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02-17-2015, 07:26 PM
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#1
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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The Law of Independent Trials
I was reading about "the law of independent trials". Can anyone tell me with a "yes" or a "no" whether these 4 games are subject to
"the law of independent trials"? Thanks
Roulette
Poker
Horse Racing
Blackjack
example:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Roulette YES
Poker YES
Horse Racing YES
Blackjack NO
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__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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02-17-2015, 07:40 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,171
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I was reading about "the law of independent trials". Can anyone tell me with a "yes" or a "no" whether these 4 games are subject to
"the law of independent trials"? Thanks
Roulette
Poker
Horse Racing
Blackjack
example:
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Can a horse lose so badly to another horse repeatedly where the beaten horse is influenced in future races between them? Some horses like sandy tracks. Some like mud. Are they still independent trials?
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02-17-2015, 07:45 PM
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#3
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tucker6
Can a horse lose so badly to another horse repeatedly where the beaten horse is influenced in future races between them? Some horses like sandy tracks. Some like mud. Are they still independent trials?
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Interesting ideas. I don't know. What do you think?
How about the other games in question, does shuffling and surveillance make them all 'independent trial' games?
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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02-17-2015, 07:48 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,171
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To me, only roulette would be independent each spin. I can see the other games as not independent from event to event.
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02-17-2015, 08:06 PM
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#5
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tucker6
To me, only roulette would be independent each spin. I can see the other games as not independent from event to event.
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so
Roulette YES
Poker NO
Horse Racing NO
Blackjack NO
?
I'm not the card player that many of you are.
Also, quite interesting that you refer to Horse Racing as an "interdependent" game, Tucker.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 02-17-2015 at 08:17 PM.
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02-17-2015, 08:23 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,594
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I think poker would be a yes also. Every time the cards are dealt what happened previously has no effect on this hand. If 4 hands were dealt and in each hand one player was dealt 4 of a kind before any draw the 5th hand would have the exact same odds of another 4 of a kind being dealt.
Searching the web does mention craps and roulette but not poker so maybe I am in error
Last edited by 098poi; 02-17-2015 at 08:32 PM.
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02-17-2015, 08:48 PM
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#7
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I was reading about "the law of independent trials". Can anyone tell me with a "yes" or a "no" whether these 4 games are subject to
"the law of independent trials"? Thanks
Roulette
Poker
Horse Racing
Blackjack
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Is this a question of the trial outcomes of the game, or the winnings from each trial?
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02-17-2015, 08:53 PM
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#8
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 098poi
I think poker would be a yes also. Every time the cards are dealt what happened previously has no effect on this hand. If 4 hands were dealt and in each hand one player was dealt 4 of a kind before any draw the 5th hand would have the exact same odds of another 4 of a kind being dealt.
Searching the web does mention craps and roulette but not poker so maybe I am in error
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Which cards are dealt is independent, but how the hand is played is quite dependent on past events.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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02-17-2015, 09:03 PM
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#9
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Is this a question of the trial outcomes of the game, or the winnings from each trial?
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Whichever one you could make a case for.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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02-17-2015, 09:14 PM
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#10
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Whichever one you could make a case for.
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Unless you have identified a biased wheel in roulette, then it's the only game I say "yes".....BTW, where are you going with this?
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02-17-2015, 09:27 PM
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#11
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
BTW, where are you going with this?
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good feedback and new ideas
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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02-17-2015, 09:32 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,171
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Yes, roulette would be the only true independent game listed imo. The other three are influenced by past events from a gaming perspective.
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02-17-2015, 10:19 PM
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#13
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tucker6
Can a horse lose so badly to another horse repeatedly where the beaten horse is influenced in future races between them? Some horses like sandy tracks. Some like mud. Are they still independent trials?
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Could consecutive races on the same day's 'card' be dependent upon each other (interdependent) in any ways?
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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02-17-2015, 10:41 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,552
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Subject to the Law of Independent Trials
Roulette.....,,... YES
Poker........,,... YES
Horse Racing.... YES
Blackjack..... NOT YET 
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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02-17-2015, 10:45 PM
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#15
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Roulette.....,,... YES
Poker........,,... YES
Horse Racing.... YES
Blackjack..... NOT YET |
Poker and horse racing, yes?......A little explanation, if you will....
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