my take on the Louisiana Derby - Page 2 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

boys at tosconova · 03-28-2015, 01:06 AM

int star doesn't come off the rail. you're not going to keep winning doing that

Stoleitbreezing · 03-28-2015, 08:05 AM

He doesn't need to come up the rail to win. He can make a move inside and outside of horses it won't matter.

PaceMasterT · 03-28-2015, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stoleitbreezing

Stanford was trounced in an overnight stakes race in last when routing for the first time. Comment reads he was "veering" out in the lane, which is usually an indication of tiring. Miler at best, who has yet to hit the board against graded foes. Rail screams send job and probably fades after 5 or 6 furlongs.

Watch the replay. Stanford was "veering" out of the first turn because he is green. Being on the lead is not where he wants to be, so he got bored, lost focus, started looking at something in the infield and floated out coming out of the first turn. Not because he was tiring.

Standford has the best chance of any of these to improve dramatically. Second time going a route and looks like there are enough early runners for him to sit in his desired tracking position just off the front pack. Hopefully, the jock/trainer don't try to gun him to the lead because of the 1 post position.

boys at tosconova · 03-28-2015, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stoleitbreezing

He doesn't need to come up the rail to win. He can make a move inside and outside of horses it won't matter.

maybe. but the horse has been a rail hugger, no move horse in almost all of this races.

that's a fact.

what i like about the horse is how he looks when he runs. he races strongly on the track. he seems mature and has a powerful stride. that early move last week shows another dynamic as well. he looks special from my point of view, from an eye test. and just the way he looks makes me think there's a possibility for improvement

boys at tosconova · 03-28-2015, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceMasterT

Watch the replay. Stanford was "veering" out of the first turn because he is green. Being on the lead is not where he wants to be, so he got bored, lost focus, started looking at something in the infield and floated out coming out of the first turn. Not because he was tiring.

Standford has the best chance of any of these to improve dramatically. Second time going a route and looks like there are enough early runners for him to sit in his desired tracking position just off the front pack. Hopefully, the jock/trainer don't try to gun him to the lead because of the 1 post position.

i think stanford is more about "hope" he can run/get better than anything else right now. sure he can improve......but for pletcher it's a numbers game. and right now this one seems a notch below w/ limited data

boys at tosconova · 03-28-2015, 10:36 AM

track the race early for possible line up

1/2 leave strong.

3/4/5 each of these is capable of running evenly and holding post position early in the race if they want to.

6- talamo might ask more early

7-will be in the back

8[will be anywhere from 3rd, 4th or 5th position

9-would be shocked to see him leave again..and the 6 should be to his inside this race. best case scenario seems like he'll be 5th early..but that's a reach. more than likely he's 6-9th..with being 9th more likely than 6th

PaceMasterT · 03-28-2015, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i think stanford is more about "hope" he can run/get better than anything else right now. sure he can improve......but for pletcher it's a numbers game. and right now this one seems a notch below w/ limited data

There is no "hope". I use BRIS speed figures, so I'm using that for my comparisons, but he earned a speed figure getting beat by 5 3/4 in last that makes him a contender with these. One of my favorite angles.

PaceMasterT · 03-28-2015, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

track the race early for possible line up

1/2 leave strong.

3/4/5 each of these is capable of running evenly and holding post position early in the race if they want to.

6- talamo might ask more early

7-will be in the back

8[will be anywhere from 3rd, 4th or 5th position

9-would be shocked to see him leave again..and the 6 should be to his inside this race. best case scenario seems like he'll be 5th early..but that's a reach. more than likely he's 6-9th..with being 9th more likely than 6th

This is how I have them lined up after the first 1/4

2, 4, 5, 8
3
1
9
6

7

Stoleitbreezing · 03-28-2015, 06:45 PM

Must say I was surprised that Stanford hit the board today, but looking at the fractional splits he had a soft lead and was game to the wire. International Star continues to impress me. Climbing up the rail and muscling his way through the top of the lane and wearing down a stubborn Stanford. Betting was again swayed by others who thought "he doesn't need to win this, cause he has the points already" bets down a horse he beat twice before, now 3 times. After today I think we can safely say Mr. Z and the slow plodder Keen Ice are a cut below.

PaceMasterT · 03-28-2015, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stoleitbreezing

Must say I was surprised that Stanford hit the board today, but looking at the fractional splits he had a soft lead and was game to the wire. International Star continues to impress me. Climbing up the rail and muscling his way through the top of the lane and wearing down a stubborn Stanford. Betting was again swayed by others who thought "he doesn't need to win this, cause he has the points already" bets down a horse he beat twice before, now 3 times. After today I think we can safely say Mr. Z and the slow plodder Keen Ice are a cut below.

When are these trainers going to grow some balls and actually try to win a race on the front with a horse that likes to be on the front? Mr. Z, Fusiachi Flame, A Day in Paradise, and St. Joe Bay all lost the race before it began when it was decided that they would rate behind the front runner. Twice now that Stanford inherited a lead because everyone else was too scared to go for it. There are horses that like to pass horses (Stanford, International Star, War Story, and Keen Ice) and horses that don't (A day in paradise, Mr. Z, Defondo, and St. Joe Bay). HELLO trainers if you are on a horse that doesn't like to pass horses, get on the lead. Take a look horses that like to pass horses made up the super in that race.

boys at tosconova · 03-30-2015, 11:54 AM

int star came barreling off the rail. surprised he didn't interfere. 1 ran a good race. (this race made materiality a bigger use) expected more from war story. didn't see the rest of the card but the outside portion of the track looked unkind this race. dunno if it was because of pace, but war story was suppose to have more. talamo didn't need to leave the rail. he had position on int star. don't understand why he would leave the rail and go wide, comment should read -wide to nowhere

Stoleitbreezing · 03-30-2015, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

int star came barreling off the rail. surprised he didn't interfere. 1 ran a good race. (this race made materiality a bigger use) expected more from war story. didn't see the rest of the card but the outside portion of the track looked unkind this race. dunno if it was because of pace, but war story was suppose to have more. talamo didn't need to leave the rail. he had position on int star. don't understand why he would leave the rail and go wide, comment should read -wide to nowhere

War Story just wasn't good enough, he's not been good enough the last 3 times he faced International Star. War Story had dead aim on International Star each time, and was still beaten by open lengths. Reminds me of Java's War, but with an inferior closing kick. His gate issues will leave him too much to do if he goes in the derby. I don't think you necessarily needed to be on the rail the other day. International Star is comfortable climbing up the rail and he decided to do so again. I would have preferred him to angle out this time just so I know he remembers how, but a win is a win. What was everyone expecting from War Story? Why was he supposed to move forward when he was breaking awkwardly each time? Did he miss by a neck or a nose to International Star before? Not sure why everyone thought War Story was on the same level as International Star.

International Star closed into very soft fractions and still ran down Stanford, who got the half in 48 in change. Quite impressive to reel a horse in after that slow pace. Still not convinced Standford likes to route off the soft fractions. What odds do we see on International Star come derby day?

OCF · 03-30-2015, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stoleitbreezing

War Story just wasn't good enough, he's not been good enough the last 3 times he faced International Star. War Story had dead aim on International Star each time, and was still beaten by open lengths. Reminds me of Java's War, but with an inferior closing kick. His gate issues will leave him too much to do if he goes in the derby. I don't think you necessarily needed to be on the rail the other day. International Star is comfortable climbing up the rail and he decided to do so again. I would have preferred him to angle out this time just so I know he remembers how, but a win is a win. What was everyone expecting from War Story? Why was he supposed to move forward when he was breaking awkwardly each time? Did he miss by a neck or a nose to International Star before? Not sure why everyone thought War Story was on the same level as International Star.

International Star closed into very soft fractions and still ran down Stanford, who got the half in 48 in change. Quite impressive to reel a horse in after that slow pace. Still not convinced Standford likes to route off the soft fractions. What odds do we see on International Star come derby day?

I'm with you on all of the above, but IS's race on the Churchill Downs dirt last November was not impressive, and that worries me.

Tom · 03-30-2015, 03:41 PM

Jocks area afraid to push, trainers are afraid to enter.
Not the same game it used to be.

The horses are as good, the PEOPLE are much inferior.
Gotta limit how many horses a trainer can have - these puppy mill trainers are killing the game.

Stoleitbreezing · 03-30-2015, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OCF

I'm with you on all of the above, but IS's race on the Churchill Downs dirt last November was not impressive, and that worries me.

I have to look at the replay of that race to see how he went over the track. I think he's made a big improvement from 2 to 3 and is undefeated as a 3 YO. I think we have to see how well he trains leading up to the derby to get an idea what he may end up doing.

He's going to be a nice price no matter what on derby day. I'm guessing we should get near 20 to 1, possibly 25 to 1 come derby day. I'll take a horse who completed the Fairgrounds Hat Trick at those odds every time. I just hope Mena or whoever rides him at the derby doesn't try to get to cute and get stuck on the rail in a 20 horse field going to the "well" one too many times. Seems like a great play at the right odds, if he can't get the kind of respect in LA, why would he in KY against the top contenders from CA.