Turfway Park Spiral Stakes 3/21

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Really really tough race. With the scratch of Imperia, it looks like Metaboss will be the favorite, but Royal Son will also take a lot of money as well.

With all the questions in this race, particularly the surface and the distance, this race looks to be extremely wide open. At least to me it does, which makes for a great wagering opportunity.

A look at the field:

Royal Son: He came back really strong in his last out in the John Battaglia while wiring the field and walking to a 5 1/4 length win on this very track. Prescott and Pletcher are a perfect 2 for 2 together as Jockey and Trainer, and the breeding is excellent. Can he get the lead and walk again? Not likely, but a big time contender in here.

Big Family: He has been aggressively placed in 2015 by his connections, but hasn't produced much. He'll need to be on the front end if he wants any part of this one, but even then he seems well short of others. A change to poly could make a huge difference?

Watchyourownbobber: My hard running 2nd place selection in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (Hard Spun), has turned into a nice little sire. You also have to like improving 3YOs at this time of year, and that is exactly what you get with this colt. Oh yeah, we also have the connections of the Ramsey's, Maker, and Maragh. I like this one quite a bit. Especially at the 20/1 ML. This is a big step up in class, but the Ramsey's likely purchased this one with a purpose back in December.

Wireless Future: He has won 3 in a row. And that is about all I like. He'll likely be a part of the early pace, but he is taking a monster step up in class, and will be running on the fake stuff for the first time. If his latest work convinces you, have at it.

Another Lemon Drop: Probably ends up on the turf when all is said and done, but I can't discount a solid closer in this field. Likely can't win, but he wouldn't be a complete shock.

Imperia: SCRATCH

Magic of Believing: He has found some magic lately in earning his only 2 career wins in 6 tries his last 2 out. He would like some pace to run into while he tries the poly for the first time. Not a fan of the breeding, but could be a bomb to throw in on some exotics.

Task Force Glory: 2015 has been miserable for this entry. A well beaten third as the favorite in a $75K optional claimer, and a no factor in the John Battaglia last out by 22 lengths. Ramsey's and Maker are in line, but we need to see massive improvement just for him to fill out the Superfecta in this one.

Conquest Typhoon: Gotta love the confidence in placing this guy in his first race in a open $150K stakes race..., and he nearly won. He hasn't had a bad race yet, but often falls just short. Solid horse that can run from off the pace, or set the pace if needed. Mike Smith comes back for the mount, so he has to be respected. Major contender.

Firespike: An extremely inconsistent horse, but does have 3 wins including a couple of $100K races. Can't include 'em all, so I'm gonna kick this one.

Metaboss: As I stated, I think he'll be the favorite. That was a really nice run in the El Camino Real Derby, and he blew past everybody when the real racing began to ride home in easy fashion including Conquest Typhoon. Can't leave off of any ticket. Only concern is the "not so sharp" works since his romp at Golden Gate.

Dubai Sky: Just a terrible post for this one. He has to be on the lead, or at least near it, to have any chance. With a ton of speed on the rail, he'll have to work too hard to get in position. First time Lasix in his 5th career race is interesting. Another entry coming in off of 3 wins that I'm likely to be kicking.

WP:
EX: /
Tri: //

[SecretAgentMan]

I agree that this is a wide open race....for me its a no touch. I'm gonna sit back & watch this race & cap the horses that do well.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I agree that this is a wide open race....for me its a no touch. I'm gonna sit back & watch this race & cap the horses that do well.

Yeah, I can respect that. Scary competitive race that we'll all need to see the Post Parade before making a final decision (if any).

[boys at tosconova]

why do you like the bobber so much?

[boys at tosconova]

what if the pace doesn't set up for metaboss? that is a big concern of mine.

short price and at a disadvantage having to come from way back at a track that it's almost impossible to do so.

i could easily see him closing for 3rd/4th because of it.

[boys at tosconova]

for me i have to play the 4 and 9 in this race. you'll get a square price on the 4 and both should be placed well.

hard to leave the 1 out imo. even though i want to

i think the 12 will have too far to come and will toss him. not to mention getting torched if he does.

the other trio of horses that may get action from me in the exacta is speed close ups...that's why i'm asking you about the bobber..i want to use the 2 and or 5/7 as well.

price dictates quite a bit....but i can toss the 11 because of racing style...

don't know which four i'm going to use but the 4/9 will be two of them.

[SecretAgentMan]

The trainer Mike Maker has 3 horses in this race, all 3 long shots of 20-1 or higher.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

The trainer Mike Maker has 3 horses in this race, all 3 long shots of 20-1 or higher.

none of them look the part. only considering the bobber because he'll be close up and should be long odds

[SecretAgentMan]

I won't be betting this race, but after looking over the past performances, I like:

#9 Conquest Typhoon to win, & in exactas over #11 Metaboss & #12 Dubai Sky

[f2tornado]

I'm gonna box the 11 & 12 for the exacta and wheel those two over the 1 & 9 for the tri. I do think the 3 & 4 are reasonable longshot plays, primarily in the exotics. I discussed the 12 Dubai Sky in Buckpasser thread. He's got the most upside here and gets L1. I don't like the post but otherwise seems like a live play. Royal Son should have nice rail trip but should see far more speed here than in JBM. No free pass this time and I will use primarily underneath. I will be using Sweet Success from race 10 in horizontals. This filly has Buckpasser and conduit mare Rambling Rose in the tail female.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm gonna box the 11 & 12 for the exacta and wheel those two over the 1 & 9 for the tri. I do think the 3 & 4 are reasonable longshot plays, primarily in the exotics. I discussed the 12 Dubai Sky in Buckpasser thread. He's got the most upside here and gets L1. I don't like the post but otherwise seems like a live play. Royal Son should have nice rail trip but should see far more speed here than in JBM. No free pass this time and I will use primarily underneath. I will be using Sweet Success from race 10 in horizontals. This filly has Buckpasser and conduit mare Rambling Rose in the tail female.

The winner of this race has prepped at Gulfstream 5 years in a row, which is another reason to like Dubai Sky.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

why do you like the bobber so much?

As I stated in the post, he is getting better. A lot better. Hard Spun has been a sneaky good Sire, and the acquisition by the Ramsey's can really give a horse some life. (Not saying they are cheating).

I think Rajiv Maragh is a monster upgrade in the saddle, and this colt has won his last two races.

Hey, I'll agree, he hasn't beaten anybody, but if you give me Maker, Ramsey's, Maragh, and out of Hard Spun at 20/1 for a horse that has won 2 in a row? Yeah, I'm gonna take a swing at it regardless of class. He also just ran a bullet at the track giving me more confidence that the barn change has helped.

This is a wide open race with almost every horse that has shown consistently that they can be beat rather easily. Especially in company with one another with the stakes this high. I also see the rolling into this race coming in off of career best efforts, if not really close to being career bests. They have all shown "bounce" tendencies in the past outside of the Metaboss. I'm not even sure I can take the seriously in here. He'll either park the field, or be a complete flop.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

what if the pace doesn't set up for metaboss? that is a big concern of mine.

short price and at a disadvantage having to come from way back at a track that it's almost impossible to do so.

i could easily see him closing for 3rd/4th because of it.

I see a hot pace.

Everybody in the field knows they can't just let the romp away on the lead in here at this track. I see the , maybe the and likely the wanting/needing to get into the mix early. I actually see the being sent because it is his only chance, which will push the . 23 and 3, maybe 47 and 4, with 1:12 and 1 or so seems very possible to me. Which is fast for TP at 9 panels.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Just some research for all to digest.

In the last 5 years, here are the splits and then where the top 4 finishers were after 4Fs in the Spiral.

2010: Dean's Kitten

:24.48, :48.47, 1:12.68

Top 4 at 4fs: 3rd, 5th, 8th, 7th

2011: Animal Kingdom

23:57, 46:56, 1:12.57

Top 4 at 4fs: 7th, 2nd, 9th, 6th

2012: Went The Day Well

:23.8, :46.98, 1:11.86

Top 4 at 4fs: 5th, 7th, 1st, 12th

2013: Black Onyx

:24.56, :48.30, 1:13

Top 4 at 4fs: 6th, 4th, 2nd, 3rd

2014: We Miss Artie

:22.78, :47.21, 1:12.43

Top 4 at 4fs: 7th, 3rd, 5th, 6th

You still like speed at Turfway in the 1 1/8th mile in the Spiral? I mean, there have been some pedestrian paces in which speed hasn't even hit the Super the past 5 years.

[boys at tosconova]

well...for me it's hard to envision a hot pace and not having the 3 effected by it.

seems like the 2 won't argue enough..and the 4 looks cheap.

casse doesn't want the 9 on the front end either.

imo the only horse that will make the pace fast is the 12 if he wants to push over. what the 12 does will mean quite a bit for many horses. if the 12 doesn't like the track or post it won't go that fast

i see a 13429 lineup early... the 1 should dictate and the 234 should be happy as clams to sit behind him...and if i play the 234 w/ the 1/9 i hope they're classy enough, or good enough because of the up close favoring oval