Horses weight as handicapping factor

[cj]

Originally Posted by Cratos

I don't doubt your experience at Freehold, but the science and the practice supports the evidence that the weight of the animal is essential in determining its fitness for a good performance.

Therefore the real question should not be why "weight" matter, but why the racetracks are not collecting or urging the data providers to collect it and provide it to the bettors with the rest of the data they currently provide to the bettors.

I'm all for giving the information, as much as possible. Maybe it would be beneficial, maybe not, but we won't know until we have it.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Over the Christmas period my weight went up. I'm definitely slower in January.

(Intuitively, I'm inclined to think that knowing a horse's weight is next to useless, unless you know the weight that it was when it turned in an optimal performance.)

You are correct, but if the data providers were collecting the horse's weight data historically you would get the "pattern" you are seeking.

Incidentally, single points of any data are never good predictors.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Over the Christmas period my weight went up. I'm definitely slower in January.

(Intuitively, I'm inclined to think that knowing a horse's weight is next to useless, unless you know the weight that it was when it turned in an optimal performance.)

That was the thing at Freehold, they gave you the weight today and for past races, so you could compare. The horses raced every week and you'd still see big fluctuations from week to week, both up and down, and didn't seem to matter in regards to performance. Maybe thoroughbreds are different.

That is why I asked if anyone here has actually studied the weights on horses in Hong Kong or elsewhere. That data is out there. Telling me what it should mean doesn't help me much if it doesn't play out in real life.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by cj

That was the thing at Freehold, they gave you the weight today and for past races, so you could compare. The horses raced every week and you'd still see big fluctuations from week to week, both up and down, and didn't seem to matter in regards to performance. Maybe thoroughbreds are different.

That is why I asked if anyone here has actually studied the weights on horses in Hong Kong or elsewhere. That data is out there. Telling me what it should mean doesn't help me much if it doesn't play out in real life.

What the weight will tell you immediately if the calculations are done correctly is the energy expenditure by the horse during the race with respect to time and distance.

Somewhere on this forum I have posted an Excel spreadsheet that would make such calculations

[Tom]

The fact that you joke about it Tom, does not really bother me as much as the apathy for an industry that does not really believe that it actually can change.

What can you do but joke about it.
Surely t-bred racing deserves no respect from its customers?
How many years has it been since Beyer wrote about bad timing at Gulfstream and yet they STILL haven't figured it out. And on Tuesdays, with three tacks running, they overlay post times.

Come on, there is a reason the game is treated like a minor league sport - it is. And it will never be anything more.

The people in charge are minor league -this is as good as it will ever be.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Cratos

You are correct, but if the data providers were collecting the horse's weight data historically you would get the "pattern" you are seeking.

Incidentally, single points of any data are never good predictors.

And from a trainers perspective, the pattern is the target. When the horse "is dead right". This is when you sigh a little relief and want to find a race suitable for optimum effort. When you " have them right where you want them".

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Tom

What can you do but joke about it.
Surely t-bred racing deserves no respect from its customers?
How many years has it been since Beyer wrote about bad timing at Gulfstream and yet they STILL haven't figured it out. And on Tuesdays, with three tacks running, they overlay post times.

Come on, there is a reason the game is treated like a minor league sport - it is. And it will never be anything more.

The people in charge are minor league -this is as good as it will ever be.

If U.S. racing could ever, truly present a product totally aboveboard with a focus on presenting each animal with full disclosure of all relevant data that would be required for purchasing the animal as a claim, the money generated in sales tax alone would begin to help the players present a better argument for reduced takeout and more thorough data.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Tom

You're looking to put a scale in the paddock?

The ones I've seen don't take up very much space and could handle weights I believe were in the 5k or 10k range.

As turninforhome10 mentioned, you'd need a historical trend to determine an acceptable weight range. I briefly reviewed the HK PP's but they showed the weights by horse on separate individual pages. I found it difficult going back and forth between horses. I'd have preferred it presented as PP's which I was more familiar.

As for CJ's comment, the weights were all over the place that really surprises me because I agree with Cratos' and some of the others comments.

Right now, the only ones with info on whether a horse is "off their feed" is the barn connections. Now, if they would come out before a race and say "I'm not betting XX because he's not eating" it might help me.

[Cratos]

H

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

The ones I've seen don't take up very much space and could handle weights I believe were in the 5k or 10k range.

As turninforhome10 mentioned, you'd need a historical trend to determine an acceptable weight range. I briefly reviewed the HK PP's but they showed the weights by horse on separate individual pages. I found it difficult going back and forth between horses. I'd have preferred it presented as PP's which I was more familiar.

As for CJ's comment, the weights were all over the place that really surprises me because I agree with Cratos' and some of the others comments.

Right now, the only ones with info on whether a horse is "off their feed" is the barn connections. Now, if they would come out before a race and say "I'm not betting XX because he's not eating" it might help me.

A very insightful post and each bettor who is wagering his/her money deserves to have the best info available or info that could be made available about the horse's fitness before the race.

[Tom]

We deserve a lot more than we get today.
I do not see it getting any better ever.
Racing is not a game with a great future.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Cratos

H
A very insightful post and each bettor who is wagering his/her money deserves to have the best info available or info that could be made available about the horse's fitness before the race.

I don't there is much place for "deserves" in a market-driven economy. People tend to get what they are willing to pay for. If they are willing to pay for inaccurate, incomplete information, there is little motivation for anyone to provide anything else.

If everyone stopped betting (and stopped buying the incomplete and inaccurate information currently available) because they believe they deserve better information, the situation would change rapidly. Until then, comments about what bettors "deserve" have little or no relevance.

If one does not like the product(s) as offered, one can always choose not to buy. It is really as simple as that.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by traynor

I don't there is much place for "deserves" in a market-driven economy. People tend to get what they are willing to pay for. If they are willing to pay for inaccurate, incomplete information, there is little motivation for anyone to provide anything else.

If everyone stopped betting (and stopped buying the incomplete and inaccurate information currently available) because they believe they deserve better information, the situation would change rapidly. Until then, comments about what bettors "deserve" have little or no relevance.

If one does not like the product(s) as offered, one can always choose not to buy. It is really as simple as that.

I enjoy reading your posts ( and I am not patronizing you),because you are a good writer and typically writes with cogitation about the subject matter.

However on this one, your criticism of my usage of the word "deserves" departed from your normal wit and intellect.

[Tom]

The game would never draw enough to people support it at higher prices.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Cratos

I enjoy reading your posts ( and I am not patronizing you),because you are a good writer and typically writes with cogitation about the subject matter.

However on this one, your criticism of my usage of the word "deserves" departed from your normal wit and intellect.

Traynor is an excellent writer...and -- as excellent writers do -- he chooses his words very carefully. He didn't criticize your "usage" of the word deserves; he questioned whether what a horseplayer thinks he "deserves" has anything to do with what he ultimately GETS. If we horseplayers REALLY "deserve" to have better handicapping information available to us, then we should take active steps in demanding that such information become available. Otherwise...we don't really "deserve" ANYTHING.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by traynor

I don't there is much place for "deserves" in a market-driven economy. People tend to get what they are willing to pay for. If they are willing to pay for inaccurate, incomplete information, there is little motivation for anyone to provide anything else.

If everyone stopped betting (and stopped buying the incomplete and inaccurate information currently available) because they believe they deserve better information, the situation would change rapidly. Until then, comments about what bettors "deserve" have little or no relevance.

If one does not like the product(s) as offered, one can always choose not to buy. It is really as simple as that.

I think you've taken Cratos' use of the word out of context.

And, "cogitation" is not exactly the word I would've used.