Cratos's thread about wind force

[Magister Ludi]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

As someone who is hematology trained, I really would love to check the facts on this one. Do you have the info. To create two types of red cells from the marrow would not be possible unless mutation. What you are talking about is how red cells in the equine can change their membrane permeability when faced with an acidic environment? If not, please elaborate.

I'm afraid that these observations have, to my knowledge, not been published.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

I'm afraid that these observations have, to my knowledge, not been published.

Hi Magistri Ludi,
It is always good to read your informative posts and this one was consistent with your past submissions.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

I'm afraid that these observations have, to my knowledge, not been published.

It was published here...

http://issuu.com/anderson-co/docs/na...er_fall2012/50

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Cratos

To imply that Trakus info is tedious to enter is false. The Trakus T-Charts can be copied and pasted into Excel and many other software programs easily and quickly.

Yes, Trakus do follow the traditional POC format for displaying race times, but given that Trakus gives both time and. distance between each POC other speed points can easily be calculated.

Trakus does not universally capture data from all of NA racetracks, but given that you are working with result charts that is not a major problem.

Lastly, with Equibase/DRF you are getting normalized race distance and virtual race time; in effect there isn't real HORSE performance time; only estimated time for the horse.

Per your comment above, I just tried to capture Trakus pasting it to Excel. It's possible but, our definition of tedious differs. I was able to paste etc. but, to make it into some usable format took a lot of effort. The copied format from the Trakus screen onto an Excel spreadsheet was very difficult (maybe even impossible) to work with. I had to make a lot of adjustments for one race (referencing cells then making the cells values).

I will say the info was very informative but I can't see doing a number of races this way.

Is there a short and easy method?

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Per your comment above, I just tried to capture Trakus pasting it to Excel. It's possible but, our definition of tedious differs. I was able to paste etc. but, to make it into some usable format took a lot of effort. The copied format from the Trakus screen onto an Excel spreadsheet was very difficult (maybe even impossible) to work with. I had to make a lot of adjustments for one race (referencing cells then making the cells values).

I will say the info was very informative but I can't see doing a number of races this way.

Is there a short and easy method?

I am sorry that you had trouble.

Therefore starting from “scratch” here is what I did using Trakus for today’s races at Santa Anita for an example:

1. Started my computer
2. Went to Trakus.com
3. Went to the T-Net menu on Trakus website
4. Clicked on Santa Anita
5. Open up Excel
6. Copied and pasted all 9 races with all summaries and all segments

TOTAL TIME 18 MINUTES AND I HAVE EXCEL FULL FUNCTIONALITY TO MANIPULATE THE DATA ANYWAY THAT I SEE FIT.

[Cratos]

Virtually all sports are measured or analyzed with the principles and laws of the science of physics.

However what make physics more useful to horseracing than to baseball, football, basketball, etc. is that the handicapping requirement in horseracing is about the measurement and relationship between the variables (all concepts in physics) of distance, speed/velocity, time, and weight to name a few.

This is not necessarily required with the other named sports.

It should be made clear that the tool to manipulate physics is math, particularly calculus.

Am I saying that you have to be a physicist, statistician, or mathematician to be a good handicapper? No I am not, but I am saying those attributes coupled with your knowledge of horseracing and gambling with sound mental toughness and discipline should move you up the ladder in the horserace handicapping world.

[classhandicapper]

Some brilliant stats guys believe that simple models often produce superior predictive results than complex ones.

Is there a point at which when you keep adding more information and more complex information that a lot of very tiny errors add up to less accurate output than a handful of simpler insights?

I've noticed that in my own handicapping from time to time.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Virtually all sports are measured or analyzed with the principles and laws of the science of physics.

However what make physics more useful to horseracing than to baseball, football, basketball, etc. is that the handicapping requirement in horseracing is about the measurement and relationship between the variables (all concepts in physics) of distance, speed/velocity, time, and weight to name a few.

This is not necessarily required with the other named sports.

It should be made clear that the tool to manipulate physics is math, particularly calculus.

Am I saying that you have to be a physicist, statistician, or mathematician to be a good handicapper? No I am not, but I am saying those attributes coupled with your knowledge of horseracing and gambling with sound mental toughness and discipline should move you up the ladder in the horserace handicapping world.

I wholeheartedly agree. If time wasn't such a finite commodity, I would be back in school furthering my formal education.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Some brilliant stats guys believe that simple models often produce superior predictive results than complex ones.

Is there a point at which when you keep adding more information and more complex information that a lot of very tiny errors add up to less accurate output than a handful of simpler insights?

I've noticed that in my own handicapping from time to time.

I don't understand what you mean by simple models vs. complex models. A model should be designed with "design intent"; what do you intend to achieve from your model?

There is always the "balancing act" between accuracy and precision. I prefer to be first accurate and later precise. My associates and me build parametric models that we expect to be accurate.

[Tom]

Calling Raybo.....Mr. Excel!

This is one of the Trakus screens......how would you handle the word head, the 1/2, the non racing info, if you were trying to copy ( not a an option on the drop down?

[whodoyoulike]

Tom,

I was also looking at the screens which showed the feet traveled at the POC. Info I think would be helpful in handicapping.

And, I tried Cratos' suggestion earlier and am still having Excel formatting problems. I haven't given up.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Tom,

I was also looking at the screens which showed the feet traveled at the POC. Info I think would be helpful in handicapping.

And, I tried Cratos' suggestion earlier and am still having Excel formatting problems. I haven't given up.

I will email you an example tomorrow, I don't think I have communicated clearly enough to you and I believe once you get the example we will communicate better.

[cj]

Importing into Excel was great in 1995. It is ok, but hardly ideal for a serious data analyzer.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Tom

Calling Raybo.....Mr. Excel!

This is one of the Trakus screens......how would you handle the word head, the 1/2, the non racing info, if you were trying to copy ( not a an option on the drop down?

I'm not in the habit of trying to copy and paste things off the web into Excel. But, if I wanted to try copying Trakus data, I would just select the whole Trakus display and paste it in Excel, then just use the portions that I need. I have no idea how one would handle the other stuff, other than just ignoring it once pasted, assuming the formatting for that data works out ok in Excel.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by cj

Importing into Excel was great in 1995. It is ok, but hardly ideal for a serious data analyzer.

Good in 1995? What are you talking about? Excel is just a canned stat program and its limitation is to the extent of the user's statistical acumen. Also it is the top spreadsheet on the market.

I am very good in statistics and. math; and I have yet to come across anything in the normal published horseracing data that I will need a SAS package.

Yes, my associates and me push the envelope with other packages and methodologies, but that is because of advanced statistics and math.