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04-10-2015, 10:58 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 733
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Valuist
If he goes wire to wire by 10 lengths after a 48 3/5 and 1:13 type trip, he will get nothing out of the race.
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Nothing except $600,000.
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04-10-2015, 11:16 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 217
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Valuist
If American Pharoh wants to win the KY Derby, a hard race here would do him good. In terms of prepping, the harder, the better. Horses who win big after getting loose thru soft fractions become terrible bets at Churchill. If he goes wire to wire by 10 lengths after a 48 3/5 and 1:13 type trip, he will get nothing out of the race.
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War Emblem says "hello".
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04-10-2015, 11:33 PM
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#33
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,132
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AP much the best,that being said would anyone be surprise if Lukas is the last one laughing 
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04-10-2015, 11:43 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kash$
AP much the best,that being said would anyone be surprise if Lukas is the last one laughing |
Lukas definitely has peaked my curiousity as to how Mr Z is gonna run.......I would bet 1k to win $300 that Mr Z doesn't win this race.
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04-11-2015, 12:23 AM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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WE ran bris pace numbers of 95-105-107 in his prep (Ill Derby) and ran a 94-112-105 in the Derby.
Not exactly soft, and certainly more early pace then what AP has showed (82-85-109 in Rebel, 87-86-108 in Frontrunner)
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04-11-2015, 02:05 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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i don't think they can't rate the luvy. i don't expect the jock to control the shots..he's just along for the ride
only question is how early AP wants the lead.
can't really expect lukas to fight really hard. especially after last race.
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04-11-2015, 05:08 PM
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#37
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
i don't think they can't rate the luvy. i don't expect the jock to control the shots..he's just along for the ride
only question is how early AP wants the lead.
can't really expect lukas to fight really hard. especially after last race. |
No way that jockey weighs the required weight.
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04-11-2015, 06:32 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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What's interesting is Baffert has only won the Arkansas derby once, & Pletcher twice.
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04-11-2015, 06:53 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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getting 40 bux for a 6/3 exacta isn't that bad...do i think the 3 will finish 2nd.....no..but at least you know where the horse will be , and can hope for a moderate pace..that said..he can prolly lose by 30 and stop on a dime at the top of the lane if pushed
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04-11-2015, 07:04 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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$25/26 exacta w/ bold conquest finishing second if there's any value in exacta's that has to be it. doesn't look like that much separation among the figure horses for 2nd except for the price
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04-11-2015, 07:18 PM
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#41
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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I know horses' names get reused on a regular basis, but I seem to recall a Bold Conquest in the 1980s who stood in Illinois or Arkansas, and sired quite a few good mudders. Guess he wasn't good enough to have his name reserved. But I'll toss the  just on principle, and play the  dog cheap with the  and  .
Unless he wins with some authority, I can't see playing Pharoah on Derby Day with just two preps under his belt this year.....
__________________
Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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04-11-2015, 07:18 PM
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#42
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
$25/26 exacta w/ bold conquest finishing second if there's any value in exacta's that has to be it. doesn't look like that much separation among the figure horses for 2nd except for the price
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Thinking the same thing, only with The Truth Or Else.
Lot of sentimental money on Far Right, and lot of money on a Pletcher 2nd string.
Can't really bet this race IMO.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-11-2015, 07:22 PM
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#43
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Oh damn... Sorry about that, SAM.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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04-11-2015, 07:22 PM
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#44
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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I think we have found our Derby favorite.
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04-11-2015, 07:23 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,656
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Lord, he wins for fun!! Effortless paid workout.
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