black box

[green80]

Does anyone use any "black box" type software that gives decent results?

[ldiatone]

there is no black box..all tools..buy one-learn it-use it go back and review the last few years of the http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/f...splay.php?f=94

[Pensacola Pete]

Originally Posted by green80

Does anyone use any "black box" type software that gives decent results?

I have one that generates about 1,500 plays per year over all tracks, has a success percentage of about 21-23%, and an ROI of 1.05 to 1.07.

Now all you need to do is give me a good reason (I decide if it's a good reason) why I should share it, and it's yours.

That's the whole point. Anybody who has a black box that's profitable would be a fool to give it to anybody else. As soon as others have it, the selections get hammered, and the ROI drops below profitability.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete

I have one that generates about 1,500 plays per year over all tracks, has a success percentage of about 21-23%, and an ROI of 1.05 to 1.07.

Now all you need to do is give me a good reason (I decide if it's a good reason) why I should share it, and it's yours.

That's the whole point. Anybody who has a black box that's profitable would be a fool to give it to anybody else. As soon as others have it, the selections get hammered, and the ROI drops below profitability.

I live in a state where there's no legal access to an ADW, so I must play at an "offshore" non-comingled book...Ready to play let's make a deal?

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete

I have one that generates about 1,500 plays per year over all tracks, has a success percentage of about 21-23%, and an ROI of 1.05 to 1.07.

Now all you need to do is give me a good reason (I decide if it's a good reason) why I should share it, and it's yours.

That's the whole point. Anybody who has a black box that's profitable would be a fool to give it to anybody else. As soon as others have it, the selections get hammered, and the ROI drops below profitability.

Is this on harness races or the dogs? From one of your previous posts I am led to believe this is not thoroughbreds.

BTW, impressive!

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete

I have one that generates about 1,500 plays per year over all tracks, has a success percentage of about 21-23%, and an ROI of 1.05 to 1.07.

Now all you need to do is give me a good reason (I decide if it's a good reason) why I should share it, and it's yours.

That's the whole point. Anybody who has a black box that's profitable would be a fool to give it to anybody else. As soon as others have it, the selections get hammered, and the ROI drops below profitability.

I didn't think he was looking to buy a black box. But, just looking for info on what it does or not do.

[green80]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I didn't think he was looking to buy a black box. But, just looking for info on what it does or not do.

You are correct. I just wanted to see if anybody had one that was successful. There are dozens for sale on the internet and I doubt if any show a profit long term.

As far as Pensacola Pete, if he has a profitable black box, he could sell it to a hundred people and most would figure out a way to lose money with it. In theory it may hurt you to share a winning method, but in real life it hardly has any effect on the mutual prices. Give 10 guys a winner at the track and then listen to all the reasons why they didn't make money with it.

[dlivery]

What about if we put some hair on the box will this help

[098poi]

Originally Posted by green80

You are correct. I just wanted to see if anybody had one that was successful. There are dozens for sale on the internet and I doubt if any show a profit long term.

As far as Pensacola Pete, if he has a profitable black box, he could sell it to a hundred people and most would figure out a way to lose money with it. In theory it may hurt you to share a winning method, but in real life it hardly has any effect on the mutual prices. Give 10 guys a winner at the track and then listen to all the reasons why they didn't make money with it.

Good one!!!!

[green80]

Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete

I have one that generates about 1,500 plays per year over all tracks, has a success percentage of about 21-23%, and an ROI of 1.05 to 1.07.

Now all you need to do is give me a good reason (I decide if it's a good reason) why I should share it, and it's yours.

That's the whole point. Anybody who has a black box that's profitable would be a fool to give it to anybody else. As soon as others have it, the selections get hammered, and the ROI drops below profitability.

Pete,

As soon as I come up with a good reason, I'll let you know. I have always heard that that there was no such thing as a profitable black box, but I have one that looks like it will work. I have just been using it for about 6 months and just under 1000 races and it is showing profits similar to yours on select win bets. I am still trying to overcome the learning curve on which selections to wager on.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by green80

Pete,

As soon as I come up with a good reason, I'll let you know. I have always heard that that there was no such thing as a profitable black box,but I have one that looks like it will work. I have just been using it for about 6 months and just under 1000 races and it is showing profits similar to yours on select win bets. I am still trying to overcome the learning curve on which selections to wager on.

Really?? Let's us all know how you make out after a year......

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by green80

Pete,

As soon as I come up with a good reason, I'll let you know. I have always heard that that there was no such thing as a profitable black box, but I have one that looks like it will work. I have just been using it for about 6 months and just under 1000 races and it is showing profits similar to yours on select win bets. I am still trying to overcome the learning curve on which selections to wager on.

If it was a true 'BLACK BOX", there would be no learning curve. There would be no decisions to be made by you, other than, how much to bet on the selections. The whole point of a "BLACK BOX", is to do away with decision making. There are a lot of programs out there that can be profitable, it's the decision making that makes them losers. JMHO

[green80]

Originally Posted by dartman51

If it was a true 'BLACK BOX", there would be no learning curve. There would be no decisions to be made by you, other than, how much to bet on the selections. The whole point of a "BLACK BOX", is to do away with decision making. There are a lot of programs out there that can be profitable, it's the decision making that makes them losers. JMHO

THe program I use ranks the contenders in every race. It assigns them a numerical value of 1-100. Maybe not a true black box. It does not tell you which horses or races to play. I play those of the contenders that have the highest post time odds. It has been consistent in producing long priced horses. I would like a program that takes all the decision making out, but this is the best I can come up with.

[TonyMLake]

Didn't we just have this exact thread, with the exact same title, about a month or three ago?

I got in trouble in that thread...

I'm satisfied that my application is successful enough for me. I haven't been as accurate or diligent at record keeping as many people here, but I haven't added money to my TVG account for a few years.

Thing was, my app didn't meet the definition of "black box" by the heavy hitters here on the board. Another complaint is that it's kind of top heavy (focuses too much on the most recent races). There's not a lick of Trainer/Jockey % in it, so, you'll have to spend some time on that. I can name a few other complaints, but a good number of people use my Windows and Android app - and that's in the thousands.

I used to say my app was free, but I got in trouble for saying that, too, because even though the Windows version is completely 100% free, I do charge .99 for the Android version just because it took so much work to get it to import Brisnet and JCapper files. There's a lot of flavors of "Android" out there.

For me, it's all a matter of STAYING OUT of races you aren't right about without being a chalk player, which, I guess is just another way of saying "Find those overlays".

It is kind of a bitch to walk away anything but even at tracks with the big big takeout, and I pray to God that Brisnet starts putting the International tracks into American Style Past Performance data files... THAT IS GOING TO MAKE MY WHOLE YEAR.

[TonyMLake]

It's easy to write a program so that it can choose which races will likely include a good bet.. but as for choosing what that bet is - well, that's a different issue.

For example, one problem with having the program just name the bet for you (1 betting unit on the 4 horse to place) is that the program can't see the tote board or pools - and that's important.

Now, Thanks to Patsy, I am actually writing an application so that it CAN see the tote board... and many people on this very board have done similar things with Excel and other tools. But I have a *lot* of concerns about associating the part of the program that can see the tote board with my main application, since so many people use the Windows version of my app, I assume the company whose tote board my program is learning to look at would not appreciate the speed with which my program looks at the tote board. I need to have some discussions with their tech people about just what is acceptable and what is not.

Of course, if I had a pretty realistic morning line, I could PREDICT a good bet, but that's not the same thing.

I guess that for me, it can all be done - but choosing which races have likely good bets in them is not the same as actually saying what that bet is. And releasing an application to the public that can see the tote board for 30 race tracks and look for betting pool inefficiencies in the place and show pools while simultaneously looking for good Kelly bets might get a programmer in trouble with the tote board provider.

And how do you implement it without seeing the tote board? If the program predicts a horse is going to be a sure thing... do we have a kelly criterion bet if the horse is going off at 7-2 when the program is hitting 24.55% winners? If the horse goes off odds on at 2-5 is the show bet better then a place bet? We HAVE to see the pools and analyze them.

These issues are not insurmountable, and somebody has definitely already done all this. Eventually, I will, as well. But could I release such an app to the public? NOT without a tote board provider willing to release their data for free. That tote also has to be updated for each pool at each track say every 20-30 seconds. If I have 3000 Windows users, that right there becomes an issue.