BGboothA's False Favorites

[bgbootha]

I have been posting this on another forum and had a great response this month, so I thought I would share them here.

These aren't picks as much as they are non-picks. Looking at the False Morning Line Favorites from around the country.

Morning line Favorites win at about the same clip as Post Time favorites according to some Brisnet/Twinspires info. So roughly 33% of the time, they show about 70% of the time.

In a small sample size thus far in March. My False Favorites:
FF Win % = 19.57%
FF Show % = 42.75%
Avg Win $ = $15.01



I will try to post these daily. Let me know what you think.

[NYMess]

1 for 2 at Parx. The winner went of at even money the loser at 14-1!!
I wish you were right twice as I had the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers in my pick 3. Lol. Good luck

[DRIVEWAY]

Just Curious.

When your ML false favorites hit at 16% then how do the second ML perform in those races?

[bgbootha]

Not as well as one would think, the 2nd ML doesn't stand out statistically against the rest of the field. It's really been an indicator to toss the favorite and look elsewhere for a price.

[CptMisery]

Thank you for sharing this information. I look forward to your posts.

[bgbootha]

Don't have updated stats just yet, but here is the list for Tuesday

03/17/2015

[bgbootha]

False Favorites for 03/18/2015

[bgbootha]

[bgbootha]

I was out of town today, but here is the False Favorites report for Saturday, 03/21/15.

[bgbootha]

False Favorites for 03/22

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

False Favorites for 03/22

I like the idea a lot.
I dont know that i would call BETTER MAN at Tampa 9 a false favorite...a lot of slugs in that race,but I hope your right because im trying to beat him myself with the only horse with less starts than him.
This is something different and look forward to reading more.

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

I like the idea a lot.
I dont know that i would call BETTER MAN at Tampa 9 a false favorite...a lot of slugs in that race,but I hope your right because im trying to beat him myself with the only horse with less starts than him.
This is something different and look forward to reading more.

Thanks, this is all data straight out of the system, I use it more as a guide looking for races with potential value, more than anything else. Kind of like a filter to start my day.

I also have had a lot of luck looking for horizontals where more than one of these FF fall into the string.

[bgbootha]

Been out of town for a few days...here are the False Favorites for Florida/Louisiana Derby Day.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

I have been posting this on another forum and had a great response this month, so I thought I would share them here.

These aren't picks as much as they are non-picks. Looking at the False Morning Line Favorites from around the country.

Morning line Favorites win at about the same clip as Post Time favorites according to some Brisnet/Twinspires info. So roughly 33% of the time, they show about 70% of the time.

In a small sample size thus far in March. My False Favorites:
FF Win % = 19.57%
FF Show % = 42.75%
Avg Win $ = $15.01



I will try to post these daily. Let me know what you think.

If the FF win% is 19.57% and the Average win is 15 dollars, isn't it more profitable to back these then oppose them?

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by Some_One

If the FF win% is 19.57% and the Average win is 15 dollars, isn't it more profitable to back these then oppose them?

No, LOL. But I can see how that is worded weird.

When the Favorite wins....the Average Payout is $5.85. The $15 figure is the total average winner for all the races.