He's been battled tested and came out ahead - Firing Line is no slouch to say the least. Can that be said about AP?

He looks flexible - can win on the lead or from just off it. All he's ever done is WIN.

I kinda hope AP keeps getting all the love because I'm leaning Dortmund's way.

http://static.kentuckyderby.com/site...mund5044_1.pdf

I picked Dortmund at the beginning of the year and he hasn't done anything to change my mind.

If AP has an edge it would be his demonstrated off-track ability which could be a plus at Churchill Downs this time of year.

Also in comparing AP and Dortmund last races at Oaklawn and Santa Anita they should be compared using the total environmental bias which would be inclusive of the DF, the SWF, the SF, and the track turn side force.

What is interesting is that Oaklawn, Santa Anita, and CD are all one mile ovals with different geometric configurations which might add or substract from each horse's performance.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by OCF

Was AP really more impressive than Dortmund or did he just happen to be the last one we saw?

thats true. human nature... funny how that happens like when Mubtaahij was bet down to 8-1 on the 4th futures pool after the UAE derby

[OCF]

Originally Posted by Viruss

After looking at his E-2 pace rating, with it being 14 points better then any
previous E-2 rating he had. I feel he may bounce so he is out for me.


Earl J

Interesting, this is a new one on me. Is the theory that such a horse peaked?

[Viruss]

I think you can regress after a runner runs to fast an early pace. if memory serves me right War Emblems Preakness win (early pace) is a good example.

Earl J

[maddog42]

The odds that neither Dortmund or AP are in the money are huge, at least 12-1.

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by maddog42

The odds that neither Dortmund or AP are in the money are huge, at least 12-1.

I predict that they will both wear each other out and falter near the 3/16th pole.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by wisconsin

I predict that they will both wear each other out and falter near the 3/16th pole.

No way...Baffert is smarter than that. Send Dortmund and stalk with AP.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

No way...Baffert is smarter than that. Send Dortmund and stalk with AP.

Not the same owners, so you can't say he will send one & stalk with the other.......if there's a horse to send to the front, its Mr Z......I'm sure the Zayats will tell Lukas they want Mr Z out there in front, if not, like 5 to 7 horses will be forwardly placed going around the 1st turn looking to get position......

IMO, its gonna be a mess coming around the last turn at the top of the stretch.......

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

No way...Baffert is smarter than that. Send Dortmund and stalk with AP.

These horses will; be facing pressure that they have never seen before and neither on will be able to get away despite the instructions.