What Horses Are Easy Throw Outs Not To Win The Kentucky Derby?

[SecretAgentMan]

I would like to add, I could change my mind & pick an entirely different horse for the derby than the horses I like as of now, but it will always be only 1 horse.

[sbcaris]

Here is a method that can toss out around 70% of the Derby field and has a win percentage around 67%. All you need do when the entries are drawn for the Derby is to eliminate any horse that does not achieve a final 3/8 of 37 4/5 or less or a final 1/8 of 12 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race (Fla Derby, Wood, SA Derby, Blue Grass or Ark Derby). This method hit 10 of the last 15 Derbies. The only exceptions since the year 2000 were: Animal Kingdom, Big Brown, Street Sense, Mine that Bird, and War Emblem.

This method gets approximately 30% starters in the Derby on the average which translates into 6 horses per year. And from these 30% starters we get 67% winners. The impact value for the above angle is a strong 2.23 which means these types win the roses a little more than twice as often as expected.

I did the above research back to 1973 so it was a 40 year period where the above stats were derived.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Here is a method that can toss out around 70% of the Derby field and has a win percentage around 67%. All you need do when the entries are drawn for the Derby is to eliminate any horse that does not achieve a final 3/8 of 37 4/5 or less or a final 1/8 of 12 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race (Fla Derby, Wood, SA Derby, Blue Grass or Ark Derby). This method hit 10 of the last 15 Derbies. The only exceptions since the year 2000 were: Animal Kingdom, Big Brown, Street Sense, Mine that Bird, and War Emblem.

This method gets approximately 30% starters in the Derby on the average which translates into 6 horses per year. And from these 30% starters we get 67% winners. The impact value for the above angle is a strong 2.23 which means these types win the roses a little more than twice as often as expected.

I did the above research back to 1973 so it was a 40 year period where the above stats were derived.

Love your work sbcaris.......you bring a lot of good stuff to the table helping many of us with our capping, thanks in advance.

I'm assuming Firing Line finished the last 1/8th of a miile in less than the above time mentioned or the 3/8th mile as well. He was flying........

[sbcaris]

He won easily and raced the final 3/8 in 38 1/5 and the final 1/8 in 12 3/5.

However, my method above if you read it carefully ONLY considers a fast finish in one of 5 big preps: SA Derby, Bluegrass, Wood, Fla Derby, and Ark Derby.
The statistics I stated above only refer to those races over the last 40 years. 67% of the time the Derby winner qualifies on fast final fractions in one of the above 5 preps.

There were 5 Exceptions to the Rule in the last 15 years (there wil always be exceptions)--Animal Kingdom who never ran on dirt until Derby day, Big Brown who missed qualifying by 1/5 of a second, Street Sense who ran on a polytrack at Keenland in his only prep at 9 furlongs for the Derby, War Emblem who raced in the Illinois Derby and did run a fast final 3/8 but the Illinois Derby is not one of my big 5 prep races and Mine That Bird who just did not qualify at all.

[SecretAgentMan]

OK sbcaris, I will wait patiently for the results of the 5 big prep races.

[boys at tosconova]

spanish chestnut

[SecretAgentMan]

Firing Line received a 97 after winning by 14 1/2 lengths crushing the lower tier field, which was low from what I witnessed, but beyer knows his stuff.


Firing Line is a toss out for me, can't see him winning the derby. He won Bellamy Road style, but didn't get Bellamy's number.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Firing Line is a toss out for me, can't see him winning the derby. He won Bellamy Road style, but didn't get Bellamy's number.

I don't think it wins either given the breeding (Storm Cat horses have never won the Derby in something like 44 starters and Northern Dancer horses have had limited success.) but the horse could be an elite miler. Reminds me of Goldencents. Thing is, if a person doesn't like Firing Line in the Derby then same person shouldn't like Dortmund all that much either. They're only about a length apart at 8.5F. I'm having a tough time tossing that one even though Northern Dancer horses only win the Derby about once per decade.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I don't think it wins either given the breeding (Storm Cat horses have never won the Derby in something like 44 starters and Northern Dancer horses have had limited success.) but the horse could be an elite miler. Reminds me of Goldencents. Thing is, if a person doesn't like Firing Line in the Derby then same person shouldn't like Dortmund all that much either. They're only about a length apart at 8.5F. I'm having a tough time tossing that one even though Northern Dancer horses only win the Derby about once per decade.

Like that stat man......0-44 is a solid negative against FL

[Stillriledup]

I would suggest to not commit yourself to throwouts weeks in advance, remember, you don't get paid extra for tossing horses today, so why not wait till the last possible second? Wait till you see horses warming up on the track before you "toss" horses out?

Handicappers want to be "heroes" but all that matters is if you cash a ticket. This isn't YOUR Ky Derby, its the derby of the owners of the horses...to you, its just another gambling opportunity..a tough race with 20 horses running a distance they've never run before, on a track most of them haven't ever raced on before and lots of other unknowns including much more strict prerace security, so if your horse has a cheating trainer or is running in a circuit that is the "wild west" its a whole lot different on Derby day.

Stick with horses who win battles, not horses who swell up and win by large margins unchallenged..those horses, unless they have previously showed "fighting power" you have to tread lightly with these large margin winners, horses like Verrazano winning by country miles but when they get into the battle and get bumped around a bit and have to be a professional racehorse, they can underachieve at short prices.

There's no advantage to toss out horses today, wait till as late as you can, there' no financial benefit to toss one now, they don't pay you extra.

[Capper Al]

Toss anything that I pick.

[minethatbird08]

El Kabeir is a toss for me regardless of how well he does in the Wood.

I am only considering horses with 50 or more points, fwiw. I start capping them once they meet that threshold because they are in for sure minus injury/illness and it gives me less work to do the week leading into the KD.

[SecretAgentMan]

There are definite pros to watch horses at Churchill the week of the derby, like Animal Kingdom & Super Saver.....kind of think that's why AK's odds went from 30-1 to 20-1......Super Saver 15-1 to 8-1 by closing.

On the other hand, I've seen horses have great workouts over Churchill & not do squat on derby day.

I can't just wait until a few days before the derby to pick my horse.......my mind would be scrambled eggs with all the hype that's thrown around that week.

Nothing wrong with throwing out horses in late March that IMO have no shot of winning, of course that horse I threw out might do something spectacular in his last race & I pick him back up & put him back on my short list.......but I'm very confident in saying I won't be betting on Firing Line, Dortmund, American Pharaoh, or Carpe Diem to win come May 2nd.

I am confident in saying a medium to long shot will win this year, but the question is who? I'm thinking 10-1 or higher.......

The Smarty Jones, Big Browns & Cali Chromes are easy to pick out......its not that they are so great, as it is those years there is a weaker crop of 3 yr olds they're running against......of course this can be argued. Not taking anything away from those horses, as they were monsters.

This year the 3 year old crop is more even with the stand outs being a tad better than their opponents. IMO, Dortmund peaked already, so did Pharaoh......Firing Line broke the Sunland track record at 1 1/8th..........easy throwouts for me.

[BlueChip@DRF]

The newcomers like Dubai Sky and I Spent It look like candidates for a possible upset. I really like the broodmare's damside of I Spent It.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

There are definite pros to watch horses at Churchill the week of the derby, like Animal Kingdom & Super Saver.....kind of think that's why AK's odds went from 30-1 to 20-1......Super Saver 15-1 to 8-1 by closing.

On the other hand, I've seen horses have great workouts over Churchill & not do squat on derby day.

I can't just wait until a few days before the derby to pick my horse.......my mind would be scrambled eggs with all the hype that's thrown around that week.

Nothing wrong with throwing out horses in late March that IMO have no shot of winning, of course that horse I threw out might do something spectacular in his last race & I pick him back up & put him back on my short list.......but I'm very confident in saying I won't be betting on Firing Line, Dortmund, American Pharaoh, or Carpe Diem to win come May 2nd.

I am confident in saying a medium to long shot will win this year, but the question is who? I'm thinking 10-1 or higher.......

The Smarty Jones, Big Browns & Cali Chromes are easy to pick out......its not that they are so great, as it is those years there is a weaker crop of 3 yr olds they're running against......of course this can be argued. Not taking anything away from those horses, as they were monsters.

This year the 3 year old crop is more even with the stand outs being a tad better than their opponents. IMO, Dortmund peaked already, so did Pharaoh......Firing Line broke the Sunland track record at 1 1/8th..........easy throwouts for me.

I agree with you on much of what you said. Although I'm not so sure I'd throw the big 3 out of my derby tickets just yet. I will also be looking for value and a longshot or two when making my final derby wagers.

I find it interesting that Firing Line is being highly thought of beating nothing at Sunland, whereas International Star is being dismissed as too slow to compete with the top contenders off of what he did in Louisiana. International Star's wins albeit against weak fields were more professional/workmen like coming off the rail or splitting horses then Firing Line's wire to wire jog against nothing. I'll be looking to see what Upstart, Frosted, Tiz Shea D, and International Star do in their next races as i think they offer the most value come derby day.

Throwouts: OchoOchoOcho , Daredevil, Keen Ice, Frammento, Classy Class, Bold Conquest, Mr. Z, and Conquest Typhoon