While the East Coast is embracing for one of the worst cold snaps in recent history, things are beginning to heat up for the Class of 2015 and up for grabs this weekend are two 50 point races. Gulfstream will host the FOY and the Fairgrounds will have the Risen Star. Both races will be run at 1 1\16th miles on dirt.
Predicted Weather for Hallendale- Slightly overcast, Highs near 75, wind NW gusts to 15, slight chance of late afternoon rain amounts under .05-- 20%
As of this writing FLA is under freeze warnings and temps in 30's. Be worth watching Friday's card to see how dirt and turf will reveal any subtleties from the cold.
Gulfstream Park
11th Race. (C10) Post 5:30PM STAKES
The 73rd Running of The Besilu Fountain of Youth (Grade II)
Purse $400,000 Guaranteed 1 1/16 Miles
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 JUAN AND BINA (L) Delgado, G Castellano, J 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/juan+and+bina
Pedigree screams precocity and that has been the story so far. Liked slow miles at Calder and still seems to be a run off type. Being on rail must be on or near lead or risk being pinned on rail. Castellano will have to be on his best to get this home without tiring to fade late. Bullet work coming in may signal the thoughts on pace.
2 BLUEGRASS SINGER (L) Vitali, M Lopez, P 118
http://www.pedigreequery.com/bluegrass+singer
Bargain priced 2yo sale purchase has paid big dividends to owners. His juvenile speed is looking like it is backing up. Pretty sure Paco will send as the horse seems one dimensional. Breathing fire at the top of the stretch might be the undoing as the speed on his outside will be waiting to pounce much as last.
3 FRAMMENTO (L) Zito, N Velazquez, J 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/frammento
Qualifier in Mahmoud female line hailng from the Blue Hen mare Silver Fog who produced Silver Spoon-first filly win SA Derby. Love the fact that this is the 4th foal from a Golden Missile mare.Take a look at Golden Missile's female lineage
http://www.pedigreequery.com/golden+missile. Click on the 5th dam Sail Cloth and notice the inbreeding.Golden Missile, I will say it again has the potential to be a great broodmare sire. Having looked at catalog pages for some 20 years, I have become a bit of 3rd or 4th foal from a mare kind of guy. That being said, he looks like focus is the concern. Dawns shades and bullet and willing to forgive last. Bigger things down the road but should be more honest today. Bluegrass Stakes?
4 GORGEOUS BIRD (L) Wilkes, I Rosario, J 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/gorgeous+bird.
From the top Whitney family that brought you Birdstone. Wilkes has done a superb job with this guy. Blew out foes in N1x and goes to the Bigs for a shot. Owns a win at CD and Rosario sticks. Figures to get favorable pace but would need an effort that might not be prepped for. Top 4 finish and should get alot of race.
5 ITSAKNOCKOUT (L) Pletcher, T Saez, L 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/itsaknockout
Perfect 4x5 inbreeding to Buckpasser through females.X trail through Sire to Lassie Dear-family of AP Indy Summer Squall etc and through Dam through 5th dam Pass the Basket- family of Basket Weave. Love this family 3-i for professional racing ability ie Classic races and production of quality breeding animals. His allowance was hard to judge as it looked like a sprint race with searing fractions and he took the lead and drew of to win well. Can he rate the perfect trip outside. Think Saez might have the connection to ask this guy for a big one and get the points to provide flexibility going forward. The future is very bright for this guy.
6 FROSTED (L) McLaughlin, K Ortiz, Jr., I 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/frosted3
A pedigree of great breeding names such as Belmont, the Mabees of Ca, and now Darley have owned these lines. Stamina a plenty through 3rd dam by Roberto out of Prince John mare. Family of Fleet Lady and Midshipman. Draws a more favorable post will look to stay in contention while trying save a stretch run. Question his grit when the stretch run starts as others look to have something saved from last. Not trusting the Remsen as race going forward and see a regression today.
7 UPSTART (L) Violette, Jr., R Ortiz, J 122
http://www.pedigreequery.com/upstart15
Pedigree is actually quite cool in it's history. Traces back to the great Tesio bred Tofanella-ancestress of Ribot. Inbred this great mare through 5th dam. Love Flatter's female line and Touch Gold should have a bright future as a BS, but I wonder when the Housebuster part of Upstart kicks in and his speed backs off. Will go to post as a logical favorite and possible single in many P3 and P4's and rightly so. First sophomore effort crushed foes in Prep for today. Primary win candidate but will be tested today.
8 DANNY BOY (L) Romans, D Lanerie, C 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/danny+boy13
Pedigree screams turf and sprint. Family of Housebuster.Romans is decent with this angle but this looks a little tough on task. No recent form and a running style that looks to pick up pieces late. Could be a logical prep for something later as connections look might have Derby fever. 45 and change for the half could put him in exotics.
Blinkers On: Frammento; Frosted
Key Races Video
Holy Bull
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...y-bull-s-gr-ii
Gorgeous Bird
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...tionalClaiming
Itsaknockout
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...t-gp-on-1-4-15
How I use pedigrees when handicapping is more of a financial thing vs a aptitude idea. When looking at PP's for 3yo's, the first I look at the Sale price, the breeder and the owner. I like those things to match in a dollars and cents model. Does the sire and dam's production record justify the price at sale? Are the owners established at sales and not fresh meat for the big ticket setup. Does the trainers ROI and the quality of the pedigree agree. You don't see Pletcher with New Mexico breds and you have to question when a low number outfit gets a cheap Bernardini.
Once the pedigree makes sense in a financial sense, then I can look at aptitude but more as tool to predict what could be in unproven horses, not what should be in proven horses.
Hope this helps and will let folks chew on this while I regroup to look at the Risen Star next post. Trying to get a decent weather model for LA for Sat. Enjoy and and any discussion is welcome.