Cratos's thread about wind force

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by traynor

The speculative "adjustments" for the effect of wind speed and wind direction during a given race presuppose that accurate readings of such are available for the precise times at which each specific race was run. Unless such data accuracy is available, and suitably applied, the notion of adjustments for wind speed and direction are about as useful as astrology or numerology. Meaning--specifically--they "seem to work" just often enough to keep the faithful as true believers.

I think many who read the emphasis on wind speed and wind direction as factors may be trying to use data that lacks the degree of sophistication necessary for accurate adjustment. Unless specific wind speed and wind direction are known for the duration of the race in question, at track level, on the track, incorporating such data into the production of speed/pace figures may be less than useful. And that is on a really good day.

Yeah I agree with an awful lot of the above it's a very good point. I've taken readings at trackside and know how highly variable the measurements are, even just five seconds apart under gusty conditions, literally you can go from 5 mph to 25 that quickly. A device that would be useful here is one which could log the readings by the second at trackside and then have the ability to recall them later so an average could be taken during the appropriate pace segments.

Ever since taking my own wind readings I found it doubtful those who claim to get that type of information from 'near by' weather sites were going to derive anything useful from it. With that said, most of us know small changes in pace at certain points in a race can actually have a significant impact on final time. We also know that significant winds such as 20 mph which are very common at some tracks will move the first quarter split several fifths which is literally huge and impossible to ignore when trying to assess the impact.

When looking at the one turn mile for instance on a 20mph headwind day, pointless to even try to compare that with a 6f race on the same card using a 1-turn speed chart, the relationship between the distances is destroyed due to the extra quarter into the wind.

Someone ignoring wind on days like that and subsequently pulling times into software weeks later is going to be prone to reaching some poor conclusions.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Not really, I have no interest on this kind of a discussion... It seems though that you need to present some data to make your point more attractive and tangible to the real world, without it, it remains a very theoretical topic with a lot of question marks, covering not only the implementation of your ideas but how useful they might be for betting purposes...

Gee I am sorry that I didn't follow your rules; the schools which I attended taught me to be an independent thinker and I don't ever present something that hasn’t worked in the real world of horserace wagering and handicapping for me and my associates.

I don’t post to impress or attempt to impress: I just post right or wrong my understanding of the topic.

Hang in there, your rhetoric might catch on.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Although it is true that wind can definitely affect the timing of a race, I still do not believe that incorporating it to a speed figure calculator represents an (easy) achievable task.

Gathering relating data seems like a daunting process that is impossible to achieve without expensive devices and a very laborious effort.

More than this, I doubt that even if going through the hassle of gathering related wind data and incorporating to our calculations, will have any significant impact in the bottom line of any betting approach.

Track Variant definition does not represent a scientific process by any means and it more a mix of empirical estimates and (mostly) pseudo scientific methodologies (class pars been one of them).

I am not saying that calculating track variant and speed figures is useless or necessarily a bogus procedure, but that after a certain level, it does not make much of a difference to struggle for more precise estimates. Having a "relatively" good understanding of the fastness of the track (measured in approximately 0.5 sec increments) is enough for all our betting needs...

I think if one is going to live and die by their numbers they really ought to strive to leave no stone unturned. Someone who purchases Ragozin Sheets expects due diligence out of the staff to adjust for the conditions appropriately. That's why some people who bet heavily (e.g. Dahlman) have been willing to pay the price because the attitude of the staff has been to go the extra mile. Presumably Len could take wind out of the number and see the accuracy drop a point or two, otherwise why continue to bother.

With that said I agree as a one-man show, logging wind conditions is probably not going to be the best use of one's time, as a team effort though all of these smaller edges add up to a couple of points. What people think is minor in significance can (for those who have an approach build entirely around the numbers) actually be quite a sizable difference in practice.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Gee I am sorry that I didn't follow your rules; the schools which I attended taught me to be an independent thinker and I don't ever present something that hasn’t worked in the real world of horserace wagering and handicapping for me and my associates.

I don’t post to impress or attempt to impress: I just post right or wrong my understanding of the topic.

Hang in there, your rhetoric might catch on.

So, the schools you attended taught you to accept somebody's claims, just because he assures you that they worked for him and his associates?

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

So, the schools you attended taught you to accept somebody's claims, just because he assures you that they worked for him and his associates?

Please stop the nonsense, I don't know you personally and I would like to keep talking about horseracing. If not, my part on this subject is over and I will hopefully exchange ideas/opinions in the future on another horseracing topic.
.

[DLigett]

Cratos,

Send me a PM or e-mail if want to perhaps swap some data. I'll send you a sample.

Dan

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Please stop the nonsense,
.

I can say the same...

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I can say the same...

Good, I appreciate your politeness

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Good, I appreciate your politeness

Same here,,,

[Tom]

OK, now show us an example of how easy it is.
Calculate the effect on each horse in the Fountain of Youth run last weekend.

btw, how many points do you do for each horse? Obviously, the effect of wind is different on the backstretch and homestretch.

The floor is yours......

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Tom

btw, how many points do you do for each horse? Obviously, the effect of wind is different on the backstretch and homestretch.

And different on the front runners going into a head wind than the pressers tucked in behind and drafting them.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Clocker

And different on the front runners going into a head wind than the pressers tucked in behind and drafting them.

Since you raised issue I will comment by saying if you read my post I did state that we model the "wind effect" and through simulation you can account for much of this type of behavior.

I don't know if you are an engineering type, but the things that engineers can do with simulation in modeling is amazing.

I can hear the nay sayers from the peanut gallery shaking their heads, but I was around when Andy Beyer popularize the "speed methodology" and the disbelievers were out in force at that time. Also man went to the moon and there are still people today who don't believe it.

Horseracing is more to the science of physics than any of the other sports because it embodies weight, speed/velocity, distance, time and many other nuances of the science.

The problem here is that to understand all of this requires a good math background and some of us don't have such; and we become disbelievers.

There isn't anything that I can or want to say about that dilemma except to say to each his/ her own; it is your money and you wager as you see fit.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Since you raised issue I will comment by saying if you read my post I did state that we model the "wind effect" and through simulation you can account for much of this type of behavior.

I don't know if you are an engineering type, but the things that engineers can do with simulation in modeling is amazing.

I can hear the nay sayers from the peanut gallery shaking their heads, but I was around when Andy Beyer popularize the "speed methodology" and the disbelievers were out in force at that time. Also man went to the moon and there are still people today who don't believe it.

Horseracing is more to the science of physics than any of the other sports because it embodies weight, speed/velocity, distance, time and many other nuances of the science.

The problem here is that to understand all of this requires a good math background and some of us don't have such; and we become disbelievers.

There isn't anything that I can or want to say about that dilemma except to say to each his/ her own; it is your money and you wager as you see fit.

Please don't interpret this as an attempt on my part to always find disagreement with what you have to say...but I just can't persuade myself that there is conclusive proof out there that "horse racing is more to the science of physics than any of the other sports". More than WHAT other sports? Even the sports where the athletes can actually TALK, and tell us how they FEEL prior to the race or other athletic event that they are engaged in?

[Magister Ludi]

Aerodynamic drag calculations should be adjusted for deviations from STP (standard temperature and pressure). At STP, (sea level and 20C), air density is approximately 1.2 kg/m^3.

As an aside, there is another interesting effect of altitude. Horses have two types of red blood cells: rigid, and balloon-like. Horses with more balloon-like cells move blood into the muscles and the lungs more easily. On average, horses have 40% rigid and 60% fluid cells. Horses trained at high altitudes may have only 5% rigid cells and have a tremendous advantage. In one country in particular, a few successful trainers do their training at altitudes that are relatively much higher than that of their racing locations.

Mine That Bird and Canonero II were the biggest longshot upsets in Kentucky Derby history (except for Doneraile). They were both closers (Canonero from 18th, Mine That Bird from last place). Also, they were both trained at high altitudes before the race (Canonero - Venezuela, Mine That Bird - New Mexico).

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

As an aside, there is another interesting effect of altitude. Horses have two types of red blood cells: rigid, and balloon-like. Horses with more balloon-like cells move blood into the muscles and the lungs more easily. On average, horses have 40% rigid and 60% fluid cells. Horses trained at high altitudes may have only 5% rigid cells and have a tremendous advantage.




[/size]

As someone who is hematology trained, I really would love to check the facts on this one. Do you have the info. To create two types of red cells from the marrow would not be possible unless mutation. What you are talking about is how red cells in the equine can change their membrane permeability when faced with an acidic environment? If not, please elaborate.

On a side note, I was doing a morphology on a race mare that was not training well, looking for anemia. Horses have a low MCV or size of their cells, they lack a degree of central pallor which makes them very anemic if you don't know what you are looking at. Out the corner of my eye , I caught the hospital lead Hematology Director and Cancer MD. I felt evil for a minute and said "Hey Doc, can you come and look at this". She came over. I showed her the analyzer results and she about dropped. "Oh my god", is this person living". I shook my head and pointed her to look at the scope. She just about lost her mind. I let this go one for about another minute before I told her the truth. Thankfully she had a great since of humor and got a big kick out of it.
Most of the time when we called her over, was to show her a slide from one of her bad people cases and she was relieved to know that my filly "Olivia" was doing well and did not have anemia.