What's happened to the Wood Memorial?

[OCF]

Originally Posted by nads1420

seems like a pretty solid closer... maybe an Ice Box type place finish in the Derby at a decent price

Back in February, I think it was the Withers, he cost me the late Pick 4 when he went flying by El Kabeir out of nowhere in the last 16th. He's been on my mind ever since.

I've haven't totally given up on El Kabeir even though that seems to be the consensus. He appears very game to me, and rated and closed well to win in his next out. He might gut out 3rd or 4th in the KD if he starts.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by OCF

Back in February, I think it was the Withers, he cost me the late Pick 4 when he went flying by El Kabeir out of nowhere in the last 16th. He's been on my mind ever since.

I've haven't totally given up on El Kabeir even though that seems to be the consensus. He appears very game to me, and rated and closed well to win in his next out. He might gut out 3rd or 4th in the KD if he starts.

Hey now..., Far From Over romped home for me in my eye!

I see El Kabeir as what I would call "speed challenged". He absolutely has to be near the lead in a race like the Kentucky Derby to have any chance because there is no way in Hades he is passing anybody of note late.

Especially the ones that will be rolling after a mile.

In fact, I fully believe he'll be a very large part of a hectic pace in the Derby. I'd be willing to place a wager on him finishing dead last.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Hey now..., Far From Over romped home for me in my eye!

I see El Kabeir as what I would call "speed challenged". He absolutely has to be near the lead in a race like the Kentucky Derby to have any chance because there is no way in Hades he is passing anybody of note late.

Especially the ones that will be rolling after a mile.

In fact, I fully believe he'll be a very large part of a hectic pace in the Derby. I'd be willing to place a wager on him finishing dead last.

I guess I can't disagree. I'm probably in danger of throwing good money after bad, better to realize it now before its too late.

[sbcaris]

OCF: If all the horses in the Derby had equal chances of running in the money then any given horse would have a 15% chance of running in the money. And we know all things are not equal, so my statement was certainly too hasty of a remark.

Over the last 42 years qualifiers on my final fraction indicator have a 69% chance of winning the roses (29 of 42). These are the only runners I consider in the win position of the Derby and on the average they comprise 6 runners per year. I do not consider the other 31% of the starters as win contenders and yet we know they win the roses 31% of the last 42 years. There will always be exceptions to any method one develops.

You said that the Wood should produce more than 7 contenders in the last 10 years because it is an important prep. Not necessarily, I checked the years 1995- 2000 and on the average the Wood only sends around 1 contender per year to the Derby assuming that a contender is a runner than qualifies on my final fraction indicator.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

OCF: If all the horses in the Derby had equal chances of running in the money then any given horse would have a 15% chance of running in the money. And we know all things are not equal, so my statement was certainly too hasty of a remark.

Over the last 42 years qualifiers on my final fraction indicator have a 69% chance of winning the roses (29 of 42). These are the only runners I consider in the win position of the Derby and on the average they comprise 6 runners per year. I do not consider the other 31% of the starters as win contenders and yet we know they win the roses 31% of the last 42 years. There will always be exceptions to any method one develops.

You said that the Wood should produce more than 7 contenders in the last 10 years because it is an important prep. Not necessarily, I checked the years 1995- 2000 and on the average the Wood only sends around 1 contender per year to the Derby assuming that a contender is a runner than qualifies on my final fraction indicator.

It was 7 contenders in 11 years, not 10 years. I have a hard time calling that close to around 1 per year.

Maybe its time to grant you the last word and then agree to disagree?

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Hey now..., Far From Over romped home for me in my eye!

I see El Kabeir as what I would call "speed challenged". He absolutely has to be near the lead in a race like the Kentucky Derby to have any chance because there is no way in Hades he is passing anybody of note late.

Especially the ones that will be rolling after a mile.

In fact, I fully believe he'll be a very large part of a hectic pace in the Derby. I'd be willing to place a wager on him finishing dead last.

Speed challenged is a good word for it, and, I still question how far he can go.

FFO did indeed run a big race that day, Husker...wasn't just your eyes. Things go his way in the Derby, I think he can be right there.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Tall One

Speed challenged is a good word for it, and, I still question how far he can go.

FFO did indeed run a big race that day, Husker...wasn't just your eyes. Things go his way in the Derby, I think he can be right there.

No more cursing our horse.

Silence till Derby Day.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by OCF

I've been doing some more research into my own question and have come with several possible contributing factors:

1. I went back 30 years and found the following:

A. From 1985 to 1993 the WM was held 2 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 0 firsts, 1 second and 1 third in the KD during that time period.

B. From 1994 to 2004 the WM was held 3 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 4 firsts, 2 seconds and 1 thirds in the KD during that time period.

C. From 2005 to 2014 the WM was held 4 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 0 firsts, 0 seconds and 0 thirds in the KD during that time period.

Conversely, find what Derby prep picked up the slack of winners that the WM left behind in the last 10 years...

[sbcaris]

OCF: Do you conclude anything from the three time frames and results you stated about the Wood Memorial above?

[SecretAgentMan]

I would think the 4 weeks between the Wood & KD would be just right for the trainers to get their horses ready......instead, the 3 weeks between those races gave us the better results, doesn't make much sense to me as to why only a 3 week layoff would offer a better result. Maybe someone sees something I don't.

[OCF]

I accidentally posted that post before it was done, it was supposed to look like this:

I've been doing some more research into my own question and have come up with several possible contributing factors:

1. I went back 30 years and found the following:

A. From 1985 to 1993 the WM was held 2 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 0 firsts, 1 second and 1 third in the KD during that time period.

B. From 1994 to 2004 the WM was held 3 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 4 firsts, 2 seconds and 1 thirds in the KD during that time period.

C. From 2005 to 2014 the WM was held 4 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 0 firsts, 0 seconds and 0 thirds in the KD during that time period.

My guess is that during that 1994 to 2004 time period the timing of the WM was in a sweet spot in relation to the timing of the other preps, a sweet spot that it was not in before or since.

2. In 2010 the Louisiana Derby switched from 8.5 to 9 furlongs. In the 25 years before that no horse that finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the KD prepped last in the LD. In the ensuing 5 years the corresponding tally was 2 seconds and 2 thirds.

It looks like the LD distance change has made the LD a viable option for KD preppers. While I wouldn't go so far as to say horses that before would have prepped in the WM are now prepping in the LD, it does seem possible that having another viable option has diluted the WM.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Conversely, find what Derby prep picked up the slack of winners that the WM left behind in the last 10 years...

The Lousiana Derby, due to the distance change from 8.5 to 9 furlongs in 2010. Perhaps that's the reason behind your ?

I think that goes a long way towards accounting for at least the last 5 years.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

OCF: Do you conclude anything from the three time frames and results you stated about the Wood Memorial above?

Please see amended post, i.e. #41.

[ReplayRandall]

Here's a link that's quite useful for research info dealing with KD Preps:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/k...%282015%29.pdf

[OCF]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Here's a link that's quite useful for research info dealing with KD Preps:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/k...%282015%29.pdf

I took a quick look, it is interesting. Thanks