Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Capper Al
My speed figs can do at least as well as BRIS, but BRIS rr and cr reign supreme.
|
There may be things you are not considering. For example, explicitly defining a particular speed (or pace) scenario, and parsing a big block of races to see what happens (and what does NOT happen) enough times to make some kind of value judgement about applying that particular scenario as part of a wagering decision in an individual race. Lots of things that look good in small samples can (and usually will) cause disastrous results if considered "what really happens in the real world" and applied to (many) future races.
It is not so much the accuracy (of speed and pace figures) as the conceptual underpinnings (especially of "pace scenarios") that lead one astray. The easiest (and least humiliating) way to discover that is to apply your figures to a large block of races and compare the actual results with the expected results.
That is not advocacy of parsing huge databases for every aspect of decision making. It is advocacy of actively applying what one believes to be true on a large enough set of races to determine if it is anything more than a set of anomalies--slight wobbles from a baseline that only look good when viewed in isolation. As in, "I don't understand. It worked really well yesterday (last week, month, year)."
