Santa Anita Morning Line

[Dark Horse]

I'm interested in anything that brings horse racing into the modern age. And there are countless improvements within easy reach. It would be fairly simple to write a ML program, so that the process is computerized (and standardized, possibly for all tracks...). My own horse racing and sports programs are far more complex than something like this would require. It would take about a month to get the basic outline, and another two months to finetune and optimize everything.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Vince Bruun

Wow, it's hard for me to believe the comments in this thread, especially personal attacks toward a man I have known to be nothing but a hard-working, knowledgeable and courteous professional for decades in the Thoroughbred industry. I've never met a morning line maker yet who doesn't make an occasional mistake, and perhaps a scientific study comparing line makers from each circuit would yield more concrete evidence?

All I asked of the MLs is that the selections are in the correct betting order and that they add up. Do you know whether Jon still does these by hand? I could write a quick computer program. All I need is the size of the field and the horses’ last three beyers. It would do a better job than what he’s doing now. At least they'd add up!

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by Redboard

All I asked of the MLs is that the selections are in the correct betting order and that they add up. Do you know whether Jon still does these by hand? I could write a quick computer program. All I need is the size of the field and the horses’ last three beyers. It would do a better job than what he’s doing now. At least they'd add up!

As mentioned, a good program would go a long way. But you can't be serious about something that uses no more than the last three Beyers. White may not set the best ML's in the industry, but that doesn't mean his job is as utterly simplistic as you suggest.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

As mentioned, a good program would go a long way. But you can't be serious about something that uses no more than the last three Beyers. White may not set the best ML's in the industry, but that doesn't mean his job is as utterly simplistic as you suggest.

I would say you could use three things...any decent set of speed figures, trainer stats, and jockey stats and have a good morning line made automatically.

[maliksealy210]

Several Harness tracks, including Yonkers, use a fully automated product from Trackmaster and its results are almost incredible. Most horse end up 1-2 ticks off of the preset morning line. Now, obviously, it will be tougher to come up with the right formula set (post position is such a large part of Harness handicapping/betting and is a much more minimal factor in throughbred and even quarterhorse racing).

Here's a nice summary from Trackmaster on the Harness program

http://www.trackmaster.com/racetrack/morningline.pdf

[Redboard]

Another thing that annoys me is he frequently gives three or more the same odds. You rarely see Donavan do this, at least he takes a stand.
In yesterday’s 5th SA race all three of these(9,5,7) were 4-1 on the ML. Here’s there final odds:
#9: 2.2
#5: 4.2
#7: 7.8

This was a claiming race for 4+, so there was plenty of history to look at. No scratches. I’m Ok with two horses being the same value, but more than that is just lazy handicapping IMO.

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by cj

I would say you could use three things...any decent set of speed figures, trainer stats, and jockey stats and have a good morning line made automatically.

It's a fascinating problem once you start thinking about it. These lines, and their movement, are quite different than in sports. The house is not at risk by offering lines that are off, so there is some playing room. And there may be a purpose to that playing room. A linesmaker may know that a 3/2 horse will go off at 4/5, a huge difference in percentage, but he will still set the line at 3/2. So very early on in the project an underlying philosophy would have to be clearly defined. If the linesmaker is so accurate that there is zero line movement in the half hour before the race, that would probably not be an ideal situation. The goal is betting action. So what kind of margins attract the most action?

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by mabred

wish he would at least do the morning line before
3pm the day before they race.They are always the
last one to have the program done.Guess like he
would rather tout horses.

Mabred

The culprit might be whoever builds and types in the program. And the delay may well be beyond that person's control. The task no doubt falls to a racing official, and, customarily, racing officials put individual tasks on the backburner if entries are light and the crew is hustling.

I'm sure Santa Anita is more fully staffed than Mnr, but the guy who does our program is also one of our better race-hustlers, so I don't even let him read proof until a closing time is set, and entries are filled to my satisfaction.

[Dark Horse]

FWIW, race 5 at SA right now. Ten minutes to go, not one line has moved more than 5% from the ML.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

FWIW, race 5 at SA right now. Ten minutes to go, not one line has moved more than 5% from the ML.

JW nailed this one pretty good, kudos when its due.

(not to mention the odd show bet on the 8 )

[bets]

Originally Posted by Valento

http://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222

as official morning-line odds maker my job is to predict, as accurately as possible, how the betting public will wager on each race.

Also remember that the betting public can be wrong. I take a lot of pride in the accuracy of my morning line. If I've installed a horse at 8-1 in the program, and they're on the board at 25-1, chances are that horse is an "overlay" and may be worth a bet. On the flip side if I've pegged a horse a 5-1, there are no significant scratches, and that horse is sitting on the board at 5-2, that horse is probably an "underlay" and isn't offering the value you should be looking for.

What he is saying in the first does not match with the second

[mountainman]

Pertaining to morning-line point totals, I'm a stickler and stay within narrow parameters, but my thinking on odds-makers that overshoot the number (even drastically) has evolved a bit.

Before just such an odds-maker stepped up and gave a sharply critical Steven Crist a surprisingly credible debate on this topic, I was dismissive, even contemptuous of soaring point totals. Being a traditionalist in at least one regard- the guy's personal template did not include 7-1, 9-1, 11-1 (etc..etc..) price points- he had reasoned that rounding each, or at least numerous horses down to his next lower price point could logically result in staggering point totals.

And his argument was not without merit. Imagine an actual field with the real-time tote rounding each horse down nearly a full point (even as opposed to said odds-maker's near 2 point round-downs), and the board totals surprisingly high. Check out an actual tote board, and you will see that this DOES happen. Not often, but on occasion.

Even Crist was somewhat receptive to the guy's explanation.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by bets

What he is saying in the first does not match with the second

He's trying to have it both ways. Believe me, as track-odds-makers and prideful human beings, we all do. I posted that earlier.

[Stillriledup]

THe ML in the 1st at Sam Houston...there was a horse 3-1 ML in there that was horrible on paper. Anyone see this?

[bets]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Even Crist was somewhat receptive to the guy's explanation.

Was this debated on this board?