What's happened to the Wood Memorial?

[OCF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I would think the 4 weeks between the Wood & KD would be just right for the trainers to get their horses ready......instead, the 3 weeks between those races gave us the better results, doesn't make much sense to me as to why only a 3 week layoff would offer a better result. Maybe someone sees something I don't.

I did a lot of research into the timing of the 9 furlong races and the details are too numerous to go into here.

Suffice to say there appears to be a general trend in the direction of a 3 week or 4 week gap. That's EXTREMELY generalized though.

[OCF]

Another conclusion: The Louisiana Derby, the 2015 running of which is this weekend, should be taken very seriously.

I think that might have already been mentioned in other threads.

[SecretAgentMan]

I believe the winner of the LA derby has only won the Kentucky derby only twice.......as for the other horses that ran in the LA derby that came in 2nd or worse, I haven't checked the results. I do know Funny Cide came in 3rd in the LA derby in 2003 & then went on to come in 2nd in the Wood & then win the KD.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I believe the winner of the LA derby has only won the Kentucky derby only twice.......as for the other horses that ran in the LA derby that came in 2nd or worse, I haven't checked the results. I do know Funny Cide came in 3rd in the LA derby in 2003 & then went on to come in 2nd in the Wood & then win the KD.

What interests me most is the 2 KD seconds and 2 KD thirds in the 5 years that the LD has been run at 9 furlongs, not to mention that those 5 years are the most recent years.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by OCF

What interests me most is the 2 KD seconds and 2 KD thirds in the 5 years that the LD has been run at 9 furlongs, not to mention that those 5 years are the most recent years.

Yes, it is interesting.......looking at the upcomibg LA derby, Mr Z has earned $518,000 & has only won his maiden race......this horse has to be ready to break out, too many 2nds & 3rds. Int Star IMO won't win the LA derby, he will run a good 2nd IMO......I'm not betting the race, but think War Story, Mr Z or Keen Ice will win.

Out of those 4 horses that have a chance to win the derby, its Int Star & Mr Z (if he runs a good race & wins LA derby)........can't see Mr Z winning the derby off only a maiden win.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Yes, it is interesting.......looking at the upcomibg LA derby, Mr Z has earned $518,000 & has only won his maiden race......this horse has to be ready to break out, too many 2nds & 3rds. Int Star IMO won't win the LA derby, he will run a good 2nd IMO......I'm not betting the race, but think War Story, Mr Z or Keen Ice will win.

Out of those 4 horses that have a chance to win the derby, its Int Star & Mr Z (if he runs a good race & wins LA derby)........can't see Mr Z winning the derby off only a maiden win.

I won't be betting it either. I think as much as anything I'll be looking after the race to see if any of the horses meet sbcaris's final fraction angle.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Yes, it is interesting.......looking at the upcomibg LA derby, Mr Z has earned $518,000 & has only won his maiden race......this horse has to be ready to break out, too many 2nds & 3rds. Int Star IMO won't win the LA derby, he will run a good 2nd IMO......I'm not betting the race, but think War Story, Mr Z or Keen Ice will win.

Out of those 4 horses that have a chance to win the derby, its Int Star & Mr Z (if he runs a good race & wins LA derby)........can't see Mr Z winning the derby off only a maiden win.

That's what bettors thought in the 2005 Kentucky Derby won by Giacomo.....Look at the pay-offs you would have missed:

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
10 Giacomo Smith 102.60 45.80 19.80
18 Closing Argument Velasquez 70.00 24.80
12 Afleet Alex Rose 4.60

Winning Time: 2:02.75

$2 Exacta 10-18 9,814.80
$2 Trifecta 10-18-12 133,134.80
$1 Superfecta 10-18-12-17 864,253.20
$2 Oaks/Derby Double 595.20

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

That's what bettors thought in the 2005 Kentucky Derby won by Giacomo.....Look at the pay-offs you would have missed:

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
10 Giacomo Smith 102.60 45.80 19.80
18 Closing Argument Velasquez 70.00 24.80
12 Afleet Alex Rose 4.60

Winning Time: 2:02.75

$2 Exacta 10-18 9,814.80
$2 Trifecta 10-18-12 133,134.80
$1 Superfecta 10-18-12-17 864,253.20
$2 Oaks/Derby Double 595.20

Out of all the derby's I've played, Sea Hero baffles me the most, a close 2nd is Giacomo.....payouts were great if you had them, I certainly didn't.

But I see your point......in my eyes, Mr Z is way better than Giacomo at the point, at leadt from my capping perspective. Giacomo was more of a deep closer & never had the lead & then lost the lead in races after his maiden, where Mr Z has had the lead several times & hit a brick wall. I'm interested in seeing him run this Saturday.