***Road To Derby Plays*** - Page 4 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

SecretAgentMan · 03-21-2015, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenyatta To Crush

Oh and Khozan is off the derby trail so that list is just old I guess.

Nope, that list is up to date as of Match 18th from Bovada......then again, I think Bovada is a crooked sports book, so maybe they're just trying g to trap unknowing bettors.

Got the list from a very dependable horse racing site.

SecretAgentMan · 03-21-2015, 11:45 PM

As of now, my derby horses are:

International Star

Upstart

That's it, those are the only 2 I like as of now......will watch the next 2 weeks of big preps & decide of I should add anyone else, but I doubt I will.

Some years it takes until the last prep race to figure out a possible derby winner, & things may change very fast for me if I see a surprise like horse like Charismatic, but I doubt we will see anything crazy like that this year.

I'm throwing out all the Spiral stakes horses, none of them can win the derby IMO.......even tho Dubai Sky finished the race 2 seconds faster than Animal Kingdom.

SecretAgentMan · 03-22-2015, 02:07 PM

Picked the 9 with the 12/11 yesterday in the Spiral, didn't have any money in the race.......

I like Firing Line for the Sunland derby.....as for Exactas, your guess is as good as mine, & I won't be betting this race either, not much money to be made on FL to win.

SecretAgentMan · 03-22-2015, 08:38 PM

Firing Line complimented Dortmund with the easiest win of all prep races so far this year, way too easy of a winner.......Firing Line will probably receive about a 102 beyer, maybe more, we shall see ........Sunland is known to be a fast track.....finished in 1:47 & change at 1 1/8th race.

I'm thinking Firing Line will be the 3rd choice in Kentucky behind Pharaoh & Dortmund, assuming they win their races.

nads1420 · 03-24-2015, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Firing Line complimented Dortmund with the easiest win of all prep races so far this year, way too easy of a winner.......Firing Line will probably receive about a 102 beyer, maybe more, we shall see ........Sunland is known to be a fast track.....finished in 1:47 & change at 1 1/8th race.

I'm thinking Firing Line will be the 3rd choice in Kentucky behind Pharaoh & Dortmund, assuming they win their races.

I think if Carpe Diem wins the Blue Grass he will be the 3rd choice. The only race he ever lostwas the Breeders Cup Juvenile he had a absolute terrible trip. 3 wide around the 1st turn 6 wide around the far turn and got cut off. Then he still passed the majority of the field to finish 2nd.

SecretAgentMan · 03-24-2015, 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nads1420

I think if Carpe Diem wins the Blue Grass he will be the 3rd choice. The only race he ever lostwas the Breeders Cup Juvenile he had a absolute terrible trip. 3 wide around the 1st turn 6 wide around the far turn and got cut off. Then he still passed the majority of the field to finish 2nd.

I agree......if Carpe, Dort & AP all win their races, then Firing Line will be 4th choice & possibly the "wise guy" horse.

SecretAgentMan · 03-25-2015, 01:34 AM

Lukas has only 1 possible derby, & I don't see him.skipping this derby, so with Mr Z only having 14 points, he will need to place in the top 4.....he's been nothing but coming in the money earning $518,000, which before the point standings started, would have earned him a spot in Kentucky.

I like the point standings way better makes the trainer focus on racing his horse to win, rather than hold them.back like back in the day.

With Int Star being the favorite, & War Story looking to turn the tables on Int Star, it will make for an interesting race......

I can't figure out who's gonna win this race.....I know every other horse besides Int Star needs to win or place.......Mr Z can get in by placing on the top 4 if I'm not mistaken since he's already got 14 points.

Keen Ice is also in this race as well which will be a long shot.

Would like to see Mr Z pull a Charismatic, but I doubt we will. Lukas already has 4 derby winners while Baffert has 3 & Pletcher 1......Lukas once won 6 straight triple crown races. Has his time passed? I believe so, he doesn't get the 3 year old monsters he once did, Baffert & Pletcher receive them now.

Your guess is as good as mine, good luck.....

Bennie · 03-25-2015, 05:55 PM

Interested to see what the "blinkers-off" will do for Mr. Z. Little side note though is that horses who have "equipment changes" as 3 year olds don't win the Derby. Not to say he can't win Saturday. I just hope with the blinks off he doesn't have focus problems and make an extra wide turn at the top of the stretch and head for the parking lot.

SecretAgentMan · 03-25-2015, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bennie

Interested to see what the "blinkers-off" will do for Mr. Z. Little side note though is that horses who have "equipment changes" as 3 year olds don't win the Derby. Not to say he can't win Saturday. I just hope with the blinks off he doesn't have focus problems and make an extra wide turn at the top of the stretch and head for the parking lot.

Mr Z has mental problems which I hope Lukas has corrected. I like this horse even tho I've scratched him off my derby list of horses......he's been in 1st place several times in his races & has hit a brick wall. Unless he pulls a Charismatic, he's not playable in Kentucky.

He looks like he wants to have a break out race, we shall see.......I don't think Int Star will win the LA derby, not betting to win in this race. I was thinking of playing $200 to show on Mr Z, I figure we will see $3.60 to show.

nads1420 · 03-25-2015, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

As of now, my derby horses are:

International Star

Upstart

seriously or you being sarcastic? Thats a pretty random top 2

SecretAgentMan · 03-25-2015, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nads1420

seriously or you being sarcastic? Thats a pretty random top 2

What's random about it? Those are the only 2 that I like as of now......I may add &/or drop a horse after watching the next 2 to 3 weeks of racing. Only 1 horse will win the Kentucky derby......

SecretAgentMan · 03-27-2015, 01:18 AM

$500 to show on Upstart.....only play in the race for me......

My opinion is that Upstart may win, he doesn't have to, but since he wasn't fully cranked up for his last race, Rich will have him ready to go.

I'm thinking the #7 Materiality will try to win it like Constitution last year.

SecretAgentMan · 03-27-2015, 07:01 PM

This race is too tough for me.....I hope Mubtaahij doesn't win, because he will throw a wrench in the KD for me, never knowing if a UAE horse will finally break thru & win the roses.

SecretAgentMan · 03-28-2015, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

$500 to show on Upstart.....only play in the race for me......

My opinion is that Upstart may win, he doesn't have to, but since he wasn't fully cranked up for his last race, Rich will have him ready to go.

I'm thinking the #7 Materiality will try to win it like Constitution last year.

Should have played a $500 exacta str 7-9.......Upstart looked good, but Materiality was much the best, & knowing Pletcher, he had him fully cranked.

Grits · 03-28-2015, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Should have played a $500 exacta str 7-9.......Upstart looked good, but Materiality was much the best, & knowing Pletcher, he had him fully cranked.

You may wanna look at the replay....not everyone thinks Materiality was "much the best" in the stretch. According to David Grenig of DRF, Ortiz on Upstart wanted a claim of foul. It wasn't allowed to be heard.