Buckpasser in the X

[sbcaris]

Turninforhome: You said the following:

"38 winners of 57 Derbys since 1954 well over 50% just from 3 broodmare sire lines. Direct female descendants back to War Admiral, Mahmoud and Blue Larkspur foundation mares"

I only found 16 that fit this description back to 1954. They were as follows:

I'll Have Another, Super Saver, Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, Sea Hero, Alysheba, Gato Del Sol, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Cannonade, Majestic Prince, Forward Pass, Northern Dancer, Iron Liege, Swaps, and Determine.

According to my math that's 26% of the winners of the roses since 1954 which is a period of 61 years. 16 divided by 61 equals 26%.

Could you please explain where you came up with 38 winners since 1954 that traced to one of these above 3 broodmare sires in tail female?

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Turninforhome: You said the following:

"38 winners of 57 Derbys since 1954 well over 50% just from 3 broodmare sire lines. Direct female descendants back to War Admiral, Mahmoud and Blue Larkspur foundation mares"

I only found 16 that fit this description back to 1954. They were as follows:

I'll Have Another, Super Saver, Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, Sea Hero, Alysheba, Gato Del Sol, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Cannonade, Majestic Prince, Forward Pass, Northern Dancer, Iron Liege, Swaps, and Determine.

According to my math that's 26% of the winners of the roses since 1954 which is a period of 61 years. 16 divided by 61 equals 26%.

Could you please explain where you came up with 38 winners since 1954 that traced to one of these above 3 broodmare sires in tail female?

Ok , 16 are direct female decedents, the rest are by stallions that come from those female lines. So the data is misleading and I apologize. So what you have is 16 direct female relatives and 22 were from stallions that came from the female lines. The bottom line that I was trying to get at here is the dominance and classical performances that these lines are capable of. When looking for Derby winners these lines demand attention.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

Ok , 16 are direct female decedents, the rest are by stallions that come from those female lines. So the data is misleading and I apologize. So what you have is 16 direct female relatives and 22 were from stallions that came from the female lines. The bottom line that I was trying to get at here is the dominance and classical performances that these lines are capable of. When looking for Derby winners these lines demand attention.

In my defense and what my original data was intent on proving that attributing the derby winner to a sire line could be taken a step further in that those sire lines responsible for derby winners were also from the famous female lines of War Admiral, Blue Larkspur, Mahmoud and later Princequillo. So while we have been talking about the Raise A Native sire line and it's impact, all of the impact of the RAN line has been because of the female lines.
Majestic Prince- Mahmoud
Alydar-Blue Larkspur
Mr Prospector-Blue Larkspur
Affirmed-Mahmoud

[sbcaris]

Turninforhome: Are you aware of the amazing fact that in last years Derby every one of the 19 starters trace to either War Admiral, Mahmoud or Blue Larkspur in the X passing position by way of either the first, second, third, or fourth damsire or one of the females in tail female.

The impact value for your method which if I read it correctly states the horse must trace to WA, Ma, or BL either directly by way of a tail female descendent or a stallion that traces to one of the three greats above in the X passing position.

Here is just a rundown of the first 10 finishing positions of last years Derby:

California Chrome has WA and BL by way of Not For Love his broodmare sire
Commanding Curve has WA and BL by way of Lion Hearted his broodmare sire
Danza has Blue Larkspur by way of French Deputy his broodmare sire
Wicked Strong has WA and BL by way of With Approval, second damsire
Samraat has BL by way of dog blessed in tail female
Dance with Fate has WA by way of Saint Ballado the bms
Ride on Curlin has WA and BL by way of Seeking the Gold, the second damsire
Medal Count has Ma by way of Northern Dancer, 3rd damsire
Chitu has WA and BL by way of AP Indy his bms
We Miss Artie has Ma via Fusaichi Pegasus his bms
General a Rod has Ma via Dynaformer his bms
Intense Holiday has Ma via Unbridled Song his bms
Candy Boy has Ma via Flying Sensation his second or third damsire
Uncle Sigh has Ma via Pine Bluff his bms
Tapiture has WA and BL by way of Private Account his second or third damsire
Harrys Holiday has BL by way of his bms Orientate
Vinceremos has WA and BL by way of More than Ready his bms
Wildcat Red has WA and BL by way of Miners Mark his bms
Vicars in Trouble has WA and BL by way of Vicar his bms

This angle if I am using it properly offers no value at all since the percentage of starters carrying it is probably near 100% based on the starters in the 2014 Ky Derby.

[turninforhome10]

Well lets get back to your angle. See Got Lucky in Todays 4th at GP
How about the Buckpasser. http://www.pedigreequery.com/got+lucky2
Does this horse qualify under your system?
See Numbered Account and notice the x-trail relation between Busanda, Iron Reward, and Striking. Pretty solid. Is it any wonder Numbered Account is very useful in pedigrees, especially when bred back in siblings. Got Lucky has one of the best pedigrees going for fillies right now. And ironically her full brother was a claimer that was gelded and last was running for 12.5k tag. There is also a unraced 2012 1/2 sister by Smart Strike that might be worth checking out.

[sbcaris]

Turninforhome: First of all one of my indicators for the Ky Derby is what I call my Buckpasser angle. That indicator requires a 3 year old to carry Buckpasser in the X passing position who also runs a final 3/8 of a major 9 furlong prep race on dirt in 37 4/5 seconds or less. This indicator has an extraordinary impact value of 3.67 and an ROI of close to 100%. Its a powerful tool for selecting Derby Winners, Preakness Winners and Belmont Winners.

The horse you mentioned Got Lucky is a 4 year old filly. There will be No Derby trail for that one. (She does have Buck in the X and the strong conduit mare, Doxa in tail female by way of Numbered Account).

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Turninforhome: First of all one of my indicators for the Ky Derby is what I call my Buckpasser angle. That indicator requires a 3 year old to carry Buckpasser in the X passing position who also runs a final 3/8 of a major 9 furlong prep race on dirt in 37 4/5 seconds or less. This indicator has an extraordinary impact value of 3.67 and an ROI of close to 100%. Its a powerful tool for selecting Derby Winners, Preakness Winners and Belmont Winners.

The horse you mentioned Got Lucky is a 4 year old filly. There will be No Derby trail for that one. (She does have Buck in the X and the strong conduit mare, Doxa in tail female by way of Numbered Account).

Gotcha, sorry for the thread sidetracked and look forward to reading going forward.

[raybo]

I keep seeing "x passing position" in these threads, but so far (unless I am blind or can't read) have not seen it explained anywhere in this thread. I would appreciate an explanation of that.

[sbcaris]

Raybo: send me your email address and I will send you my article on Buckpasser in the X for the Derby which was published last May 2014. In that article I have explained it in detail.

One problem could arise. If you do not have microsoft word, you cannot open the article because it was done in microsoft word. Let me know if you want the article and you do have microsoft word on your computer.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

Sbcaris, how can you not be doing cartwheels over Itsaknockout, Win loose or draw this horse, god willing and the creek don't rise, we will be talking about in about 7 to 12 years from now just like Buckpasser. Wow http://www.pedigreequery.com/itsaknockout

Closed X-trail double copy stallion prospect. Get your share now.
Trivia----- Where is the pedigree a product of Greentree? My favorite breeder.

Guess it works for other races also. Huh...I am a little excited.

[sbcaris]

Turninforhome: You said that we will be talking about this horse down the road just like Buckpasser.

Itsaknockout is surely a nice horse at this time but to to think we will be talking about him in the same way we know hold Buckpasser in high accolades is unrealistic and highly unlikely. Buckpasser was HOY and leading broodmare sire four times. His influence by way of his daughters has been tremendous.

Its delusionary to aggrandize Itsaknockout at this time as the next coming of Buckpasser.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Turninforhome: You said that we will be talking about this horse down the road just like Buckpasser.

Itsaknockout is surely a nice horse at this time but to to think we will be talking about him in the same way we know hold Buckpasser in high accolades is unrealistic and highly unlikely. Buckpasser was HOY and leading broodmare sire four times. His influence by way of his daughters has been tremendous.

Its delusionary to aggrandize Itsaknockout at this time as the next coming of Buckpasser.

What I said was we Could be talking about, difference. It is nice to dream as this is where all Buckpasser's come from, the dream. I am speaking purely for the fans. If the blood and performance is there, the sky, which is relative, is the limit. Only 30% of these great animals ever make their owner a dime. When you get into the 3%'s "consider them champions until they prove you different" -Quote John Ward trainer of Monarchos. Just practicing the mantra of one of my favorite trainers. He will probably break my heart, but for right now he bought me a ski trip and lodging for myself and my daughter. So........[YT="Knockout"]vimZj8HW0Kg[/YT]

[Stoleitbreezing]

The FOY was such a weirdly run race. As it turned out, it was more what happened to others that propelled him to victory then what itsaknockout did on his own.

Gorgeous Bird never fired and Frosted gave way in a very strange stretch run. I've watched the replay of the race several times especially before the controversial DQ. itsaknockout had to be scrubbed on coming out of the far turn and didn't look very good at all through the stretch. Watch the reply again, it amazes me he was there at the wire how early the jock had to ask him and how he responded. He's not a horse I want having seen this and being lightly raced. I have little confidence he can go 10 furlongs and I can't accept his ability on its own until he can prove he can do it outside of the biased quirky track at GF. Which we won't know until derby day as he's unlikely to ship. I also felt Upstart didn't do enough to come down as I thought the contact was minor and itsaknockout didn't appear to be ever be going by him. Maybe he shows me something different in the Florida Derby, but I think the best horses are out West this year yet again.

[raybo]

I'm not willing to project Itsaknockout as the "next coming", but in my opinion, it was clear that he would have passed, or at least headed Upstart before the interference. He started a long, rather early run and was coming very strongly in early stretch until he suddenly veered to his left, behind Upstart, and had to gather himself for another run at the leader, and then the interference occurred. Whether or not there was actual contact is beside the point, to me. Upstart came right into his path causing him to steady and by that time the jockey knew it was too late so he simply cruised to the wire, while Upstart was still under the whip. It seemed clear to me that had he not veered left and had to gather himself, he would have passed, or at least headed Upstart before the interference. What would have happened after that I can't say, Upstart may have still prevailed.

The fact that Itsaknockout started his run so early, and made up so much ground in the stretch, tells me that if he starts his run a bit later he can go 10f, without problem. I feel Upstart may be better than Itsaknockout at this point, but that could change by Derby time, if they both get there, only Danny Boy was really 3 years old at the time of the race. These horses are all still learning and still developing.

Itsaknockout certainly has the pedigree to get 10f easily, and nothing I saw in this race suggests he can't.

[sbcaris]

There are many 3 year olds on the trail this year that have the potential to become great thoroughbreds. Unfortunately, only a minuscule percentage of all horses ever actualize that potential and become greats like Buckpasser, Secretariat, Dr. Fager, Seattle Slew, AP Indy etc

Right now some of the potential stars on the Derby trail in my opinion are as follows:

Far From Over- undefeated in two starts so far.
Khozan----------undefeated in two starts so far.
Itsaknockout----undefeated in three starts so far.
Ocean Knight----undefeated in two starts so far.
Upstart--------the winner of the Holy Bull and DQ'd in the FOY has never run a bad race and looked very impressive in the Holy Bull.
J S Bach-------has won one of two starts and was very impressive in his maiden win which he won handily.

Naturally I left out some horses on the trail that have not yet made their 3 year old debut. These could also make a lot of noise in the next few months.

Any of the above have the potential to develop into real strong contenders for the Derby and there is an outside longshot chance that one or two may even contest for HOY later on. However, these dreams can often be very disappointing. How many of the above will even make the KY Derby starting gate? How many of the above will run poorly when tested for class and fall off the trail? How many of the above will get injured and be put on the shelf for 6 months or more? (remember Calculator). How many of the above will find the pressure too much and will not be able to run well against the best runners that enter the gate for the all important 9 furlong prep races-Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, Arkansas Derby and Wood Memorial- which gives rise to Ky Derby winners year after year for the most part.

The pressure to win Americas most famous race is tremendous and racing fans probably put too much emphasis on them. Many horses that win the roses never win another race. The minor injuries to Dr. Fager and Buckpasser were a blessing in disguise. Would they have ever become Horses of the Year if they ran in all three legs of the Triple Crown? It is possible that they would have still become great legends;but it is also possible that the wear and tare of the Triple Crown events could have prevented that from happening.