Buckpasser in the X - Page 4 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

f2tornado · 03-02-2015, 07:30 AM

Buckpasser horses have been hot on the Derby trail this year. The following have won a stakes race as as a 3yo.

Royal Son (two paths of Buckpasser) just won the John Battaglia.
Itsaknockout/Upstart/(Frammento) - Your Buckpasser FOY trifecta.
Far From Over - Buckpasser plus Countess Wanda in tail female. Nice combo.
Lord Nelson - Got it and Red doesn't got it.
Ocean Knight - Buckpasser wins in Tampa.
Dubai Sky - Buckpasser wins on the Kittens Joy turf. Place horse also had.
Take Charge Brandi - Take charge Buckpasser.

Khozan - No stakes yet but will be tested in FL Derby.

Other notables:
Bayerd
Callback
Carpe Diem
Competitive Edge
Courtier
Eagle
Frosted
Gorgeous Bird
J S Bach
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Souper Colossal
The Truth or Else

SecretAgentMan · 03-10-2015, 03:47 PM

Like this angle a lot Sbcaris.......good to see you sharing this info.

Question: what do you make of Upstart/Its a knock outfinal time if 1:46 in the Fountain of Youth in Florida?

I can't remember seeing a slow time like this for horses on the road to the derby at Gulfstream. I know there was some blocking/bumping, but to be honest, I didn't see much violation by Upstart. I think Upstart wins in the Florida derby & I see he's on your angle list.

Dortmund reminds me of Point Given, which laid an egg in the KD & I expect an undefeated Dortmund do the same in the KD.

I also want to see how Firing Line performs at Sunland.

sbcaris · 03-13-2015, 12:38 PM

Secret Agent Man: I like Upstart and Itsaknockout along with several others with Buckpasser in the X: J S Bach, Far From Over, The Truth or Else, Sakima, etc etc.

There are actually over 500 horses that carry Buckpasser in the X and could be on the Derby trail. However, I am only interested in those that also finish well in a major 9 furlong prep race.

SecretAgentMan · 03-13-2015, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Secret Agent Man: I like Upstart and Itsaknockout along with several others with Buckpasser in the X: J S Bach, Far From Over, The Truth or Else, Sakima, etc etc.

There are actually over 500 horses that carry Buckpasser in the X and could be on the Derby trail. However, I am only interested in those that also finish well in a major 9 furlong prep race.

Gotcha......so its 2 parts to your angle. Well, let's see these horses run in the upcoming races & let's hope some good ones fit your angle.

sbcaris · 03-14-2015, 10:48 AM

Secret Agent Man: There are a multitude of horses with Buckpassser in the X passing position that cannot run fast and many of them never win a race in their entire careers. That is why I combine fast final fractions with Buck in the X. Throughout the history of the Derby there was ONLY one horse that ever finished in the money while carrying Buck in the X who DID NOT qualify on my final fraction time and that was Commanding Curve last year who ran second as a longshot. Last year alone in the Ky Derby there were 10 horses that carried Buckpasser in the X. Most of them did not belong in the race. 4 of these 10 ran a fast final 3/8 in a 9 furlong prep race. One of these 4 won the roses (California Chrome) and another ran fourth (Wicked Strong).

The other two ran out of the money: Ride On Curlin ran 7th in the Derby and then second in the Preakness. Wildcat Red finished 18th in the Derby. Not bad, from 4 qualifiers we get one winner and the fourth place finisher.

BlueChip@DRF · 03-14-2015, 11:06 AM

It is not a be all/end all angle. But combined with other handicapping aspects, it could narrow things down to an affordable bet.

SecretAgentMan · 03-14-2015, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

It is not a be all/end all angle. But combined with other handicapping aspects, it could narrow things down to an affordable bet.

No angle is 100%, but its nice to have these angles helping you handicap the derby.

BlueChip@DRF · 03-14-2015, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

No angle is 100%, but its nice to have these angles helping you handicap the derby.

These were definitely helpful in the exotics.

sbcaris · 03-14-2015, 01:01 PM

Secret Agent Man: I agree with you that no angle is 100% perfect. However, some are vastly superior to others. I found an angle last fall that gets Derby winners with an impact value over 6.00. This angle is fantastic and probably the strongest angle I ever developed to select Derby winners. In spite of its success (strong impact value and strong ROI over 100%) it still loses 6 out of every 10 Derbies. One might say thats bad news but if you win 4 of every 10 Derbies and have an ROI of more than 100% its hard to find fault with such a method.

You can burn the midnight oil for years and still you will never come up with any simple method that will give you 100% Derby winners.Anyone that tells you they hit the Derby 70 to 80% of the time by picking one or two horses per year are probably full of bologny. Its impossible to be that accurate year after year.

sammy the sage · 03-14-2015, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Secret Agent Man: I agree with you that no angle is 100% perfect. However, some are vastly superior to others. I found an angle last fall that gets Derby winners with an impact value over 6.00. This angle is fantastic and probably the strongest angle I ever developed to select Derby winners. In spite of its success (strong impact value and strong ROI over 100%) it still loses 6 out of every 10 Derbies. One might say thats bad news but if you win 4 of every 10 Derbies and have an ROI of more than 100% its hard to find fault with such a method.

You can burn the midnight oil for years and still you will never come up with any simple method that will give you 100% Derby winners.Anyone that tells you they hit the Derby 70 to 80% of the time by picking one or two horses per year are probably full of bologny. Its impossible to be that accurate year after year.

wrong....at least for now...I know of one who's 100%....published picks at that....hint..."whisper"...

sbcaris · 03-15-2015, 12:04 PM

Do you care to mention his name? That is the name of the guy that has a proven successful system that is correct 100% of the time for all Kentucky Derbies by selecting ONLY one or two horses per year?

That statement is pure BOLOGNY.

BlueChip@DRF · 03-15-2015, 12:06 PM

Hitting 1 out of 1 is still 100%.

MJC922 · 03-15-2015, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Do you care to mention his name? That is the name of the guy that has a proven successful system that is correct 100% of the time for all Kentucky Derbies by selecting ONLY one or two horses per year?

That statement is pure BOLOGNY.

Maybe it's this guy? http://insiderhorsepicks.com/?page_id=38841

sbcaris · 03-15-2015, 05:43 PM

Here is an interesting fact that shows the great influence of Buckpasser in the X passing position in this years running of the Rebel Stakes:

The second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth place finishers in this race all traced to Buckpasser in the X passing position. I do not know if any of these runners will actually mature enough to win the roses in May but they all carry Buckpasser in the X a proven handicapping factor for the KY Derby.

SecretAgentMan · 03-15-2015, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Here is an interesting fact that shows the great influence of Buckpasser in the X passing position in this years running of the Rebel Stakes:

The second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth place finishers in this race all traced to Buckpasser in the X passing position. I do not know if any of these runners will actually mature enough to win the roses in May but they all carry Buckpasser in the X a proven handicapping factor for the KY Derby.

SB, thanks for that stat but I don't like any of the horses that ran in the Rebel to win the KD.

Did Commanding Curve have the X in the Buck? I believe he did.......as did Chrome & I think Danza did as well.

What do you make of Firing Line next Sunday? Will he have enough races under his belt after getting some tough races vs Dortmund.