KY Derby futures - Pool 4 closing

[horses4courses]

What a joke this futures pool is.

Top underlay - Mubtaahij @ 9-1
The horse has to be at least 15-1 on Derby Day.

Top overlay - nothing.
There isn't a horse in there at odds that you won't find on the day.
Add this to the fact that if your horse scratches, you lose.

Naturally, who ever steps up impressively next week will shorten,
but you would make more money betting them next week, then
parlaying it on May 2nd.

It's just a terrible sucker bet.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Notice how they added that extra pool by starting REALLY early back in November. A true sucker bet.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Notice how they added that extra pool by starting REALLY early back in November. A true sucker bet.

Smart marketing, though.

It's a win-win for them, as they publicize
the race before Xmas, and do so at a profit.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Bastards.

[SecretAgentMan]

Mubtaahij closed 8-1 from the open # of 30-1.......that's crazy. Mubtaahij will be 15-1 to 20-1 on derby day.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Mubtaahij closed 8-1 from the open # of 30-1.......that's crazy. Mubtaahij will be 15-1 to 20-1 on derby day.

love getting Carpe Diem at 10-1 though as a bi product of Mubtaahij taking so much money... Don't get me wrong I was totally impressed with Mubtaahij but like you said will get better odds derby day.

[davew]

here is Churchill Downs take on it

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/20...l-betting-mubt


I am not sure how anyone could say that none of these pool closings will be higher than on Derby day - I feel American Pharoah, Dortmund and Firing Line will all have lower odds on Derby day (if they run).

[f2tornado]

Mildly frustrated with folks calling the wager a gimmick. It is a value play. It is also a defensive play. You could have landed Chrome last year here at 9-1. The exacta with the "all others" paid something like $350. All others covers all the Commanding Curves and Golden Souls. Goofy stuff you'd probably play light if at all on Derby day. That Future wager exacta is your saver bet. All that said, I agree it's not wise to play a horse at less than around 10-1 here. You rarely see Derby post time favorites at short odds and are even less likely this year given the depth of talent. No use burying your money for a month for minimal risk-reward when things can change. Someone suggested a parlay of final prep and Derby but that's not worth it if you're only gonna get 1/5 on a horse like American Pharoah. Further, there's no shortage of horses not winning the final prep going on to win the Roses.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by davew

here is Churchill Downs take on it

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/20...l-betting-mubt


I am not sure how anyone could say that none of these pool closings will be higher than on Derby day - I feel American Pharoah, Dortmund and Firing Line will all have lower odds on Derby day (if they run).

Dave, if AP, Carpe, & Dortmund all win, there will be 5 horses on derby day with around the same odds IMO......AP at 9-2, Dortmund 5-1, Carpe 6-1, Firing Line 8-1 or higher, Materiality 10-1 or higher......there won't be a clear cut fav like we had last year.

As for future pool wagering, there are advantages in betting early before Jan.......Funny Cide paid out huge, like 99-1 odds in pool 1 or 2, can't remember.....future pool 4 is a money burner IMO.......

[ten2oneormore]

Have to think if Bold Conquest makes the field his 91-1 future price will represent a huge overlay to his odds on derby day.

He is right on the bubble now with points but would lock up a spot just hitting the superfecta in the Arkansas Derby.

[overthehill]

If AP wins decisively, I will find it difficult to believe he will not be the clear favorite in the Derby. I would say at least 1 1/2 points shorter than the next contender. AP looks like he was a cut above the others as a two year old. Not saying he will win just that I dont see anyone else as the favorite if he wins next decisively. Looks to me like the field is plenty deep, and lots of horses could win.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Mildly frustrated with folks calling the wager a gimmick. It is a value play. It is also a defensive play.

i'm sorry. but this has to be done



and this has to be done as well

takei on mubtaahij @ 9-1 in derby

[f2tornado]

Agree on Mubtaahij. You do have to play it smart.

[horses4courses]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-rac...y-derby/winner

UK books have the UAE Derby winner listed mostly @ 12-1 for Churchill.
That's a reasonable price, but I doubt they will get hammered on it.

I just don't see the public getting behind this horse on Derby Day.
That trial has been so weak over the years and, while he was
visually impressive, I figure he was blowing by some average horses.

15-1 can easily be had on Derby Day,
unless his workouts appear tremendous.
Then, the wiseguys might jump in a bit.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Mildly frustrated with folks calling the wager a gimmick. It is a value play. It is also a defensive play. You could have landed Chrome last year here at 9-1. The exacta with the "all others" paid something like $350. All others covers all the Commanding Curves and Golden Souls. Goofy stuff you'd probably play light if at all on Derby day. That Future wager exacta is your saver bet. All that said, I agree it's not wise to play a horse at less than around 10-1 here. You rarely see Derby post time favorites at short odds and are even less likely this year given the depth of talent. No use burying your money for a month for minimal risk-reward when things can change. Someone suggested a parlay of final prep and Derby but that's not worth it if you're only gonna get 1/5 on a horse like American Pharoah. Further, there's no shortage of horses not winning the final prep going on to win the Roses.

I made good money last year wheeling the "field" over "all" in FB #1.
$115 outlay won me over $300 profit, or near 3-1 on my money.
I held off this year thinking the exacta payoffs were light,
and it just didn't feel right. Right now, I'm glad I stayed out.

No exacta is higher than $170 for $2 - that's close to half
compared to the previous year. Something tells me it will
be a very low ROI on that wager this year, if it wins at all.
Too many people jumped on it this time.

You can get lucky and hit a bomb betting early.
That's the fun part of the wager.
Do the rewards exceed the risk factor?
Hardly, and only for a few lucky bettors.

As far as the final prep to Derby parlay goes,
it was said mostly in jest.
At the same time, if your horse is 3-5, or better,
for that final prep and he wins, your likely to do
at least as well by taking your winnings and original
stake and letting it ride on the roses.

You should get back at least what was on offer for FB #4,
plus you eliminate losing your bet if the horse gets hurt
before the race.

This year my futures flyer is on Frammento
I threw a whole $30 on him @ 100-1
Nick Zito trainee goes in the Blue Grass, I think.
He ran a non-threatening 3rd in the Fountain of Youth,
but is thought to be improving at the right time.

Chances are he is no where near good enough.
At 100-1, though, I'm willing to take a chance.