Horses weight as handicapping factor

[Cratos]

The horse's weight is the single most important variable in determining its fitness for a peak performance.

There are very good formulas which have been used for calculating a horse's energy use with respect to its performance.

The weight of a horse should be taken at time of the horse's race entry submission and verified again when the horse is brought to the paddock for saddling.

A major benefit to the bettors is the recognition of possible ill health or poor fitness of the horse.

No, revealing the weight of the horse to the betting public is not an assurance that the horse is fit for the race, but by doing so the bettors will have some measurement of the horse's health given publicly by the horse's connections.

[Tom]

The weight of a horse should be taken at time of the horse's race entry submission and verified again when the horse is brought to the paddock for saddling.

You're looking to put a scale in the paddock?

[BIG49010]

Remington Park did it back about the time of their plastic track, I remember them talking about it on a TV broadcast. Equitrack was that what their poly was called?

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Cratos

The horse's weight is the single most important variable in determining its fitness for a peak performance...

A major benefit to the bettors is the recognition of possible ill health or poor fitness of the horse...

This is what I was also thinking but, I'm uncertain whether it's the most important variable. I think Ainslie even mentioned something like this in the first handicapping book I ever read. I recall authors noting that if you were aware whether horses were "off their feed" that would be very good info.

Any trainers or other connections want to comment?

Thanks,

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

This is what I was also thinking but, I'm uncertain whether it's the most important variable. I think Ainslie even mentioned something like this in the first handicapping book I ever read. I recall authors noting that if you were aware whether horses were "off their feed" that would be very good info.

Any trainers or other connections want to comment?

Thanks,

I wasn't attempting to be dramatic with my assertion and I don't believe that was your assertion.

However I do believe whether it is an animal-being or human-being, weight fluctuation is a significant variable in determining physical performance.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Cratos

I wasn't attempting to be dramatic with my assertion and I don't believe that was your assertion.

However I do believe whether it is an animal-being or human-being, weight fluctuation is a significant variable in determining physical performance.

Coming from both the people and animal side on this, I could not agree more.
Weight stability and the ability to retain and even gain weight during training is a strong indicator of a healthy animal.
One of the first indication of disease in humans in weight instability.
From the training side, a horse goes through 3 phases
Early training- trading fat stores for muscle stores. Hope to keep the horse on their feed and even gain weight as they are "legging up".
Race training- As the foundation is being completed, putting "air" into the horse is a pivotal time. If horse lacks appetite at this stage, training might be taking a toll. Weight should be stable.
Maintenance-Once a horse "tucks up", keeping their appetite is critical as high calorie demand of both repairing and maintaining their weight is critical.

Not all horses maintain weight the same. I will use 3 quick examples based on 3 horses I actually trained.
Filly A- Was a bit hyperthyroid and metabolism was really high. She ate like a bird. Little bits of food all morning and would never dive into her tub. She would carry about 980-1010 and was taller and lanky. During training you had to work really hard and monitor her weight daily. If she started to loose weight you had to back off. If she kept her weight on through the first 3 weeks, she was golden. We could get 2 or 3 races over 6-8 weeks and she would loose weight after each race. We knew it was time to take her for R&R when she dropped 150 or more and after 5-7 days would not put it back on. She was measured daily with a weight tape.
Gelding B-Watched this one from a baby and he was a quiet unassuming type, but he loved his feed. When coming in as a 2 and 3 yr old, he would train so well and easily, plus that with a high calorie diet he get fat as a rat. It would take 2 or 3 races for him to tuck up and would gain up to 150 pounds in the process. As a 4 yo his metabolism matured and he came in and won first out paying 98 dollars to win.
Filly C- Very small 900 lb soaking wet type router, older mare that ate like a champ when she was going to run well and the first sign of her weight changing either told you to enter her or shelf her for 2 weeks. Her weight would have to stay either higher or static or this was the first sign that her old ankle was starting to flare up, usually before any inflammation was carried.
So while every horse is different, I feel there are 3 stages of weight.
Transformation of sedentary weight to fitness weight. Looking for the target.
Once fitness weight is obtained, muscle weight is obtained and this is the pivotal weight to see if the horse is really taking to the training.
The combination of muscle weight and fitness weight together make the horse the complete athlete. Once the horse is legged up, has air, and is race fit with a good tuck and a tight gaskin, this is IMHO the ideal weight.

To be able to put that pattern together with data reported by the tracks would be a big help for me as I have already been using it to determine form at Sha Tin.
The closest that I can come in the US is to take careful paddock notes, pay attention to workouts, and see how trainers are entering with regard to the condition book.
The more I play Hong Kong, the more I realize how much the U.S. is still very much like the "wild west".

[Tom]

Serious question - if weights were reported, would you believe them?

[Frost king]

The same way you believe workouts in the morning.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Tom

Serious question - if weights were reported, would you believe them?

If the penalty for misreporting a weight was strict and uniformly enforced with a precedent for being penalized, Yes I would.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

If the penalty for misreporting a weight was strict and uniformly enforced with a precedent for being penalized, Yes I would.

Like DRUGS are today?

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Tom

Like DRUGS are today?

In every jurisdiction for the most part with exception to U.S. racing.



Since working nights and playing a lot more foreign tracks, for what I have given up with regards to canned data for U.S. tracks, the data that is available for free that is way more in depth and actually reported is phenomenal.
The fact that you joke about it Tom, does not really bother me as much as the apathy for an industry that does not really believe that it actually can change.
In my mind the solution is to treat the player as a potential owner just like the stock market and provide all the data for free. How the data is parceled out after that is everybody else's problem. Compare it to the stock market.
Could you find enough data for free to make an informed buying decision?
Is the data you find going to be correct? How does this level of information that is available for the stock market compare to what we accept in horse racing.
I could buy a stock with the info, but no way would I claim a horse based on the info. I could claim a horse in Hong Kong, no problem as the entire history of the horse is public property.
And what I find kind of funny about it, is that our industry is just responding to a dying fan base by increasing the amount of wagers available, and creating more and more casino fueled courses to keep our mind furthered scrambled.

I would venture to guess there are more than of us that would pay 4 times what we are paying for data, for taped morning works, a barn to paddock cam including cool out, and access to all vet records, including the aforementioned weight.

[cj]

I'd like to hear from those that actually use the horse's weight as a betting angle. Because like I said, at Freehold, the theory didn't match the reality. Weights were all over the place and didn't match up to performance most of the time. They had a scale and it wasn't like the trainer was reporting the weight and fudging, they were accurate race day weights.

[Cratos]

[QUOTE=turninforhome10]In every jurisdiction for the most part with exception to U.S. racing.



Since working nights and playing a lot more foreign tracks, for what I have given up with regards to canned data for U.S. tracks, the data that is available for free that is way more in depth and actually reported is phenomenal.
The fact that you joke about it Tom, does not really bother me as much as the apathy for an industry that does not really believe that it actually can change.
In my mind the solution is to treat the player as a potential owner just like the stock market and provide all the data for free. How the data is parceled out after that is everybody else's problem. Compare it to the stock market.
Could you find enough data for free to make an informed buying decision?
Is the data you find going to be correct? How does this level of information that is available for the stock market compare to what we accept in horse racing.
I could buy a stock with the info, but no way would I claim a horse based on the info. I could claim a horse in Hong Kong, no problem as the entire history of the horse is public property.
And what I find kind of funny about it, is that our industry is just responding to a dying fan base by increasing the amount of wagers available, and creating more and more casino fueled courses to keep our mind furthered scrambled.

I would venture to guess there are more than of us that would pay 4 times what we are paying for data, for taped morning works, a barn to paddock cam including cool out, and access to all vet records, including the aforementioned weight.[/QUOTE ]
Another great well expressed post!!!!

[Greyfox]

Over the Christmas period my weight went up. I'm definitely slower in January.

(Intuitively, I'm inclined to think that knowing a horse's weight is next to useless, unless you know the weight that it was when it turned in an optimal performance.)

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by cj

I'd like to hear from those that actually use the horse's weight as a betting angle. Because like I said, at Freehold, the theory didn't match the reality. Weights were all over the place and didn't match up to performance most of the time. They had a scale and it wasn't like the trainer was reporting the weight and fudging, they were accurate race day weights.

I don't doubt your experience at Freehold, but the science and the practice supports the evidence that the weight of the animal is essential in determining its fitness for a good performance.

Therefore the real question should not be why "weight" matter, but why the racetracks are not collecting or urging the data providers to collect it and provide it to the bettors with the rest of the data they currently provide to the bettors.