American Pharoah/Dortmund

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by nads1420

did those horses have the perceived level of top tier horses thats this derby does?

Every Derby does before it is ran.

[nads1420]

thats not true

2011 Nehro and Dialed In

2012 Bodemeister and Union Rags

2009 Pioneerof the nile & Friesen Fire



think these 2 are much better right now then they were at the same time

[nads1420]

https://twitter.com/bwaynelukas/stat...46798826442752

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I'm still debating which one I will stick in my tris & supers.......IMO, both will not come in the money, if not both like you stated.

There's a time to play favs & a time not to.......was on Chrome, Big Brown & Smarty Jones pretty big, but I just feel these favs this year won't win the KD.

I could be wrong tho, that's what makes the KD so much fun......I like Firing Line more than Dortmund, & with that said, I think Dortmund places & AP doesnt., but my thinking could change once I see the post positions.......what if AP gets post #1, or post #20?

I know Baffert is very high on AP, & Zayat thinks he's the best he's ever had.......

The next 3 weeks, you will see a ton of hype on AP & Dortmund, don't let it change your mind if you like someone else.

Zayat is due for a KD win, but so are several other owners like the Ramsey's, etc......

There is the Pick-4... You can debate and worry only about the Win spot rather than guessing who is going to be 2nd best that day.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

There is the Pick-4... You can debate and worry only about the Win spot rather than guessing who is going to be 2nd best that day.

Its hard enough to pick 1 winner in 1 race, now you want me to pick 4 winners in 4 different races? I only focus on the triple crown races.........plus the payout is astronomical in the KD, compared to the other races.

The money invested in the KD is definitely worth risk vs reward.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by nads1420

did you let California Chrome prove you wrong last year? Iv noticed some horse players tend to let horses like Smarty Jones, Big Brown, & California Chrome "prove them wrong" over and over but dont ever learn their lesson. Im not saying these horses are the lock the CC was because not only was he a beast but his competition left something to be desired... but I think you almost gotta have a ticket with one of them on the top of a exotic.

After all, there was what, 30 years of losing favorites in the Derby? Nothing wrong with taking a stand against the favorites. Just because a few have won in recent years doesn't reverse the earlier results.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Its hard enough to pick 1 winner in 1 race, now you want me to pick 4 winners in 4 different races? I only focus on the triple crown races.........plus the payout is astronomical in the KD, compared to the other races.

The money invested in the KD is definitely worth risk vs reward.

Then it all starts getting the first two in order right.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Current overseas bookmaker odds:

AP 11/4
Dort 9/2

http://www.paddypower.com/racing/fut...kentucky-derby

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Current overseas bookmaker odds:

AP 11/4
Dort 9/2

http://www.paddypower.com/racing/fut...kentucky-derby

And there is a 20 out there for Frosted, wow, better BRIS LP / SR then both AP and Dort, just much less hype.

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Shhhhh, you can hit a year like that and it makes up for years of betting ....and years of losing the derby. Of course, if you never take a chance you and I both know you will never be telling that "wagering" story. Or signing for it.... We agree in both threads. I like the way you bet.

Getting back to the subject at hand. As of right now Dortmund is the one that I most think won't make the distance.......American Pharaoh I would probably include on some tickets.

I like your thinking. I don't think it will happen, but if neither of these horses wins, then there will be HUGE exotics. I will probably key both of these horses underneath a few horses. Maybe 5 or 6. Favorites are not the horses to put on top in the derby.

[OCF]

Any opinions on the effect of (only?) 21 days rest for American Pharoah between the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby?

I've gotta wonder if Baffert and Espinoza were taking that into account when he was eased near the finish and also pulled up relatively quickly on the gallop-out.

Winners of the AD haven't done well in the KD recently (1 win in 30 years), maybe the 21 day rest had something to do with it.

The same was true of the Blue Grass Derby and this year the BGD changed from 21 days out to 28 days out. The BGD had been 21 days out for 26 years.

[f2tornado]

Three other horses finished second in Ark Derby in last 30 years then came back to win the Roses: Super Saver, Grindstone, and Lil E Tee. Go back another couple years and Sunny's Halo won both. That's a Derby winner about once every six years. Perhaps more interesting, of all horses running in the Rebel only two have won the Derby; Sunny's Halo and Smarty Jones.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

For now, I would most likely box AP, Danzig Moon, Frosted, and Mubtaahij then wheel AP over some stuff for the tri and super. I'm tossing Dortmund. Maybe use him on bottom of tri and/or super.

I'm tossing Dortmund as well, and using AP with Frosted and International Star in my tris and supers. I think its silly to throw AP out just because he won't be +10-1 on derby day. If you hit the tri or the super in the derby you'll get paid off cause its the DERBY. There will be plenty of dead money to inflate exotics. don't just throw the best horse off your tickets cause of the odds. He won't be 1-9 derby day. CC was 5/2 in the derby last year as the stone favorite without another horse battling for favoritism, you really think AP will be lower or that low with Carpe and Dortmund in the field? I think not.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Three other horses finished second in Ark Derby in last 30 years then came back to win the Roses: Super Saver, Grindstone, and Lil E Tee. Go back another couple years and Sunny's Halo won both. That's a Derby winner about once every six years. Perhaps more interesting, of all horses running in the Rebel only two have won the Derby; Sunny's Halo and Smarty Jones.

Super Saver, Grindstone and Lil E Tee all finished second by a neck.

Perhaps the AD winners tend to be peaking in the AD and the 2nd place finishers tend to be ascending and benefit later from the tough race?

It's hard for me to believe that one extra or one less week's rest is meaningless.

Which way do you want it with Sunny's Halo?

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by Stoleitbreezing

I'm tossing Dortmund as well, and using AP with Frosted and International Star in my tris and supers. I think its silly to throw AP out just because he won't be +10-1 on derby day. If you hit the tri or the super in the derby you'll get paid off cause its the DERBY. There will be plenty of dead money to inflate exotics. don't just throw the best horse off your tickets cause of the odds. He won't be 1-9 derby day. CC was 5/2 in the derby last year as the stone favorite without another horse battling for favoritism, you really think AP will be lower or that low with Carpe and Dortmund in the field? I think not.

Im guess AP goes off 4 or 5-1