Class rankings

[SecretAgentMan]

MJ, surprised to see Upstart still at #1.......

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

MJ, surprised to see Upstart still at #1.......

I hear you. He always seems to show up and give a good account of himself against good competition, the computer likes that. I guess we'll see how it goes soon enough. The preps being over now I'll probably post just one more update at the end of the month as any changes should be minimal. Sounds like you're going to Frosted? He should be a nice price. I believe Upstart will be a nice price too. Nothing wrong with betting two horses in a field this size.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I hear you. He always seems to show up and give a good account of himself against good competition, the computer likes that. I guess we'll see how it goes soon enough. The preps being over now I'll probably post just one more update at the end of the month as any changes should be minimal. Sounds like you're going to Frosted? He should be a nice price. I believe Upstart will be a nice price too. Nothing wrong with betting two horses in a field this size.

can you explain this computer program and its past success rate?

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by nads1420

can you explain this computer program and its past success rate?

Hi nads. With respect to the Derby itself and this particular class ranking method I have unfortunately no history to share with you. The technique has been developed as the foundation for a black box method presently undergoing real-world testing. The numbers by themselves lose the take overall on flat bets, however I'm more concerned with accuracy for a foundation number and in that sense I'm satisfied. Over a 2500 race sample the top ranked class horse in the field wins at a 30% clip and second ranked 20%. In the Derby then you might say given the large field size one of the top two might end up winning this race 40% of the time or less? Just guessing.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Hi nads. With respect to the Derby itself and this particular class ranking method I have unfortunately no history to share with you. The technique has been developed as the foundation for a black box method presently undergoing real-world testing. The numbers by themselves lose the take overall on flat bets, however I'm more concerned with accuracy for a foundation number and in that sense I'm satisfied. Over a 2500 race sample the top ranked class horse in the field wins at a 30% clip and second ranked 20%. In the Derby then you might say given the large field size one of the top two might end up winning this race 40% of the time or less? Just guessing.

pretty cool. very interesting.. is Mubtaahij included or only domestic horses?

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by nads1420

pretty cool. very interesting.. is Mubtaahij included or only domestic horses?

Thanks nads. Only North America for now. I would truly love to expand it to international racing someday though because it would be a cool thing to have a global class ranking every week. It's a definite goal. Right now the day job calls unfortunately.

[MJC922]

1	Upstart
2	Materiality
3	Condo Commando
4	Firing Line
5	Carpe Diem
6	Dortmund
7	American Pharoah
8	Birdatthewire
9	Competitive Edge
10	Lady Eli
11	Eskenformoney
12	Barbados
13	Lovely Maria
14	Divining Rod
15	El Kabeir
16	I'm a Chatterbox
17	International Star
18	Frosted
19	Ready for Rye
20	Two Weeks Off
21	Calculator
22	Her Emmynency
23	Angela Renee
24	Blofeld
25	Taylor S
26	Saratoga Heater
27	Puca
28	Nasa
29	Stellar Wind
30	Lord Nelson
31	Far Right
32	Papacoolpapacool
33	Bolo
34	One Lucky Dane
35	Promise Me Silver
36	Gimme Da Lute
37	Holy Boss
38	Texas Red
39	Sunset Glow
40	War Story
41	Vision Perfect
42	Tencendur
43	A Lot
44	Daredevil
45	Jacks Escarpment
46	Ami's Flatter
47	Consumer Credit
48	Leave the Light On
49	Take Charge Brandi
50	Stanford
51	Danzig Moon
52	Souper Colossal
53	R Sassy Lass
54	Lassofthemohicans
55	Bustin It
56	Wisecracker
57	Nun the Less
58	Nonna's Boy
59	Luck of the Kitten
60	Danessa Deluxe
61	Pine Needles
62	Hootenanny
63	Wonder Gal
64	Oceanwave
65	Prospect Park
66	By the Moon
67	Catalina Red
68	Bluegrass Singer
69	Leap Year Luck
70	Mrs McDougal
71	Classy Class
72	Harvey
73	Woodwin W
74	Sarah Sis
75	Frammento
76	Bar of Gold
77	Conquest Typhoon
78	Shook Up
79	Luminance
80	West Coast Belle
81	Quality Rocks
82	Hillbilly Royalty
83	Dubai Sky
84	Keen Ice
85	Lady Shipman
86	Hard to Port
87	Fame and Power
88	Forever Unbridled
89	Startup Nation
90	Recount
91	Devine Aida
92	March
93	Cinco Charlie
94	Fond of Sarah
95	El Deal
96	Enchanting Lady
97	Abounding Legacy
98	Lawn Ranger
99	Silverpocketsfull
100	Conquest Eclipse

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Damn.

Itsaknockout and Ocho Ocho Ocho can't even crack the top 100.

[MJC922]

I hear you. Ocho was as high as 13th a couple of months ago, currently 145 with Itsaknockout 132.

[Capper Al]

The Debry is like the pro basketball draft. Predicting who is going to be great is next to impossible. I believe Michael Jordan was a second round pick.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The Debry is like the pro basketball draft. Predicting who is going to be great is next to impossible. I believe Michael Jordan was a second round pick.

Jordan was a 1st round pick, he was picked 3rd over all.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Jordan was a 1st round pick, he was picked 3rd over all.

Sam Bowie???!??!?!?!

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Sam Bowie???!??!?!?!

Bowie #2, Hakeem Olajuwon #1

Bowie was a joke in the NBA & Jordan became the vest ayer ever marketed & possibly to play the game.

[MJC922]

1	American Pharoah
2	Firing Line
3	Frosted
4	Dortmund
5	Materiality
6	Competitive Edge
7	Lovely Maria
8	Lady Eli
9	Carpe Diem
10	Danzig Moon
11	Barbados
12	Divining Rod
13	I'm a Chatterbox
14	International Star
15	Birdatthewire
16	Promise Me Silver
17	El Kabeir
18	Ready for Rye
19	Two Weeks Off
20	Calculator
21	Her Emmynency
22	Blofeld
23	Condo Commando
24	Saratoga Heater
25	A Lot
26	Nasa
27	Bolo
28	Stellar Wind
29	Angela Renee
30	Papacoolpapacool
31	One Lucky Dane
32	Eskenformoney
33	Far Right
34	Holy Boss
35	Texas Red
36	Curalina
37	Sunset Glow
38	Vision Perfect
39	Ocho Ocho Ocho
40	Consumer Credit
41	Shook Up
42	Daredevil
43	Leave the Light On
44	Ami's Flatter
45	Take Charge Brandi
46	London Tower
47	El Deal
48	Stanford
49	Souper Colossal
50	Lord Nelson
51	Wisecracker
52	Gimme Da Lute
53	World Approval
54	Bustin It
55	Nonna's Boy
56	Danessa Deluxe
57	Oceanwave
58	Include Betty
59	Lassofthemohicans
60	Prospect Park
61	Pine Needles
62	R Sassy Lass
63	A M Milky Way
64	Hootenanny
65	Spanish Queen
66	Catalina Red
67	Callback
68	Frammento
69	Woodwin W
70	Mrs McDougal
71	Wonder Gal
72	Harvey
73	Bar of Gold
74	Leap Year Luck
75	Ostrolenka
76	War Story
77	Divisidero
78	Luminance
79	Keen Ice
80	West Coast Belle
81	Recount
82	Yockey's Warrior
83	Hard to Port
84	Dubai Sky
85	Lady Shipman
86	Fame and Power
87	Cinco Charlie
88	Abounding Legacy
89	Startup Nation
90	Classy Class
91	Mr. Z
92	Danish Dynaformer
93	Fond of Sarah
94	By the Moon
95	Devine Aida
96	Lawn Ranger
97	Luck of the Kitten
98	Conquest Eclipse
99	Quality Rocks
100	Fantastic Style

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Over a 2500 race sample the top ranked class horse in the field wins at a 30% clip and second ranked 20%.

I'm not asking you to divulge too much here but what are you looking at?

1. class labels?
2. earnings?
3. entire record
4. recent race(s)
5. finish and beaten lengths?
6. speed and pace figures?

I am currently building a class performance rating system. At this stage I'm not trying to say who I think the class of the race is. I'm just trying to measure a single performance using factors other than fractions and final time. Then I am comparing my results to high quality speed figures to see how they compare in terms of win% and ROI. I've been pleasantly surprised by my results so far in a limited sample but surprisingly it is doing way better on dirt than turf.