***Road To Derby Plays***

[Saratoga_Mike]

To Grits' point, why was the race made official so quickly?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Grits

You may wanna look at the replay....not everyone thinks Materiality was "much the best" in the stretch. According to David Grenig of DRF, Ortiz on Upstart wanted a claim of foul. It wasn't allowed to be heard.

Wow, really, gotta watch the replay.......I got up & walked into the kitchen to get something to eat.

I even called my cousin who is a die hard horse racing fan & he didn't mention it.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

To Grits' point, why was the race made official so quickly?

Hmm.....so take down Upstart for basically doing the same thing to a pathetic Knockout, & they didn't see fit for Pletchers Materiality.......they stewards want Pletcher in the derby with an undefeated horse as will Baffert with Dortmund.

[SecretAgentMan]

El Kabeir vs Frosted.......EK is in the derby, whether he runs as a workout or tries to win remains to be seen. EK looks like he's half the size of Dortmund but has as much heart & determination as Dort.

EK is a horse that brings the owners a check every time he runs.

Frosted was a length ahead of Upstart & KO in the FOY & stopped abruptly coming in 4th. Trainer says something definitely bothered him.

A good race to watch & see what happens going forward into Kentucky.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

El Kabeir vs Frosted.......EK is in the derby, whether he runs as a workout or tries to win remains to be seen. EK looks like he's half the size of Dortmund but has as much heart & determination as Dort.

EK is a horse that brings the owners a check every time he runs.

Frosted was a length ahead of Upstart & KO in the FOY & stopped abruptly coming in 4th. Trainer says something definitely bothered him.

A good race to watch & see what happens going forward into Kentucky.

Was it the distance?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Was it the distance?

McLaughlin stated they did a common surgery procedure on Frosted & corrected the problem......he also stated the GP track was deep & dry & wore down all the horses, so I'm assuming the surgery was note important than the deep track.

From.the sounds of it, the trainer wanted to get his horses out of the GP deep track & onto a better dirt track that the horse could handle better.

[SecretAgentMan]

Carpe Diem should win for fun......at least I hope he does. I don't see much competition for him at all......7 horses will go into the gate.......7 horses will go into the Wood as well, & only 6 into Santa Anita derby.



Dortmund gets the #1 post for the SA derby & Baffert wasn't pleased, but said Garcia will have to make it work.

The SA derby will have some early speed, but I think whatever path Dortmund & his jockey choose, they should win with ease.

[davew]

It is starting to look to me that there will be a few good horses that will not have enough points to run (so does that mean they are not good enough, or bad luck with hard competition in late preps?)

I am thinking of these, and would be surprised if over half started in Derby

Prospect Park
Bold Conquest
Mr. Z
Frosted
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Metaboss
Daredevil
Bolo


I am looking at some prop bets and am thinking of these couple

over 20.5 points needed to run at +115
will there be an in inquiry yes +400

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by davew

It is starting to look to me that there will be a few good horses that will not have enough points to run (so does that mean they are not good enough, or bad luck with hard competition in late preps?)

I am thinking of these, and would be surprised if over half started in Derby

Prospect Park
Bold Conquest
Mr. Z
Frosted
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Metaboss
Daredevil
Bolo


I am looking at some prop bets and am thinking of these couple

over 20.5 points needed to run at +115
will there be an in inquiry yes +400

I like Bold Conquest, Prospect Park, Frosted & Bolo on your list to possibly make the derby. Mr Z is a piece of crap, not going anywhere.

[SecretAgentMan]

Dortmund out of the #1 post will be very interesting......either he goes to the front right away or possibly gets pinched back on the first turn if he's not out if the gate fast.

IMO, if Dortmund & Pharaoh don't learn to rate in their next race, they will be in big trouble come derby day.

Dortmund wins the SA derby......Bolo for 2nd......kind of tough to put a horse for 2nd in this race because the others will be running for 2nd.

[SecretAgentMan]

Carpet Diem & Dortmund ran exactly how I thought they would.......nice wins by both of them.

I thought El Kabeir would give Frosted a run for the money.......either way, good win for Frosted.

Dubai Sky is off the derby trail.......another horse I didn't like at all in the derby & now gets scratched.

[SecretAgentMan]

International Star......(just keeps winning, & will be good odds on derby day.....also love how he closes)

Upstart.....(keep watching the Florida derby & trying to see if he can get better, the track was deep & dull at GP all year & he's done well over it)

Frosted.....(like how he closed in the Wood, & yes, I know he didn't beat much, but as long as you beat who they put in the gate next to you, that's all that matters.......the throat surgery seems to have helped him alot)

Mubtaahij......(can't figure this horse out yet, will watch him & the other 3 I like during derby week at Churchill)


Everyone else I'm throwing out, don't like them......we still have the Ark derby to run, & unless someone besides AP runs really good, don't care for that race either.......AP won't be winning the KD.

[SecretAgentMan]

Frosted received a nice beyer of 103.......

[nads1420]

is there anywhere to get/purchase updated derby contender pps?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by nads1420

is there anywhere to get/purchase updated derby contender pps?

Go to Kentucky Derby.com & click on each horse & then download the PP's for each horse individually......that's the only way to do it now & they're all updated.